Simulating the End of Work and Money: A Microsimulation of AGI-Driven Automation

Simulating the End of Work and Money: A Microsimulation of AGI-Driven Automation | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Simulating the End of Work and Money: A Microsimulation of AGI-Driven Automation Fabien Furfaro This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8408333/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The potential for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) to automate a wide range of economically relevant tasks raises important questions about the future of labor markets. This paper presents a microsimulation framework in which firms iteratively adjust their automation levels within a repeated non-cooperative game, structurally analogous to the Prisoner's Dilemma. Firms balance the competitive advantages of out-automating rivals against the costs of implementation, leading to context-dependent equilibrium outcomes. Simulations indicate that automation adoption patterns vary with competitive pressure and cost structures: high competitive intensity is associated with near-complete automation in some sectors, while higher implementation costs are associated with partial labor substitution in others. These dynamics suggest that unregulated competitive interactions may generate socially suboptimal automation levels, motivating the exploration of policy instruments such as automation taxation or universal basic income mechanisms funded by AGI-generated rents. The study contributes to the literature by isolating competitive incentives as a potential driver of automation, distinct from purely technological or macroeconomic determinants, and by highlighting the role of institutional design in shaping the economic impact of AGI. Social Work AGI Game Theory Society Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8408333","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":563196571,"identity":"0060f174-d197-431b-a84e-25058859d11d","order_by":0,"name":"Fabien Furfaro","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABBklEQVRIie2PsWrDMBRFnzA0ixqv8l9oEhSM/SFdFATp0nT2EIq8KFM+oB+RtWSUEXRS4zXFS7KXktIpQ6GvSSjtYJtuheqAeBLcw30CCAT+IANNweKMAcgGZ4qHlLZLofaoJBoijnP8qeheBb4p7vDqVgaPlX1dAuONI29FUWeLmcOWaXrZqtAbWd15VFYqSrxv1L0fofIwnugWJYdr7s4N3HIf26Q0jRIWFaJdq0LjZ+7eDbb4KNqXZqVEve1RGLaQo3KGLTYT674W9iKruWEsQeVCeyXFGltkx19oPHG7vUnZEBd70kWWi/pqu9lN01blBPu6jQ5J2R3/Sf6bcCAQCPwPPgA1h2Kg+K2uDQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1997-1141","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fabien","middleName":"","lastName":"Furfaro","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-12-19 21:55:23","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8408333/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8408333/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":99308207,"identity":"2fa8bcc3-f399-4ef0-8bb9-339d43df063f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-31 16:08:00","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":496490,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"furfaro2025agiv2.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8408333/v1_covered_5eaeef2b-c4d5-4eb3-8682-57a95906da96.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eSimulating the End of Work and Money: A Microsimulation of AGI-Driven Automation\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"AGI, Game Theory, Society","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8408333/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8408333/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe potential for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) to automate a wide range of economically relevant tasks raises important questions about the future of labor markets. 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