Estimating dynamics of dengue disease with environmental impact by quantifying the per-capita vector density

Estimating dynamics of dengue disease with environmental impact by quantifying the per-capita vector density | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Estimating dynamics of dengue disease with environmental impact by quantifying the per-capita vector density Piyumi Chathurangika, Sanjeewa Perera, Kushani De Silva This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4158187/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 20 Oct, 2024 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 3 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted to humans by vectors of genus Aedes causing a global threat to health, social, and economic sectors in many of the tropical countries including Sri Lanka. In Sri Lanka, the tropical climate, marked by seasonal weather primarily influenced by monsoons, fosters optimal conditions for the virus to spread efficiently, especially during monsoon periods. This heightened transmission results in increased per-capita vector density. In this work, we investigate the dynamic influence of environmental conditions on dengue emergence in Colombo district- the geographical region with the highest recorded dengue threat in Sri Lanka. An iterative approach is employed to estimate dengue cases dynamically leveraging the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations, utilizing the dynamics of weather patterns governing in the region. The developed algorithm allows to estimate the risk of dengue outbreaks with high precision, facilitating accurate forecasts of upcoming disease emergence patterns for better preparedness. The uncertainty quantification not only validated the accuracy of outbreak estimates but also showcased the model's capacity to capture extreme cases and revealed undisclosed external factors that might affect dengue transmission. Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing/Applied mathematics Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing/Statistics Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementaryMaterial.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 20 Oct, 2024 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editor invited by journal 02 Apr, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 02 Apr, 2024 First submitted to journal 24 Mar, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4158187","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":286794565,"identity":"3a451dcb-14e3-4d1f-a6a7-ae9a01c1ec36","order_by":0,"name":"Piyumi Chathurangika","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Colombo","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Piyumi","middleName":"","lastName":"Chathurangika","suffix":""},{"id":286794566,"identity":"ab900da8-d482-46a8-8039-60dcaddd92b0","order_by":1,"name":"Sanjeewa Perera","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Colombo","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sanjeewa","middleName":"","lastName":"Perera","suffix":""},{"id":286794567,"identity":"22fdc61c-0b2a-484e-80da-0e46e45f8774","order_by":2,"name":"Kushani De Silva","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABB0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACCYYEBoaEAgYGfiCHGSoEAhYG+LUApSUbGBibkbRI4NfCAJQ2OECsFsn25MMfHhgclje+dvj544I/DPK6sxsYP/xgkDDGpUWa51maRILBYcNtt9MMm2e2MRhuu3OAWbKHQcIMlxY5iRwzoF/SGLfdTjBs5m1gSDC7kcAgDXSYDW4t+Z8/ALXYb56d/rGZ5w9YC/NvfFqkJXIYgA6zSdwgnWPYzMMG1sIGsgWnwyR7npmBtCTPuJ1TOJu3TQLol4Ntlj0GuL0vcTz58ccfFRK2/bPTN3zm+WMjb3a7+fCNHxU2hg249KAbAcSMDeCYGgWjYBSMglFAPgAAOQhRjMiliWgAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"University of Colombo","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kushani","middleName":"","lastName":"De Silva","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-03-24 13:30:59","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4158187/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4158187/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-76176-5","type":"published","date":"2024-10-20T15:57:41+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":67149026,"identity":"be5a5e53-839e-4b43-beb3-69655b9497ec","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-10-21 16:11:06","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":597180,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4158187/v1_covered_c3acd913-70a6-4a0f-95b5-3e0aa512c8a1.pdf"},{"id":54141298,"identity":"47dacdb7-d52e-47e9-930a-09af0eed0fc5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-04-05 08:01:05","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":81649,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryMaterial.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4158187/v1/6231667bf93e9b94f291455f.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Estimating dynamics of dengue disease with environmental impact by quantifying the per-capita vector density","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4158187/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4158187/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted to humans by vectors of genus Aedes causing a global threat to health, social, and economic sectors in many of the tropical countries including Sri Lanka. 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