Assessing rainfall and extreme weather variability for climate resilient agricultural production systems in Nigeria

Assessing rainfall and extreme weather variability for climate resilient agricultural production systems in Nigeria | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Assessing rainfall and extreme weather variability for climate resilient agricultural production systems in Nigeria Olawale Emmanuel Olayide, T.R. Alabi, John Oyedepo, Richardson Okechukwu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3808332/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Nigeria's food production heavily relies on smallholder rainfed agriculture. Unfortunately, this sector is highly vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change, such as floods and droughts. It is crucial to examine the frequency, intensity, and magnitude of these events and develop effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to ensure the resilience of Nigeria's agricultural system. This study analyses rainfall variability in Nigeria's agroecological zones (AEZs) over the past sixty years. The research evaluates annual, quarterly, and seasonal rainfall patterns and uses the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to examine drought and flood frequency and intensity. The study's findings reveal that the period from 1981 to 1990 experienced the weakest rainfall patterns across all AEZs, while the best occurred from 1961 to 1970. The humid forest zone consistently received the highest rainfall, although with a declining trend over the decades. Conversely, the Arid/Sahel and Semi-arid zones exhibited the lowest with a slight upward trend in precipitation, while others experienced a reduction. Spatial analysis of drought patterns also reveals that most of the AEZs face high drought risks, with over 65% of the country experiencing a considerable increase in drought in the last three decades. The rainfall pattern was less erratic in zones of lower latitudes than in the higher altitudes. Heavy rainfall events exceeding 10 mm and 20 mm revealed a decreasing trend from the Arid to the Humid Forest zone. Extreme weather events have significant economic consequences. Policymakers and stakeholders must take action to ensure climate resilient and sustainable agricultural production systems. Geospatial data Rainfall variability Nigerian Agroecology Extremes of Weather Climate Mitigation for Agriculture Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3808332","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":265091605,"identity":"0f6e5de8-d1bf-4ef0-b59e-fcd43ad27040","order_by":0,"name":"Olawale Emmanuel Olayide","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA8UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFAC5gYGhgIGBjaGBMYHDAwHiNHCCNRiANbCbECaFgaGBDYJorQYHD/Y+OCDgV1iH3vysWqemjty/AzMDx/dwKflTGKz4QyD5MQ2nmdpt3mOPTOWbGAzNs7Bo8XsQGKbNI8Bc2KbRI7ZbR62w4kbDvCwSePVcv5h+28eg3qglvxvxTz/iNFyI7GNmcfgMMgWNmbeNiK02N942Cw5w+C4MdAvxpJz+w4bSzYT8Itkf/LBDx8qqmXntyc//PDm22E5fvbmh4/xaYEBxwYgwcQDYjIToRzsQBDB+INI1aNgFIyCUTCyAABdLVCPlKrRpQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"University of Ibadan","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Olawale","middleName":"Emmanuel","lastName":"Olayide","suffix":""},{"id":265091606,"identity":"fbbc6eef-0390-4ab2-ac68-7363271e6ac5","order_by":1,"name":"T.R. 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Unfortunately, this sector is highly vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change, such as floods and droughts. It is crucial to examine the frequency, intensity, and magnitude of these events and develop effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to ensure the resilience of Nigeria's agricultural system. This study analyses rainfall variability in Nigeria's agroecological zones (AEZs) over the past sixty years. The research evaluates annual, quarterly, and seasonal rainfall patterns and uses the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to examine drought and flood frequency and intensity. The study's findings reveal that the period from 1981 to 1990 experienced the weakest rainfall patterns across all AEZs, while the best occurred from 1961 to 1970. The humid forest zone consistently received the highest rainfall, although with a declining trend over the decades. 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