Assessing Climate Variability and Long-Term Trends in Agroecological Zones of Rajasthan: A Non-Parametric Trend Analysis

Assessing Climate Variability and Long-Term Trends in Agroecological Zones of Rajasthan: A Non-Parametric Trend Analysis | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Assessing Climate Variability and Long-Term Trends in Agroecological Zones of Rajasthan: A Non-Parametric Trend Analysis Suresh Kumar Bishnoi, Sreenanda S Anand, Kishan K, Siddhesh Sunil Zade, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9151742/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate variability and long-term changes in temperature and rainfall have significant implications for agricultural sustainability and water resource management in arid and semi-arid regions. Rajasthan, being one of the most climate-sensitive states of India, frequently experiences extreme temperature conditions and irregular rainfall patterns. Understanding long-term climatic trends is therefore essential for effective planning and adaptation strategies. The present study examines the trends and variability in maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and rainfall across selected districts of Rajasthan over a long-term period from 1951 to 2021. Ten districts representing different agro-climatic conditions of the state-Ajmer, Banswara, Bharatpur, Bikaner, Jaisalmer, Jalore, Nagaur, Sri Ganganagar, Tonk, and Udaipur-were selected for the analysis. The study employed descriptive statistics and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test to detect trends in climatic variables. The results reveal noticeable changes in temperature patterns across the study region. The Mann-Kendall test indicates a significant increasing trend in minimum temperature in several districts, particularly in Tonk, Bikaner, Sri Ganganagar, and Nagaur, suggesting a gradual warming of night-time temperatures over the past seven decades. Maximum temperature also shows a moderate increasing trend in many districts, reflecting rising heat conditions during summer months. In contrast, rainfall trends show high variability with no consistent increasing pattern across districts, indicating irregular and uncertain rainfall distribution in the region. Descriptive statistics further highlight that the highest temperatures are generally recorded during May and June, while rainfall is largely concentrated during the monsoon months of July and August. Rising trends in minimum temperature may influence crop growth patterns, water demand, and pest dynamics, highlighting the need for climate-resilient crop management practices in the region. Additionally, the high variability and uncertainty in rainfall patterns emphasize the importance of improved water management strategies, such as rainwater harvesting, efficient irrigation systems, and drought preparedness measures. The analysis of long-term climatic trends provides useful insights for agricultural planning and resource management in Rajasthan and underscores the need for region-specific adaptation strategies to strengthen agricultural resilience under changing climatic conditions. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Scientific community and society/Water resources Climate Variability Temperature Rainfall Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Codes.docx Rainfall.xlsx Tmax.xlsx Tmin.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers invited by journal 29 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 21 Apr, 2026 Editor invited by journal 14 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 05 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 05 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9151742","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":631571141,"identity":"ad95e117-964f-4d72-a45e-ead24212e050","order_by":0,"name":"Suresh Kumar Bishnoi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Dairy Research Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Suresh","middleName":"Kumar","lastName":"Bishnoi","suffix":""},{"id":631571142,"identity":"a9c29d93-0859-49e6-a0d4-f4ee4a51e3a6","order_by":1,"name":"Sreenanda S Anand","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Dairy Research 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