Integrating planetary boundaries into energy system optimisation models for absolute environmental sustainability  assessment:  a methodological framework

Integrating planetary boundaries into energy system optimisation models for absolute environmental sustainability assessment: a methodological framework | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Integrating planetary boundaries into energy system optimisation models for absolute environmental sustainability assessment: a methodological framework Nicolas Ghuys, Diederik Coppitters, Anne van den Oever, Mahdi Kchaou, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8251250/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 14 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Transforming energy systems to address climate change must avoid shifting burdens to other planetary boundaries. Yet most energy models still focus primarily on greenhouse gas reduction, often neglecting broader life-cycle impacts on critical Earth-system processes. This narrow scope can unintentionally shift environmental pressures from climate to land, materials, or ecosystems, even in scenarios deemed sustainable. To address this gap, we present a modeling framework that integrates prospective life cycle assessment and planetary boundary metrics into a national energy optimization model. The framework first integrates life-cycle and planetary-boundary metrics into a multi-objective optimization model, then uses goal programming to characterize the different trade-offs in environmental impacts, and finally applies interpretable machine learning to streamline the overwhelming set of trade-offs into system archetypes. Applied to a 2045 low-carbon scenario for Belgium as a case study, the approach reveals that all near-optimal pathways meet the climate target but exceed boundaries for ecotoxicity and particulate matter under the most permissive downscaling principle, indicating that decarbonization alone is insufficient for absolute sustainability. From the near-optimum space exploration and interpretable machine learning, four distinct system configurations emerge-dominated respectively by electrification, hydrogen, renewable power capacity, or mixed strategies-each achieving similar costs yet distinct environmental trade-offs. Future extensions of this work should incorporate dynamic demand changes, and behavioral adaptations to further align energy systems with absolute sustainability targets. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Scientific community and society/Energy and society Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 30 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 22 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 22 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 19 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Dec, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 10 Dec, 2025 Editor invited by journal 09 Dec, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 04 Dec, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 04 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 01 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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