Modeling the interplay between disease spread, behaviors, and disease perception with a data-driven approach

Abstract Individuals’ perceptions of disease influence their adherence to preventive measures, shaping the dynamics of disease spread. Despite extensive research on the interaction between disease spread, human behaviors, and interventions, few models have incorporated real-world behavioral data on disease perception, limiting their applicability. This study novelly integrates disease perception, represented by perceived severity, as a critical determinant of behavioral change into a data-driven compartmental model to assess its impact on disease spread. Using survey data, we explore scenarios involving a competition between a COVID-19 wave and a vaccination campaign, where individuals’ behaviors vary based on their perceived severity of the disease. Results demonstrate that behavioral heterogeneities influenced by perceived severity affect epidemic dynamics, with high heterogeneity yielding contrasting effects. Longer adherence to protective measures by groups with high perceived severity provides greater protection to vulnerable individuals, while premature relaxation of behaviors by low perceived severity groups facilitates virus spread. Epidemiological curves reveal that differences in behavior among groups can eliminate a second infection peak, resulting in a higher first peak and overall more severe outcomes. The specific modeling approach for how perceived severity modulates behavior parameters does not strongly impact the model’s outcomes. Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness of our findings, emphasizing the consistent impact of behavioral heterogeneities across various scenarios. Our study underscores the importance of integrating risk perception into infectious disease transmission models and highlights the necessity of extensive data collection to enhance model accuracy and relevance. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Funding Statement This study was funded by the VERDI project (101045989), funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed in this article are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the Health and Digital Executive Agency. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them. This study was funded by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) project DATAREDUX (ANR-19-CE46-0008). Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The Committee for Bioethics, Protocol number 47744, of the University of Turin gave ethical approval for this work. I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes Data Availability All data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors