The effect of space, time and night-time light intensity on antenatal care coverage in Bangladesh

The effect of space, time and night-time light intensity on antenatal care coverage in Bangladesh | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The effect of space, time and night-time light intensity on antenatal care coverage in Bangladesh Bernard Baffour, Sumonkanti Das, Ashis Talukder, Alice Richardson This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5950293/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 25 Aug, 2025 Read the published version in Spatial Demography → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper presents a small area estimation approach to assess trends in antenatal care (ANC) coverage among reproductive-age women in Bangladesh at various disaggregated levels. A multinomial multilevel time-series model is developed using district (admin-2) level ANC coverage data, categorizing women into three groups: (i) those with no ANC visits (ANC0), (ii) those with 1-3 visits (ANC123), and (iii) those with four or more visits (ANC4 +). The model accounts for the distinct behavioral profiles of each group in relation to factors influencing maternal health coverage, using remote-sensed night-time light intensity data to provide improved estimates. Our proposed small area model-based estimators incorporate significant social, economic, and geographical disparities, allowing us to identify regions exhibiting progress, stagnation, or decline. The model-based estimates demonstrate improved precision over direct estimates and provide valuable insights for designing targeted interventions to maximize impact. Additionally, a 1 spatio-temporal extension of the multinomial multilevel logistic model has yielded further refined estimates, helping to uncover disparities in the trends of maternal health care access. In Bangladesh, as in many developing countries, the health system operates under a decentralized structure, making district-level statistics crucial for localized planning and decision-making to ensure health equity. Bayesian approach Geographic disparities Remote-sensed data Multinomial multilevel time-series model Small area estimation Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 25 Aug, 2025 Read the published version in Spatial Demography → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5950293","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":410760250,"identity":"03a60416-2525-4773-a6ff-e43e7811082e","order_by":0,"name":"Bernard Baffour","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"School of Demography, Australian National University, 146 Ellery Crescent, CANBERRA, 2600, ACT, Australia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bernard","middleName":"","lastName":"Baffour","suffix":""},{"id":410760251,"identity":"7feaa94f-77aa-457a-9f36-5c5efaf7e4e9","order_by":1,"name":"Sumonkanti Das","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Research School of Finance, Actuarial Studies and Statistics, Australian National University, 26C Kingsley Street, CANBERRA, 2600, ACT, Australia.","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sumonkanti","middleName":"","lastName":"Das","suffix":""},{"id":410760252,"identity":"3d2dc302-b1e4-4b85-a239-86cf7ae95d78","order_by":2,"name":"Ashis Talukder","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABEElEQVRIie3PMUvDQBjG8TcU0uWs60mg+Qrv0UEKjfkqCQdxKY7iKAg3iV0r6HfIKji8IaBLbNaDLrp0UrBboB28tggKnnF0uP+QkJAf9wTA5fqXMaDNrQc+cIDR58tWggZsSfY3Al9I2U72J09F0cA69HmW6uV9HR7yxHt+UxAi/Uy4PklKBigUz8rhdDEXd9OkI24ViNxCQDM0Y9BT/FgFjOZerhM/2FPg2UhYV2iGYbwla5rFhnRXhsQ2gjRGMsNSM+whAKJ0c0rHkNRGhB5jyXAgFVvI4SVJmVcvFwc3My6vLaRfV4Nlc9aPJt1M6IaOovxRFu+vp6Poyvb7u3nfnrxzc+G/fe9yuVyulj4AVb9dlVCBBx0AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, 62 Mills Rd, CANBERRA, 2600, ACT, Australia.","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ashis","middleName":"","lastName":"Talukder","suffix":""},{"id":410760253,"identity":"99424e5c-09f2-463d-8d98-624f7adbf416","order_by":3,"name":"Alice Richardson","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Statistical Support Network, Australian National University, Ellery Crescent, CANBERRA, 2600, ACT, Australia.","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alice","middleName":"","lastName":"Richardson","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-02-03 10:38:10","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5950293/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5950293/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40980-025-00144-4","type":"published","date":"2025-08-25T15:56:53+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":90344838,"identity":"d40150d4-da99-45af-9907-fc469d64e719","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-01 16:05:09","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":17632276,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ManuscriptSPDSubmissionJBLK.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5950293/v1_covered_3c00722c-015e-4d0b-bbb6-3628bd57b50e.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"The effect of space, time and night-time light intensity on antenatal care coverage in Bangladesh","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Bayesian approach, Geographic disparities, Remote-sensed data, Multinomial multilevel time-series model, Small area estimation","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5950293/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5950293/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"This paper presents a small area estimation approach to assess trends in antenatal care (ANC) coverage among reproductive-age women in Bangladesh at various disaggregated levels. 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