From environmental constraint to strategic fixation: A hierarchical decision model of the Dunhuang–Loulan Silk Road corridor

From environmental constraint to strategic fixation: A hierarchical decision model of the Dunhuang–Loulan Silk Road corridor | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article From environmental constraint to strategic fixation: A hierarchical decision model of the Dunhuang–Loulan Silk Road corridor Xiaoting Jin, Zhilin Shi, Chengbang An This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8803383/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Dunhuang–Loulan segment of the Silk Road was a key corridor linking the Hexi Corridor with the Tarim Basin during the Western Han dynasty, yet the mechanisms driving its route formation remain elusive. This study employs a multi-scenario Least cost path (LCP) framework to examine how environmental constraints, subsistence requirements, and state strategies jointly shaped this route. Three sequential scenarios were constructed to represent geography-driven feasibility, resource-oriented adaptation, and strategy-constrained routing, based on terrain, hydrological data, archaeological site distributions, and historically documented control points. The results show that topography and hydrology initially restricted movement to a narrow feasibility corridor centered on the Aqik Valley. Within this corridor, water sources and beacon sites redirected the route toward lower-risk areas, producing systematic deviations from the terrain-optimal path. The final route configuration emerged only after strategic constraints were imposed, closely aligning with historically reconstructed routes. These findings indicate that route formation followed a hierarchical decision process rather than a single-factor optimization, providing a quantitative framework for explaining why ancient routes formed where they did. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Silk Road Route formation Hierarchical decision model Least cost path analysis Dunhuang-Loulan Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8803383","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":600847147,"identity":"c975da99-d6f5-49f3-a8aa-ed27f8bde107","order_by":0,"name":"Xiaoting Jin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Fudan University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiaoting","middleName":"","lastName":"Jin","suffix":""},{"id":600847148,"identity":"f428fd5d-881e-4843-9b58-d181e4baa5e7","order_by":1,"name":"Zhilin Shi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Lanzhou University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhilin","middleName":"","lastName":"Shi","suffix":""},{"id":600847149,"identity":"7dd0caa3-962f-4f3a-96cf-b02a56ad7530","order_by":2,"name":"Chengbang An","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAArUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCSD+UABmGhCvhXGGAalamHlI0sI/u/nZYxuDusQG9uZtEgw1d4iw5M4xc+McA7bEBp5jZRIMx54R1mIgkWAmnWPAk9ggkWMmwdhwmBgt6d+kLQwkEhvk3xCtJcdMmsHAAGgLD5FaJO6cKZPsMUgwbuNJK7ZIOEaEFv7Z7dskflTUyfazH95440MNEVrggA1EJJCgYRSMglEwCkYBHgAA/vIwYmBSXa4AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Fudan University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chengbang","middleName":"","lastName":"An","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-06 06:38:29","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8803383/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8803383/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108803892,"identity":"50739f02-4113-437e-80a9-3cda08c6e1b7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-08 15:10:06","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":923306,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Fromenvironmentalconstrainttostrategicfixation.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8803383/v1_covered_5767fe38-83a4-4ea3-8e9d-e5349c4a8bf0.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"From environmental constraint to strategic fixation: A hierarchical decision model of the Dunhuang–Loulan Silk Road corridor","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Silk Road, Route formation, Hierarchical decision model, Least cost path analysis, Dunhuang-Loulan","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8803383/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8803383/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe Dunhuang\u0026ndash;Loulan segment of the Silk Road was a key corridor linking the Hexi Corridor with the Tarim Basin during the Western Han dynasty, yet the mechanisms driving its route formation remain elusive. 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