Estimating COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness: Analysis of the 2020 Danish mink lockdown

Estimating COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness: Analysis of the 2020 Danish mink lockdown | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Estimating COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness: Analysis of the 2020 Danish mink lockdown Florian Ege This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4135968/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 12 Aug, 2024 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In late 2020 Denmark became the focus of the global efforts against the Covid-19 pandemic when reports of a mutated SARS-CoV-2 virus variant in the countries population of 17 million farmed mink appeared. Spillover infections between mink and humans were feared to threaten the efficacy of upcoming vaccines. In this study the ensuing short-lived yet stringent lockdowns imposed in 7 of the countries 98 municipalities are analysed for their effectiveness to reduce SARS-CoV-2 infections. Synthetic counterfactuals are created for each of these municipalities using a weighted average combination of the the 91 municipalities not targeted by the stringent measures. This allows for a clear overview regarding the development of test-positivity rates, citizen mobility behaviours and lastly daily infection numbers in response to the restrictions. The findings show that these targeted, short-term lockdowns significantly curtailed further infections, demonstrating a marked decrease, first in citizens mobility and then in daily cases when compared to their synthetic counterfactuals. Overall, the estimates indicate average reductions to infection numbers to be around 31%. This study underscores the potential of strict, yet severe lockdowns in breaking ongoing infection dynamics, by utilising a rare quasi-experimental design case that avoids endogeneity through treatment selection. Health sciences/Diseases/Infectious diseases Health sciences/Medical research/Epidemiology Health sciences/Medical research/Outcomes research Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformation1Nationalrestrictions.pdf SupplementaryInformation2Minkmunicipalityrestrictions.pdf SupplementaryInformation3ReproductionFile.r Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 12 Aug, 2024 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 06 Jun, 2024 Reviews received at journal 03 Jun, 2024 Reviews received at journal 24 Apr, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Apr, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 09 Apr, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 09 Apr, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 02 Apr, 2024 Editor invited by journal 02 Apr, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 02 Apr, 2024 First submitted to journal 20 Mar, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4135968","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":281737724,"identity":"c9c0f2e1-c9e1-411d-8cd6-5773c1aaa96e","order_by":0,"name":"Florian Ege","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAv0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBAC9gYg8QHCNmBgYEsgrIXnAAMD4wyStTDzkKaFvf3iY5s/dtEM/Ie3STCUpRGhhedMsXFuW3Jug0RamQTDuRzCWuwlctKkcxuYgVp4zCQY2yqIsEX+Tfpviz/1uQ38Z4jVIsF+jJmB7XBuA0MOSAsRDuPhyWGW7G07ntsmkVZskXCOGO+zH3/44cef6tx+/sMbb3woSyasBajJAEyxgYgEYjQAk8wD4tSNglEwCkbByAUAuTY0P8sHMx0AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"University of Southern Denmark","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Florian","middleName":"","lastName":"Ege","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-03-20 09:36:45","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4135968/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4135968/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-68929-z","type":"published","date":"2024-08-12T15:57:42+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":63071342,"identity":"c48e0d88-9ed5-4b4d-b496-6d08ed115c57","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-22 20:06:36","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1198596,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"yfszrkqnvszrzrgkrcghfmbzngdmhgpw.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4135968/v1_covered_31545dfb-2926-47a9-b33b-559d2a33307f.pdf"},{"id":53142219,"identity":"2f8f862c-f762-4556-a4e6-b2fd8a9bb692","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-03-21 06:19:18","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":85585,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryInformation1Nationalrestrictions.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4135968/v1/f88ee30232da3ef9d2e0a0ee.pdf"},{"id":53142220,"identity":"0d77af44-0ded-45f5-9814-a412370607b3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-03-21 06:19:18","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":489331,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryInformation2Minkmunicipalityrestrictions.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4135968/v1/f16de83fdd9a7645d177be2d.pdf"},{"id":53142218,"identity":"63ebee3a-6dc4-45fa-989e-5a94ea282f62","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-03-21 06:19:18","extension":"r","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":84077,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryInformation3ReproductionFile.r","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4135968/v1/f5a686c2f6107643a85d8e9e.r"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Estimating COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness: Analysis of the 2020 Danish mink lockdown","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4135968/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4135968/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"In late 2020 Denmark became the focus of the global efforts against the Covid-19 pandemic when reports of a mutated SARS-CoV-2 virus variant in the countries population of 17 million farmed mink appeared. Spillover infections between mink and humans were feared to threaten the efficacy of upcoming vaccines. In this study the ensuing short-lived yet stringent lockdowns imposed in 7 of the countries 98 municipalities are analysed for their effectiveness to reduce SARS-CoV-2 infections. Synthetic counterfactuals are created for each of these municipalities using a weighted average combination of the the 91 municipalities not targeted by the stringent measures. This allows for a clear overview regarding the development of test-positivity rates, citizen mobility behaviours and lastly daily infection numbers in response to the restrictions. The findings show that these targeted, short-term lockdowns significantly curtailed further infections, demonstrating a marked decrease, first in citizens mobility and then in daily cases when compared to their synthetic counterfactuals. Overall, the estimates indicate average reductions to infection numbers to be around 31\\%. This study underscores the potential of strict, yet severe lockdowns in breaking ongoing infection dynamics, by utilising a rare quasi-experimental design case that avoids endogeneity through treatment selection.","manuscriptTitle":"Estimating COVID-19 lockdown effectiveness: Analysis of the 2020 Danish mink lockdown","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-03-21 06:19:13","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4135968/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2024-06-06T04:31:31+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-06-03T07:38:16+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-04-24T15:02:24+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"00905528-d3f2-46f1-b1ac-656b55438e7f","date":"2024-04-11T13:09:35+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"a582864c-4da2-4555-9826-aea54b0429ea","date":"2024-04-09T13:45:11+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2024-04-09T13:22:35+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2024-04-02T12:35:03+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2024-04-02T08:58:11+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2024-04-02T05:37:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientific Reports","date":"2024-03-20T09:35:22+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"87144016-ba8f-4714-aa84-e2cf8e70819c","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 21st, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":29665757,"name":"Health sciences/Diseases/Infectious diseases"},{"id":29665758,"name":"Health sciences/Medical research/Epidemiology"},{"id":29665759,"name":"Health sciences/Medical research/Outcomes research"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-08-22T19:35:29+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-4135968","link":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-68929-z","journal":{"identity":"scientific-reports","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Scientific Reports"},"publishedOn":"2024-08-12 15:57:42","publishedOnDateReadable":"August 12th, 2024"},"versionCreatedAt":"2024-03-21 06:19:13","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1038/s41598-024-68929-z","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-68929-z","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4135968","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4135968","identity":"rs-4135968","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}