Analysis of the Temporal Dynamics of Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya in Ecuador: Emergency Patterns and Associations Epidemiological (1988-2024)

Abstract Summary This study analyzes the temporal dynamics and possible epidemiological interactions of three arboviruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes in Ecuador: den-gue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV) and chikungunya (CHIKV), during the period 1988-2024. Using national epidemiological data, we examined incidence patterns, potential associations between these diseases, and their relationship with temporal factors. The results reveal cyclical patterns of dengue, with established endemicity and notable epidemic peaks (1994, 2000, 2015, 2024), with transmission progressively expanding to ecologically diverse regions. Zika and chikungunya showed more recent explosive introductions, with significant outbreaks concentrated in 2015–2017, followed by a dramatic decline. The analysis suggests a complex epidemiological interaction, where the emergence of one arbovirus seems to coincide with changes in the incidence of another. Population immunity, vector dynamics influenced by socioecological and climatic factors, and public health responses likely modulate these patterns. This study underscores the need for integrated surveillance and adaptive control strategies for these arboviruses in Ecuador. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Funding Statement funding statement is not mentioned in the provided document Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: This study is based on aggregated and anonymized public health surveillance data and therefore did not require specific ethical approval. I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes Data Availability The data used in the study comes from the Ministry of Public Health (MSP) of Ecuador through its national surveillance system, and the GIDEON database (https://app.gideononline.com/start)