Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment in The Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment in The Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment in The Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia Shofia Karima, Hamzah Latief, Iyan E. Mulia This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7771651/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment → Version 1 posted 13 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Lesser Sunda Islands (comprising Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, and East Nusa Tenggara) are situated between three seismic sources: the subduction zone, the fold-thrust back (FTB), and the back-arc thrust fault system in the north. The combined activity of these three sources makes the region highly vulnerable to tsunami hazards. The high population density in coastal areas and the presence of critical infrastructure in this region increase the urgency of conducting a tsunami hazard assessment. This study aims to analyze the tsunami hazard using a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) based on a Green’s function approach, derived from simulations of the Shallow Water Equation (SWE). A total of 10,120 tsunami scenarios were developed from 9 fault sources using the stochastic slip distribution based on the Von Karman correlation function. All faults were divided into 108 subfaults to estimate the response of the tsunami wave at 255 observation points. The locations with the highest frequency per year for waves exceeding 1 m include Jembrana and Buleleng, northern and southern Sumbawa, as well as Sikka and west Manggarai. The tsunami hazard maps indicate that for a return period (RP) of 2475 years, more than 57% of the locations experience tsunami waves exceeding 3 m, with maximum heights reaching over 11 m. For the return period of 475 years, the rate is more than 0.4%, and for the return period of 72 years, there’s no location where the tsunami wave height exceeds 3 meters. The faults from the Bali subduction zone, the Sumbawa thrust, the Flores thrust, and the Timor FTB are the dominant contributors to the tsunami hazard in 20 strategic locations. Green’s function hazard curves hazard maps stochastic slip method Shallow Water Equation model and tsunami Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Supplementarymaterialfinal.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 09 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 09 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 02 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 29 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 08 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 07 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 Oct, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 05 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 05 Oct, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 04 Oct, 2025 First submitted to journal 03 Oct, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7771651","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":530044026,"identity":"bed8dada-dc76-4f63-845e-900d530b7fb8","order_by":0,"name":"Shofia Karima","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA1UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCQaGDwkGNnIGDIwNYAE2hgSCWhhnfKhIMyZNy8wZZw4nbkAIEdAiP7v5YDNvG3P6dunDbQ8Yftkw8LET0GJw51giUAtb7s6+xHYDxr40BjaeBwS0SOSYP+Zt48ndcIaxTYKx5zADmwQhh83IMQTaIpFuQLQWhhs5ho0zzhgkgLUw/CBCi8GNtMSGDxUJhjt7gFoSG9J4CPpFfkbywYYEg//y5jzszyQ+/LGRk28n5DAUkNjGwEOKehD4Q6qGUTAKRsEoGAkAANtsQxN6+UU7AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"National Research and Innovation Agency","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shofia","middleName":"","lastName":"Karima","suffix":""},{"id":530044027,"identity":"a5745814-2c62-4fcd-a3c7-7f4bc3aaf937","order_by":1,"name":"Hamzah Latief","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Bandung Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hamzah","middleName":"","lastName":"Latief","suffix":""},{"id":530044028,"identity":"8e9830cb-c0f5-4e28-b9ff-93866d018efa","order_by":2,"name":"Iyan E. 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Indonesia","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"stochastic-environmental-research-and-risk-assessment","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"serr","sideBox":"Learn more about [Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment](https://www.springer.com/journal/477)","snPcode":"477","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/477/3","title":"Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Green’s function, hazard curves, hazard maps, stochastic slip method, Shallow Water Equation model, and tsunami","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7771651/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7771651/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe Lesser Sunda Islands (comprising Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, and East Nusa Tenggara) are situated between three seismic sources: the subduction zone, the fold-thrust back (FTB), and the back-arc thrust fault system in the north. The combined activity of these three sources makes the region highly vulnerable to tsunami hazards. The high population density in coastal areas and the presence of critical infrastructure in this region increase the urgency of conducting a tsunami hazard assessment. This study aims to analyze the tsunami hazard using a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) based on a Green\u0026rsquo;s function approach, derived from simulations of the Shallow Water Equation (SWE). A total of 10,120 tsunami scenarios were developed from 9 fault sources using the stochastic slip distribution based on the Von Karman correlation function. All faults were divided into 108 subfaults to estimate the response of the tsunami wave at 255 observation points. The locations with the highest frequency per year for waves exceeding 1 m include Jembrana and Buleleng, northern and southern Sumbawa, as well as Sikka and west Manggarai. The tsunami hazard maps indicate that for a return period (RP) of 2475 years, more than 57% of the locations experience tsunami waves exceeding 3 m, with maximum heights reaching over 11 m. For the return period of 475 years, the rate is more than 0.4%, and for the return period of 72 years, there\u0026rsquo;s no location where the tsunami wave height exceeds 3 meters. The faults from the Bali subduction zone, the Sumbawa thrust, the Flores thrust, and the Timor FTB are the dominant contributors to the tsunami hazard in 20 strategic locations.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment in The Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-16 04:27:33","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7771651/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-11-09T11:27:58+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-11-09T07:00:42+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-11-03T01:27:51+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-10-30T02:12:17+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"7734484506033064643661032362267200607","date":"2025-10-10T06:49:11+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-10-08T06:30:34+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"227884164383117104831612871532083915996","date":"2025-10-08T01:54:58+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"323371885779337611017616307615944269461","date":"2025-10-06T05:44:13+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"264660744657965856083425562309084734016","date":"2025-10-05T13:09:20+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-10-05T11:57:44+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-10-05T10:36:25+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-10-04T17:01:46+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment","date":"2025-10-03T08:29:06+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"stochastic-environmental-research-and-risk-assessment","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"serr","sideBox":"Learn more about [Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment](https://www.springer.com/journal/477)","snPcode":"477","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/477/3","title":"Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"e250cff7-c849-4862-9243-1283becf488c","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 16th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-07T16:09:16+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-7771651","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-026-03208-z","journal":{"identity":"stochastic-environmental-research-and-risk-assessment","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment"},"publishedOn":"2026-04-01 16:00:10","publishedOnDateReadable":"April 1st, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-16 04:27:33","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s00477-026-03208-z","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-026-03208-z","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7771651","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7771651","identity":"rs-7771651","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}