Integrated Thermodynamic and Microphysical Framework for Thunderstorm and Lightning Prediction over Bangladesh

Integrated Thermodynamic and Microphysical Framework for Thunderstorm and Lightning Prediction over Bangladesh | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Integrated Thermodynamic and Microphysical Framework for Thunderstorm and Lightning Prediction over Bangladesh Pappu Paul, Jannatul Ferdous Jerin This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8310767/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Bangladesh is located within the highly lightning-prone region (30N-30S belt) and experiences significant casualties and property loss, particularly during the pre-monsoon and monsoon season due to lightning activity. Traditional thunderstorm and lightning forecasting methods are mostly rely on thermodynamic instability indices. These indices have limitations in forecasting the intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of the lightning. Recent advances in high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) have facilitated the development of microphysics and cloud electrification-based techniques, such as the Lightning Potential Index (LPI) and Lightning Flash Density (LFD). They improve lightning forecasts with greater spatial accuracy but have a very shorter lead time. This study investigates four severe thunderstorm events occurring between May and July 2023 over Bangladesh using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with electrification scheme (WRF-Elec). Here, we investigate an integrated approach of thermodynamic and microphysical framework to improve lightning forecasting in both temporal and spatial dimensions. We find that microphysical fields like maximum reflectivity, LPI, and LFD capture the lightning activity with 2-6 hours lead time and spatial accuracy of 1.5×1.5 deg boundary. On the other hand, the conventional thermodynamic fields predict convective activity 12-18 hours lead time but provide the information of little to no spatial boundary. In the integrated approach combining microphysical and thermodynamic fields we find the lightning prediction with a significantly larger lead time while maintaining spatial accuracy for lightning activity. These results suggest that the integrated microphysical–thermodynamic approach should be further tested and incorporated into operational lightning prediction systems over Bangladesh. Microphysics Thermodynamics LPI LFD WRF-Elec Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8310767","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":588481483,"identity":"60aa0c44-aef5-4396-b075-41351024470e","order_by":0,"name":"Pappu Paul","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA0ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFADduYDEmCGBIMBkVqY2RJI1sJjQJwWc/azxx7zMNyRNzjM8/E2D4OdPIN08wa8Wix78tKNeRieGW44zLvZmoch2bBB5lgBXi0GB3LMpHkYDjMCtWwDMpgTGCRy8DvM4PwbsBb7DYd5ngEZ9URouQGxJRGohQ3EIKzFcsa7dMM5Bs+SZx5mM7acY3DcsI2QX8z5c489eFNxx7bvePPDG28qquX5CYWYAQMPGygQ4FwGNrzq4VoYDhBSNwpGwSgYBSMZAABuEz506koOxQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"University of Dhaka","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Pappu","middleName":"","lastName":"Paul","suffix":""},{"id":588481487,"identity":"25497d00-e998-490f-be23-3b7e1a9e7de1","order_by":1,"name":"Jannatul Ferdous Jerin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Dhaka","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jannatul","middleName":"Ferdous","lastName":"Jerin","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-12-08 19:53:18","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8310767/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8310767/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105728811,"identity":"6c322d2a-4699-4b95-a93a-a363f1f622c7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-30 11:12:45","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1883467,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscriptwithlinenum.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8310767/v1_covered_74af928c-c618-4765-9d87-12fb21082e23.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Integrated Thermodynamic and Microphysical Framework for Thunderstorm and Lightning Prediction over Bangladesh","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":true,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Microphysics, Thermodynamics, LPI, LFD, WRF-Elec","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8310767/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8310767/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Bangladesh is located within the highly lightning-prone region (30N-30S belt) and experiences significant casualties and property loss, particularly during the pre-monsoon and monsoon season due to lightning activity. 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