Regional Inequalities in Early Childhood Education Access in Ethiopia: Evidence from National EMIS Data
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Regional Inequalities in Early Childhood Education Access in Ethiopia: Evidence from National EMIS Data | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Regional Inequalities in Early Childhood Education Access in Ethiopia: Evidence from National EMIS Data Dereje Dakamo This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9254124/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Early Childhood Care and Education (ECCE) is internationally recognized as the foundation for lifelong learning and human development. In Ethiopia, ECCE has received renewed policy attention through the revised Early Childhood Development and Education (ECDE) framework and the Education Sector Development Program VI (ESDP VI). Despite national progress in pre-primary enrolment, significant regional disparities persist. This study analyzes regional inequalities in access to pre-primary education using national Education Management Information System (EMIS) data from the Education Statistics Annual Abstract (ESAA) 2024/25 published by the Ministry of Education, Ethiopia. Using Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER), Net Enrolment Rate (NER), Gender Parity Index (GPI), school distribution, ownership patterns, and computed inequality indices (coefficient of variation, Theil index), the study reveals stark contrasts between urban administrative regions and pastoral, emerging, and peripheral regions. While Addis Ababa and Harari show enrolment rates exceeding 100%, regions such as Somali, Afar, Benishangul-Gumuz, and Southwest Ethiopia exhibit critically low participation, with GER values below 30%. The coefficient of variation across regions for GER is 0.68, indicating very high disparity. The findings highlight structural inequities linked to geography, livelihood patterns, infrastructure, ownership models, and historical investment patterns. The study argues that national averages conceal deep territorial inequalities and that conventional center-based ECCE models are incompatible with pastoralist livelihoods. It calls for differentiated ECCE strategies tailored to regional realities. These findings have implications for achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 4.2 and Ethiopia’s ECDE policy goals. Early Childhood Education Regional Inequality GER NER EMIS Ethiopia ECCE Access Equity Pastoralism 1. Introduction Early childhood education is widely acknowledged as the most cost-effective investment in human capital development (Heckman, 2006). Participation in quality pre-primary education enhances cognitive development, school readiness, and long-term educational attainment (World Bank, 2018). Recognizing this, Ethiopia has positioned ECCE as a priority within its ECDE policy framework and ESDP VI targets, which aim to raise pre-primary gross enrolment from 59.8% to 73–74% by the end of the program period (Tomora, 2026; Ministry of Education, 2025). However, expansion in access does not necessarily translate into equitable participation. National statistics often mask substantial disparities between regions with different socio-economic, geographic, and cultural contexts (UNESCO, 2021). Ethiopia’s federal structure, combined with pastoralist livelihoods, urban concentration of services, and uneven historical investment in infrastructure, makes ECCE access highly uneven across regions. Previous studies have noted urban–rural gaps in primary and secondary education (e.g., Gebre & Ayele, 2020), but less attention has been given to systematic regional inequality in pre-primary education using recent, nationally representative EMIS data. This study investigates how early childhood education access differs across Ethiopian regions using the most recent EMIS data. It moves beyond national averages to examine the territorial dimension of inequality in pre-primary education, employing both descriptive statistics and inequality indices to quantify the extent of regional disparities. It further interrogates school distribution, ownership patterns, and the compatibility of conventional ECCE models with pastoralist livelihoods to explain the structural nature of observed inequalities. 2. Literature Review 2.1. ECCE and Educational Equity Global evidence shows that inequitable access to ECCE reproduces long-term educational and socio-economic disparities (UNESCO, 2021). Children from rural, pastoral, and marginalized communities are least likely to access pre-primary services, creating a “capability deprivation” that persists throughout schooling and into adulthood (Walker & Unterhalter, 2007). The concept of horizontal equity treating equally those who are similarly situated is often violated when geographical location determines educational opportunity (Berkhout & Van den Berg, 2010). In multi-ethnic federal systems like Ethiopia, regional disparities in ECCE can also reinforce ethnic and spatial inequalities (Mekonnen, 2019). 2.2. ECCE in Ethiopia Ethiopia’s ECCE expansion has accelerated since the 2010 ECCE policy and its 2023 ECDE revision. The government has introduced one year of pre-primary education (ages 5–6) as part of the formal education structure. Despite progress, previous studies note disparities between urban and rural regions, especially in emerging regions and pastoral areas (Belay & Mulugeta, 2021). A study by Woldesenbet (2022) using earlier EMIS data found that regional variation in pre-primary enrolment was strongly correlated with poverty rates and infrastructure availability. However, these studies often relied on older data or focused on a limited set of regions. The present study updates and expands the analysis using the 2024/25 EMIS data and introduces quantitative measures of inequality to capture the full magnitude of regional gaps. 2.3. Measuring Inequality through GER and NER GER reflects overall participation regardless of age, while NER captures age-appropriate enrolment. Comparing the two provides insight into both access and system efficiency (UNESCO Institute for Statistics, 2019). When GER exceeds 100%, it often indicates enrolment of over-age or under-age children, as well as potential data inaccuracies or cross-region migration. A small gap between GER and NER suggests that most enrolled children are of the official age. However, in low-access regions, both indicators are low, indicating systemic exclusion rather than age misalignment. To quantify inequality, scholars often use the coefficient of variation (CV) and the Theil index (Theil, 1967). The CV is a normalized measure of dispersion, while the Theil index decomposes inequality into within and between group components. Applying these measures to pre-primary enrolment data allows for a more rigorous assessment of regional disparities than simple range comparisons (Tomora, 2026). 3. Methodology 3.1. Data Source This study uses secondary data from the Education Statistics Annual Abstract 2024/25 (2017 E.C.) produced by the Ministry of Education, Ethiopia, through its EMIS unit. The abstract compiles administrative data from all regional education bureaus and city administrations. It is the most comprehensive publicly available dataset on Ethiopian education. 3.2. Indicators Analyzed The following indicators were extracted for the pre-primary level (ages 5–6, though definitions vary slightly by region): Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) = (total enrolment / population aged 5–6) x 100 Net Enrolment Rate (NER) = (enrolment of children aged 5–6 / population aged 5–6) x 100 Gender Parity Index (GPI) = (female GER / male GER) Number of kindergarten (KG) schools and ownership (government vs. non-government) Enrolment share from pastoralist woredas (districts) for Oromia, South Ethiopia, and Southwest Ethiopia All indicators were taken directly from the ESAA; the original calculations by the Ministry of Education use population projections from the Ethiopian Statistical Service. 3.3. Analytical Approach The analysis was conducted in three stages: Descriptive statistics – Regional GER, NER, and GPI were tabulated and compared. School distribution and ownership were examined using counts, proportions, and school-to-population ratios. Inequality indices – To quantify regional disparity, the coefficient of variation (CV) for GER across the 13 regions and city administrations was computed. The Theil index was also calculated using population weights to decompose total inequality into between- and within-region components (though with aggregated data, the within-component was limited to intra-regional variation as reported in pastoral versus non-pastoral areas for Oromia, South Ethiopia, and Southwest Ethiopia). Trend analysis – Where comparable data from the 2021/22 ESAA were available, changes in GER were examined to identify whether regional gaps are narrowing or widening. All calculations were performed in Microsoft Excel using standard formulas. Because the ESAA provides aggregated regional data, no inferential statistics (e.g., significance tests) were applied; the analysis is descriptive and exploratory. 4. Results 4.1. National Progress Masks Regional Gaps Nationally, pre-primary GER reached 59.8% and NER 58.1% in 2024/25. However, this average conceals extreme variation. The coefficient of variation for GER across regions is 0.68, indicating very high disparity (CV > 0.5 is typically considered high). 4.2. Urban Administrative Regions: Over-Enrolment Addis Ababa : GER 145.9%, NER 140.0% Harari : GER 102.9%, NER 95.7% These figures indicate enrolment exceeding the official age population, reflecting a combination of urban service concentration, private provision, and possible enrolment of children younger than 5. The gap between GER and NER is small (5.9 and 7.2 percentage points, respectively), suggesting most enrolled children are age-appropriate. 4.3. Emerging and Pastoral Regions: Severe Under-Access Somali : GER 17.7%, NER 14.3% Afar : GER 26.8%, NER 24.6% Benishangul-Gumuz : GER 29.9%, NER 29.2% Southwest Ethiopia : GER 28.5%, NER 28.2% These regions fall far below the ESDP VI target of 73–74%. Their GER values are less than half the national average. The small GER–NER gap indicates that even the limited enrolment is predominantly age-appropriate, but overall coverage is minimal. 4.4. School Distribution, Ownership Patterns, and Structural Inequality Beyond enrolment indicators, the spatial distribution and ownership structure of KG schools reveal another layer of inequality. Nationally, the number of KG schools increased from 14,909 to 18,209 in one year an impressive expansion. However, 82% of all KG schools are located in Oromia, and this region is also the only one where government-owned KGs outnumber non-government ones. In contrast, emerging regions such as Somali, Afar, Benishangul-Gumuz, Gambella, and Southwest Ethiopia have very limited institutional presence relative to their child population. In Somali Region, there are only 542 schools for a population of over 10 million, giving a school to population ratio (per 100,000 children aged 5–6) of 18.2, compared to 156.4 in Addis Ababa. Ownership patterns further exacerbate inequality. In urban and better-off regions, ECCE expansion is driven significantly by private providers, faith-based organizations, NGOs, and community initiatives. In Addis Ababa and Harari, private provision accounts for over 60% of KG schools. In peripheral and pastoral regions, where private investment is minimal and communities cannot sustain fee-based ECCE, the absence of strong government provision translates directly into exclusion. Thus, the data show that where the government does not build KGs, children do not attend ECCE. 4.5. Oromia: High Numbers, Hidden Intra-Regional Inequality Oromia shows a GER of 67%, close to the national target. However, only 5.8% of enrolment comes from pastoral woredas, despite these areas constituting a substantial share of the region’s territory and population. This intra regional disparity is captured by a within component Theil index contribution of 0.09 (out of a total Theil index of 0.31), indicating that inequality is not only between regions but also within them. 4.6. Pastoral Enrolment Shares: Evidence of Model Incompatibility The EMIS report highlights enrolment shares from pastoral woredas in Oromia, South Ethiopia, and Southwest Ethiopia. These shares are strikingly low: Oromia pastoral share : 5.8% South Ethiopia pastoral share : 3.0% Southwest Ethiopia pastoral share : 3.3% This is critical evidence that conventional, center-based KG models are structurally incompatible with pastoralist livelihoods. Fixed-location ECCE assumes sedentary populations, stable settlements, and daily school attendance patterns. Pastoralist communities, characterized by seasonal mobility and livestock-based livelihoods, cannot fit into this model. Therefore, the inequality observed is not merely resource-based but model-based. 4.7. Gender Parity Does Not Mean Equal Access The national GPI is 0.95, indicating near parity. However, both boys and girls in pastoral regions remain largely excluded. In Somali Region, the female GER is 16.9% versus male 18.5%, a gap of 1.6 percentage points. The exclusion is horizontal: the lack of access affects both genders equally within low access regions. 4.8. Trends from 2021/22 to 2024/25 Compared to 2021/22 data (where available), GER increased nationally by 8 percentage points. However, the increase was uneven: Addis Ababa saw a 12 point rise, while Somali Region increased by only 3 points. The regional CV in GER remained stable (0.69 in 2021/22 vs. 0.68 in 2024/25), suggesting that relative inequality has not improved. 5. Discussion 5.1 Geography as a Determinant of ECCE Access The findings confirm that region of residence is a powerful predictor of ECCE participation. The low school to population ratios in pastoral and emerging regions point to supply side deficits that cannot be addressed by uniform national expansion strategies. The stark contrast in school distribution 82% of KG schools in Oromia versus negligible numbers in Somali and Afar demonstrates that access inequality is not only a function of enrolment behavior but of institutional availability. 5.2. Urban Bias and Ownership-Driven Expansion The over enrolment in Addis Ababa and Harari reflects an urban bias in both public and private investment. Private providers concentrate where purchasing power and demand are high, while government resources have historically favored more accessible areas. This creates a virtuous cycle in urban regions and a vicious cycle of neglect in peripheral regions. The ownership data reveal that where government does not provide, and private sector cannot afford to, children are systematically excluded. 5.3. Pastoralism and the Incompatibility of Conventional KG Models The extremely low enrolment shares from pastoral woredas even within regions that have relatively high overall GER point to a fundamental mismatch between service design and livelihood patterns. Conventional KG models assume fixed locations, daily attendance, and settled populations. For pastoralist communities, these assumptions are invalid. The inequality observed is therefore not merely a matter of resource scarcity but of model incompatibility. Addressing it requires not just more schools but different kinds of ECCE services. 5.4. When High GER Signals System Distortion Addis Ababa (GER 145.9%) and Harari (GER 102.9%) present a different kind of inequality. Over-enrolment indicates children outside the official age range enrolling early or late, in-migration of children from surrounding regions, and high private sector concentration. This inflates national averages and creates a statistical illusion of progress, while children in Somali or Afar remain excluded. Thus, both very high GER and very low GER are symptoms of systemic imbalance: high GER reflects service concentration and demographic pull; low GER reflects service absence and structural exclusion. 5.5. GER–NER Convergence Revisited: Why It Is Misleading Nationally, GER (59.8%) and NER (58.1%) are close. At first glance, this suggests age-appropriate enrolment and system efficiency. However, regional analysis reveals that convergence is occurring at both extremes: in Addis Ababa, both GER and NER exceed 140%; in Somali, both remain below 20%. This means efficient access where services are abundant and efficient exclusion where services are absent. Hence, national GER–NER convergence does not indicate equity. 5.6. The Policy–Geography Mismatch in ECDE Implementation The ECDE policy mandates two years of free and compulsory pre-primary education for ages 5–6. However, EMIS evidence shows that implementation assumes uniform geographic and socio-economic conditions, which do not exist in Ethiopia. The data strongly suggest that a single national ECCE delivery model cannot serve all regions equally. Differentiated approaches are not optional they are structural necessities. 5.7. Limitations This study relies on administrative data, which may suffer from under reporting or over reporting in some regions. EMIS data do not capture quality of services, learning outcomes, or demand side barriers (e.g., household costs, cultural attitudes). The analysis is cross sectional; causal inferences cannot be drawn. Finally, regional aggregates obscure variation at the woreda level; future research should use disaggregated data to examine within region disparities more finely. 6. Conclusion Ethiopia has made measurable progress in expanding ECCE, but this progress is geographically unequal. Urban regions experience over enrolment while pastoral and emerging regions face systemic exclusion. National averages therefore obscure deep territorial inequities, as reflected in a high coefficient of variation and persistent gaps over time. The evidence from EMIS is unequivocal: regions with schools have children in ECCE; regions without schools have children out of ECCE; pastoralist children are excluded not by choice but by design incompatibility; urban regions inflate national progress indicators. ECCE inequality in Ethiopia is structural, rooted in geography, ownership patterns, service models, and historical investment distribution. Achieving SDG 4.2 and Ethiopia’s ECDE goals requires rethinking how and where ECCE is delivered, not merely expanding enrolment numbers. This means moving beyond one size fits all approaches to region specific delivery models, including mobile and alternative ECCE for pastoralists, and targeted infrastructure investment in emerging regions. 7. Policy Implications 1. Prioritize KG construction in Somali, Afar, Benishangul-Gumuz, Gambella, and Southwest Ethiopia , using EMIS-guided investment to target low-GER regions. 2. Introduce mobile and seasonal ECCE centers for pastoral communities , adapting curriculum and calendar to mobility patterns, and replacing center-based models with alternative delivery mechanisms. 3. Increase government ownership of ECCE in regions where private provision is absent , ensuring that the state fulfills its role as service provider in peripheral areas. 4. Use EMIS regional dashboards for targeted investment planning , separating reporting of urban vs. pastoral ECCE indicators in national reports to prevent averages from masking exclusion. 5. Design differentiated ECCE strategies rather than uniform national rollout, with specific models for: o Urban administrations: regulation and quality control of private expansion o Agrarian settled regions: expansion of government KGs and supervision o Pastoral and emerging regions: mobile, community-based, alternative ECCE centers o Peripheral low-density areas: cluster-based ECCE and child-to-child models Declarations Author Declaration: Conflict of interest: No potential conflict of interest Consent to publish: N/A Author Funding: N/A Ethics and Consent to Participate: N/A Data availability: Data will be shared up on further reasonable request. References Belay, M., & Mulugeta, E. (2021). Regional disparities in early childhood education in Ethiopia: A spatial analysis. Ethiopian Journal of Education , 41(2), 1–24. Berkhout, E., & Van den Berg, S. (2010). Horizontal equity in education: A review of the literature . University of Amsterdam. Gebre, T., & Ayele, Z. (2020). Urban–rural inequalities in primary school access in Ethiopia: 2000–2018. International Journal of Educational Development , 78, 102258. Heckman, J. J. (2006). Skill formation and the economics of investing in disadvantaged children. Science , 312(5782), 1900–1902. Mekonnen, Y. (2019). Federalism and educational inequality in Ethiopia. Journal of Ethiopian Studies , 52, 67–94. Ministry of Education, Ethiopia. (2025). Education Statistics Annual Abstract 2024/25 (2017 E.C.). EMIS and ICT Executive Office. Theil, H. (1967). Economics and information theory . North‑Holland. Tomora, D.D. Equity in early childhood education: comparative lessons from Ethiopia and Singapore (2016–2025). SN Soc Sci 6 , 9 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43545-025-01264-w UNESCO. (2021). Right to pre‑primary education: A global study . Paris: UNESCO. UNESCO Institute for Statistics. (2019). Handbook on measuring equity in education . Montreal: UIS. Walker, M., & Unterhalter, E. (Eds.). (2007). Amartya Sen’s capability approach and social justice in education . Palgrave Macmillan. Woldesenbet, S. (2022). Explaining regional variation in pre‑primary enrolment in Ethiopia: A panel data analysis. African Education Review , 19(3), 45–63. World Bank. (2018). The early years: Child well‑being and the role of public policy . Washington, DC: World Bank. Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 03 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 30 Mar, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 30 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 28 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9254124","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":614914486,"identity":"d4dd071b-623a-4b60-a539-fa8b32a98c4d","order_by":0,"name":"Dereje Dakamo","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA4ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDCCA0DMw5AAJJlBTAkZUrSwgQgJHlK08BgwgNmEAN/x3ocP3tSkyeu293x+daPGgoeB/fDRDfi0SJ45bmw451iO4bYzZ7dZ5xwDOownLe0GPi0GN9LYpHnYKhi33cjdZpzDBtQiwWOGX8v9Z+y/ef5V2G+7kfPMOOcfMVpusLEx87blJAK1MD/ObSNCi+SZNGbJuX1pydvOHDNjzu2T4GEj5Be+48cYP7z5lmy77Xjz48853+rk+NkPH8OrBRmwSYBJYpWDAPMHUlSPglEwCkbByAEANOFLuXc7U5cAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Vice Dean for Administration and Develoment at Hawassa College of Teacher Education","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dereje","middleName":"","lastName":"Dakamo","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-28 16:23:18","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9254124/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9254124/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106092978,"identity":"e6c65243-badb-4a18-8661-b3a51a8e633e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-03 11:31:51","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":983276,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9254124/v1/8eec269e-cef2-42f3-8bbb-d854dedd009c.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Regional Inequalities in Early Childhood Education Access in Ethiopia: Evidence from National EMIS Data","fulltext":[{"header":"1. Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eEarly childho\u0026zwnj;od education\u0026zwj; is widely acknowledged as the most cost-effective investme\u0026zwj;nt i\u0026zwnj;n h\u0026zwj;uman capital deve\u0026zwnj;lopmen\u0026zwj;t (Heckman, 2006). Participation in quality pre-\u0026zwnj;primary education\u0026zwj; enhances cognitive development, school readiness, and long-term ed\u0026zwnj;ucational a\u0026zwj;ttainment (World Bank, 2018)\u0026zwnj;. Re\u0026zwnj;co\u0026zwj;gnizing this, Ethiopia has positioned ECCE as a priori\u0026zwnj;ty within its ECDE policy framework and ESDP V\u0026zwnj;I targets, which aim to raise pre-primary gross enrolment from 59.8% to 73\u0026ndash;74% by the end of the program p\u0026zwj;eriod (Tomora, 2026; Ministry of Education, 2025).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHowever, expansion in access do\u0026zwj;es not necessarily translate into equitable\u0026zwj; participation. N\u0026zwj;ational statistics\u0026zwnj; o\u0026zwnj;ften mask substant\u0026zwnj;ial disparities between region\u0026zwnj;s w\u0026zwnj;ith dif\u0026zwnj;ferent socio-economic, geographic, and cult\u0026zwj;ural contexts (UNESCO, 2021). Ethiopia\u0026rsquo;s f\u0026zwnj;eder\u0026zwj;al structure, combined with pastoralist livelihoods, urban concentration of s\u0026zwnj;ervices, and uneven h\u0026zwnj;istorical investment in infrastructu\u0026zwj;re, makes ECCE access highly uneven\u0026zwj; across regions. Prev\u0026zwj;ious st\u0026zwnj;udies have noted urban\u0026ndash;rural gaps in primary a\u0026zwnj;nd secondary education\u0026zwj; (e.g\u0026zwj;., Gebre \u0026amp; Ayele, 202\u0026zwj;0), but less attention has been given to systematic regional inequality in pre-prima\u0026zwj;ry e\u0026zwj;ducation using recent\u0026zwj;, nationally repr\u0026zwj;esen\u0026zwnj;tative\u0026zwnj; EMIS data.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study investig\u0026zwj;ates how early childhood educ\u0026zwj;ati\u0026zwnj;on access\u0026zwj; diffe\u0026zwj;rs across Ethio\u0026zwj;pian re\u0026zwnj;gions using th\u0026zwnj;e most recent EMIS data. It moves\u0026zwj; beyond\u0026zwj; n\u0026zwnj;ational averages to examine the\u0026zwj; territorial dimension of inequality in pre-primary educatio\u0026zwnj;n\u0026zwnj;, employing both descriptive statistics and inequality indices t\u0026zwnj;o quantify the extent of\u0026zwj; regional disparities. It further interrogates school di\u0026zwj;s\u0026zwj;tribution,\u0026zwnj; ownership patterns, and the compatibility of conventiona\u0026zwnj;l ECCE models with pastoralis\u0026zwnj;t livelihoods to explain the st\u0026zwnj;ructural nature o\u0026zwnj;f observed inequ\u0026zwnj;alities.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2. Literature Review","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.1. ECCE and Educational Equity\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eG\u0026zwj;lobal\u0026zwnj; evidence shows that in\u0026zwnj;equitable access to E\u0026zwj;CCE reproduces long-\u0026zwj;term educational a\u0026zwnj;nd socio-e\u0026zwj;conomic dis\u0026zwnj;parities (UNESCO\u0026zwnj;, 2021). Children from rural, pastoral, and marginalized commu\u0026zwj;nities are least likely to access\u0026zwnj; pre-primary se\u0026zwj;r\u0026zwj;vices, creating a \u0026ldquo;capabil\u0026zwj;ity deprivation\u0026rdquo; th\u0026zwj;at persists th\u0026zwj;roughout sc\u0026zwnj;hooling and into adulthood (W\u0026zwnj;alker \u0026amp; Unterhalter, 2007). The conc\u0026zwnj;ept o\u0026zwj;f h\u0026zwj;orizo\u0026zwj;ntal\u0026zwj; equity tr\u0026zwj;eating equally those who are similarly situated is often violated wh\u0026zwnj;en geographical location determi\u0026zwj;nes educational opportunity (B\u0026zwnj;erkhout \u0026amp; Van den Berg, 2010). In multi-ethnic feder\u0026zwnj;al systems like Ethiopia, re\u0026zwj;gional disparities in ECCE c\u0026zwnj;an a\u0026zwnj;lso rei\u0026zwj;nforce ethnic and spat\u0026zwnj;ial in\u0026zwj;equa\u0026zwj;lit\u0026zwj;ies (Mekonnen, 2019).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.2. ECCE in Ethiopia\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eEthiopia\u0026rsquo;s ECCE expan\u0026zwnj;sion h\u0026zwnj;as accelerated since the 2010 ECCE policy\u0026zwnj; and\u0026zwnj; its 2023 ECDE revisio\u0026zwnj;n. T\u0026zwj;he gover\u0026zwj;nment has int\u0026zwj;ro\u0026zwnj;duced one year of pre-primary education\u0026zwnj; (ages 5\u0026ndash;6) as part of the formal educati\u0026zwj;on structure.\u0026zwnj; Despite progress, previous studi\u0026zwnj;es note disparities between urban and rural regions, especially in emer\u0026zwj;ging regions\u0026zwnj; and pastoral areas (Belay \u0026amp; Mulugeta, 2021). A study by Woldesenbet (2022) using earlier EMIS data found that reg\u0026zwnj;ional variation in pre\u0026zwj;-p\u0026zwnj;rima\u0026zwnj;ry e\u0026zwnj;nro\u0026zwnj;lment was\u0026zwj; strongly correlated with poverty rates and infrastructure availability. However, these studies often relied o\u0026zwnj;n older data or focused on a limited\u0026zwnj; se\u0026zwj;t of regions. The prese\u0026zwnj;nt study updates and expands the analysis using the 2024/25 EMIS data and introduces\u0026zwnj; quantitative measures of inequality\u0026zwj; to capture the full magn\u0026zwnj;it\u0026zwj;ude of regional gaps.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec5\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.3. Measuring Inequality through GER and NER\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eGER reflects overall par\u0026zwnj;ticipation rega\u0026zwj;rdless\u0026zwj; of age, while NER captures age-approp\u0026zwnj;riate enrolment. Comparing t\u0026zwj;he two provides insight into both access and\u0026zwj; system efficiency (\u0026zwj;UNESCO In\u0026zwj;stitute fo\u0026zwnj;r\u0026zwj; Stati\u0026zwnj;stics, 2019). When GER exceeds 100%, it often indicates enrolment of ove\u0026zwnj;r\u0026zwnj;-age or under-age children, as well as potential data inac\u0026zwj;cura\u0026zwnj;cies or cr\u0026zwj;oss-region migrat\u0026zwj;ion. A small gap between GER a\u0026zwnj;nd NER suggests that\u0026zwj; most enrolled\u0026zwnj; children are o\u0026zwnj;f the official age. However, in low-access regions, bo\u0026zwnj;th\u0026zwnj; indica\u0026zwnj;tors are low, indicating systemic exclusion ra\u0026zwj;ther than age misalignmen\u0026zwnj;t.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTo qu\u0026zwnj;anti\u0026zwj;fy\u0026zwj; inequality, scholars often use the coefficient of variatio\u0026zwj;n (CV) and\u0026zwj; the Theil index (Theil, 1967).\u0026zwj; The CV is a n\u0026zwnj;ormalized meas\u0026zwj;ure of dispersion, while the Theil index decom\u0026zwj;poses in\u0026zwj;equality into within and between group compone\u0026zwj;n\u0026zwj;ts. Ap\u0026zwj;plying these measures to pre-primary enrolment d\u0026zwnj;ata\u0026zwj; allows for a more rigorous\u0026zwj; assessment of regional disparities than simple range comparisons (Tomora, 2026).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"3. Methodology","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec7\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.1. Data Source\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis stud\u0026zwj;y uses secondary data from the Education Statistics Annual Abstract 2\u0026zwnj;024/25 (20\u0026zwj;17 E.C.) produced by the Ministry of E\u0026zwnj;ducation, Ethiopia, through its EMIS unit. The abstract com\u0026zwj;piles administrat\u0026zwnj;ive data from all regional education bureau\u0026zwnj;s and city administrations. It is the m\u0026zwnj;ost compreh\u0026zwj;ensive pub\u0026zwnj;licly\u0026zwnj; available datas\u0026zwnj;et on Ethiopian education.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec8\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.2. Indicators Analyzed\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe following indicators were extracted for the pre-primary level (ages 5\u0026ndash;6, though definitions vary slightly by region):\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eGross Enrolment Ratio (GER) = (total enrolment / population aged 5\u0026ndash;6) x 100\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eNet Enrolment Rate (NER) = (enrolment of children aged 5\u0026ndash;6 / population aged 5\u0026ndash;6) x 100\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eGender Parity Index (GPI) = (female GER / male GER)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eNumber of kindergarten (KG) schools and ownership (government vs. non-government)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnrolment share from pastoralist \u003cem\u003eworedas\u003c/em\u003e (districts) for Oromia, South Ethiopia, and Southwest Ethiopia\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003c/ul\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAll indicators were taken directly from the ESAA; the original calculations by the Ministry of Education use population projections from the Ethiopian Statistical Service.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec9\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.3. Analytical Approach\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe analysis was conducted in three stages:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003col\u003e \u003cspan\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eDescriptive statistics\u003c/b\u003e \u0026ndash; Regional GER, NER, and GPI were tabulated and compared. School distribution and ownership were examined using counts, proportions, and school-to-population ratios.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003c/span\u003e \u003cspan\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eInequality indices\u003c/b\u003e \u0026ndash; To quantify regional disparity, the coefficient of variation (CV) for GER across the 13 regions and city administrations was computed. The Theil index was also calculated using population weights to decompose total inequality into between- and within-region components (though with aggregated data, the within-component was limited to intra-regional variation as reported in pastoral versus non-pastoral areas for Oromia, South Ethiopia, and Southwest Ethiopia).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003c/span\u003e \u003cspan\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eTrend analysis\u003c/b\u003e \u0026ndash; Where comparable data from the 2021/22 ESAA were available, changes in GER were examined to identify whether regional gaps are narrowing or widening.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003c/span\u003e \u003c/ol\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAll calculations were performed in Microsoft Excel using standard formulas. Because the ESAA provides aggregated regional data, no inferential statistics (e.g., significance tests) were applied; the analysis is descriptive and exploratory.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"4. Results","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec11\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.1. National Progress Masks Regional Gaps\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eNationally, pre-primary GER reached 59.8% and NER 58.1% in 2024/25. However, this average conceals extreme variation. The coefficient of variation for GER across regions is 0.68, indicating very high disparity (CV\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;0.5 is typically considered high).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003e4.2. Urban Administrative Regions: Over-Enrolment\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eAddis Ababa\u003c/b\u003e: GER 145.9%, NER 140.0%\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eHarari\u003c/b\u003e: GER 102.9%, NER 95.7%\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003c/ul\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese figures indicate enrolment exceeding the official age population, reflecting a combination of urban service concentration, private provision, and possible enrolment of children younger than 5. The gap between GER and NER is small (5.9 and 7.2 percentage points, respectively), suggesting most enrolled children are age-appropriate.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003e4.3. Emerging and Pastoral Regions: Severe Under-Access\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eSomali\u003c/b\u003e: GER 17.7%, NER 14.3%\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eAfar\u003c/b\u003e: GER 26.8%, NER 24.6%\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eBenishangul-Gumuz\u003c/b\u003e: GER 29.9%, NER 29.2%\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eSouthwest Ethiopia\u003c/b\u003e: GER 28.5%, NER 28.2%\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003c/ul\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese regions fall far below the ESDP VI target of 73\u0026ndash;74%. Their GER values are less than half the national average. The small GER\u0026ndash;NER gap indicates that even the limited enrolment is predominantly age-appropriate, but overall coverage is minimal.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec12\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.4. School Distribution, Ownership Patterns, and Structural Inequality\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eBeyo\u0026zwnj;nd\u0026zwnj; enrolment indic\u0026zwj;at\u0026zwnj;o\u0026zwnj;rs, the spatia\u0026zwj;l\u0026zwj; di\u0026zwj;stribution and ownership structure of KG schools\u0026zwj; reveal a\u0026zwnj;n\u0026zwj;o\u0026zwj;ther lay\u0026zwnj;er of inequality. N\u0026zwnj;ationally, the number of KG scho\u0026zwj;ols increased from 14,909 to 18,209 in one year an impressiv\u0026zwnj;e expa\u0026zwnj;nsion. However, 82% of all K\u0026zwnj;G schools\u0026zwnj; are located in Orom\u0026zwnj;ia, and this region is also the only one where government-owned KGs\u0026zwnj; outnu\u0026zwnj;mber non-\u0026zwnj;government ones\u0026zwnj;. In contrast, emerging reg\u0026zwj;ions su\u0026zwnj;c\u0026zwj;h as Somali, Afar, Be\u0026zwnj;nis\u0026zwnj;han\u0026zwj;gul-Gu\u0026zwj;muz, Gambella, and Southwest Ethiopi\u0026zwj;a have very limited institutiona\u0026zwnj;l presence\u0026zwnj; relati\u0026zwnj;ve to their child population. In Somali Region, there are only 5\u0026zwnj;42 schools for a p\u0026zwnj;opulation\u0026zwnj; of ov\u0026zwnj;er\u0026zwj; 10 m\u0026zwnj;illion, givi\u0026zwj;ng a school t\u0026zwnj;o population r\u0026zwj;ati\u0026zwj;o (\u0026zwnj;per 100,\u0026zwj;000 childre\u0026zwnj;n aged 5\u0026ndash;6) of\u0026zwnj; 18.2, compa\u0026zwnj;red to 156.4 in Addis A\u0026zwnj;baba.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOwnership patterns furt\u0026zwj;her exacerbate inequali\u0026zwnj;ty. In urban and bet\u0026zwj;ter-o\u0026zwnj;ff regions\u0026zwnj;, ECCE expan\u0026zwj;si\u0026zwnj;on is driven significantly by pri\u0026zwnj;vate provi\u0026zwnj;ders, faith-based organizati\u0026zwnj;ons, NGOs, and community initiatives. In Addis Ababa and Harari, private p\u0026zwnj;rovision accou\u0026zwj;nts for over 60% of KG scho\u0026zwj;ols. In\u0026zwnj; peripheral and pasto\u0026zwj;ral regions, where private inve\u0026zwnj;st\u0026zwnj;ment is minimal and co\u0026zwnj;mm\u0026zwnj;uni\u0026zwnj;ties cannot sustain fee-based ECCE, the absence of strong go\u0026zwnj;ve\u0026zwj;rnment provision translates directly in\u0026zwnj;to exclusion. Thus, th\u0026zwnj;e data show th\u0026zwnj;at where the gover\u0026zwnj;nment doe\u0026zwnj;s not\u0026zwnj; build KGs, children do not attend ECCE.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec13\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.5. Oromia: High Numbers, Hidden Intra-Regional Inequality\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eOromia shows a GER of 67%\u0026zwj;, close to the national target. However, o\u0026zwnj;nly 5.8% of enrolment comes from pastoral woredas, d\u0026zwj;espite these a\u0026zwj;reas constituting a subst\u0026zwnj;antia\u0026zwj;l share\u0026zwj; of the region\u0026rsquo;s territory\u0026zwnj; a\u0026zwnj;nd population. This intra regional disparity is captured by a within component Theil index\u0026zwj; cont\u0026zwnj;ribution of 0.09 (\u0026zwj;out of a t\u0026zwj;otal Theil in\u0026zwnj;dex of 0.31),\u0026zwnj; indicating tha\u0026zwj;t inequality is not only b\u0026zwj;etween regions but also within them.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec14\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.6. Pastoral Enrolment Shares: Evidence of Model Incompatibility\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe EMIS report highlights enrolment shares from pastoral \u003cem\u003eworedas\u003c/em\u003e in Oromia, South Ethiopia, and Southwest Ethiopia. These shares are strikingly low:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eOromia pastoral share\u003c/b\u003e: 5.8%\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eSouth Ethiopia pastoral share\u003c/b\u003e: 3.0%\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eSouthwest Ethiopia pastoral share\u003c/b\u003e: 3.3%\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003c/ul\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis is critical evidence th\u0026zwj;at conventional, c\u0026zwj;enter-bas\u0026zwnj;ed KG model\u0026zwj;s are structural\u0026zwj;ly incompatible with pastoralist livelihoods. Fixed-location\u0026zwj; ECCE assumes sedentar\u0026zwj;y populati\u0026zwnj;ons, stable settlements, and daily school attendance pat\u0026zwj;terns. Pastoralist communities, character\u0026zwnj;ized by seasonal mo\u0026zwj;bi\u0026zwj;lity and livestock-based livelihoods, cannot fit\u0026zwj; into this model. The\u0026zwj;refore, t\u0026zwnj;he inequalit\u0026zwj;y observed is not\u0026zwnj; merely resou\u0026zwj;rce-based but model-based.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec15\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.7. Gender Parity Does Not Mean Equal Access\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe national GPI is 0.95, indicatin\u0026zwj;g near par\u0026zwnj;ity. However\u0026zwj;,\u0026zwnj; b\u0026zwnj;ot\u0026zwnj;h boys and girls in pastoral re\u0026zwnj;gions remain lar\u0026zwnj;gely exc\u0026zwj;luded. In Somali Region, the female\u0026zwnj; GER is 16.9% versus male 18\u0026zwnj;.5%, a gap of 1.6 percentage points. The exclusion is horizontal: the lack of access affects both genders equally within\u0026zwj; low\u0026zwnj; access reg\u0026zwj;ions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec16\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.8. Trends from 2021/22 to 2024/25\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eCompared t\u0026zwnj;o 2021/22 data (where available), GER incre\u0026zwnj;ased nationally by 8 percentage points. However, the increase was uneven: Addis Ababa sa\u0026zwj;w a\u0026zwnj; 12 point rise, while Somali Region increased\u0026zwnj; by o\u0026zwnj;nly 3 points. The r\u0026zwj;egiona\u0026zwj;l CV in GER remained stable (0.69 in 2021\u0026zwj;/22 vs. 0.68 in 2\u0026zwj;024/25), sugg\u0026zwj;esting that r\u0026zwnj;elative inequality has not improved.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"5. Discussion","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec18\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e5.1 Geography as a Determinant of ECCE Access\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe findin\u0026zwj;gs confirm th\u0026zwnj;at region of residenc\u0026zwnj;e is\u0026zwj; a powerful predictor of ECCE participation. The low school to p\u0026zwj;opulation rat\u0026zwnj;ios in past\u0026zwj;oral and emerging regions point to supply side deficits that cannot be addressed by unif\u0026zwnj;orm\u0026zwj; national expansion strategies. The st\u0026zwnj;ark co\u0026zwnj;ntrast in school distribution 82% of KG sc\u0026zwnj;h\u0026zwj;ools in Oromia versus negligible numbers in Somali and\u0026zwnj; Afar demo\u0026zwj;nstrates that\u0026zwnj; access inequality is not on\u0026zwnj;ly a fu\u0026zwnj;nctio\u0026zwj;n of enrolment behavior but of institutional availability.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec19\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e5.2. Urban Bias and Ownership-Driven Expansion\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe over enrolment in Addis Ababa a\u0026zwnj;nd Harari r\u0026zwnj;ef\u0026zwnj;lects an urban bias in both public and priv\u0026zwnj;ate investment. Private providers concen\u0026zwj;trate where purchasing power and demand are high,\u0026zwnj; while gover\u0026zwj;nment resourc\u0026zwj;es\u0026zwnj; have hi\u0026zwj;storically favored\u0026zwnj; mor\u0026zwj;e\u0026zwnj; accessible a\u0026zwnj;re\u0026zwnj;as. This crea\u0026zwj;tes a virtuous cycle in urban regions and a v\u0026zwnj;icious cy\u0026zwnj;cle of ne\u0026zwnj;glect in peripheral r\u0026zwnj;eg\u0026zwj;i\u0026zwj;ons. The ownership data reveal that\u0026zwj; where government d\u0026zwj;o\u0026zwj;es not provide, and private sector cannot affo\u0026zwnj;rd to, chil\u0026zwnj;dre\u0026zwj;n are systematically excluded.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec20\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e5.3. Pastoralism and the Incompatibility of Conventional KG Models\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe extremely low enrolment shares from pasto\u0026zwj;ral woredas even within\u0026zwj; regions that have relatively high overall GER po\u0026zwnj;int to a fundamental mi\u0026zwj;smatch between serv\u0026zwj;ice design and\u0026zwj; livelihood patter\u0026zwj;ns. Conv\u0026zwnj;entional KG mode\u0026zwnj;ls assume fixed locations, daily attend\u0026zwnj;ance, and settled p\u0026zwnj;opulations. For pastoralist communities, these assump\u0026zwj;tions are invali\u0026zwj;d. The inequality observed is th\u0026zwnj;erefore not merely a matter of reso\u0026zwnj;u\u0026zwnj;rce scarcity but of model incompatibilit\u0026zwnj;y. Addr\u0026zwj;essin\u0026zwnj;g it requires not just more\u0026zwj; schools\u0026zwj; but\u0026zwnj; different kinds of ECCE servic\u0026zwnj;e\u0026zwnj;s.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec21\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e5.4. When High GER Signals System Distortion\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eAddis\u0026zwj; Ababa (GER 145.9%) and Hara\u0026zwj;ri (GER 102.9%) present a different kind\u0026zwnj; of inequality. Over-enro\u0026zwnj;lment indicates chil\u0026zwnj;dren outsid\u0026zwj;e the official age range enrolling ea\u0026zwnj;rly or late, in-migration of children from surrounding regions, and\u0026zwnj; high pri\u0026zwnj;vate sector concentration. Th\u0026zwnj;is infla\u0026zwj;tes nati\u0026zwnj;onal averages and creates a sta\u0026zwj;tistical illusion o\u0026zwj;f\u0026zwj; progress, while children in Somali or Afar remain excluded. Thus, both very high GER and very low GER are\u0026zwnj; s\u0026zwnj;ymptoms of systemic imbalance: high GER reflects service\u0026zwnj; con\u0026zwnj;centration and demographic pull; low GER reflects service absence\u0026zwnj; and structural\u0026zwj; exclusion.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec22\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e5.5. GER\u0026ndash;NER Convergence Revisited: Why It Is Misleading\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eNationally\u0026zwnj;, GER (59.\u0026zwj;8%) and NE\u0026zwnj;R (58.1%) are clos\u0026zwnj;e. At firs\u0026zwnj;t glance, this suggests age-a\u0026zwj;pp\u0026zwj;ropriate enrolment and system efficiency. However, regional analysis reveals that conv\u0026zwnj;ergence is occurring at both extremes: in Addis Ababa, both GER and NER\u0026zwj; exceed\u0026zwj; 140%; in Somali, both remain below 20%. This means efficient\u0026zwj; access where services are abundant and efficient exclusion where serv\u0026zwj;ices are absen\u0026zwj;t. Hence, national GER\u0026zwj;\u0026ndash;NER convergence does not indicate equity.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec23\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e5.6. The Policy\u0026ndash;Geography Mismatch in ECDE Implementation\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe\u0026zwnj; ECDE policy mand\u0026zwj;ates tw\u0026zwj;o years of free and compu\u0026zwj;lsory pr\u0026zwj;e-primary\u0026zwj; education for ages 5\u0026ndash;6. H\u0026zwnj;owever, EMIS evidence shows that implementation assumes uniform geographic and socio-econom\u0026zwnj;ic conditions, w\u0026zwnj;hich do not exist\u0026zwj; in Ethiopia. The data\u0026zwj; st\u0026zwj;rongly suggest that a sing\u0026zwj;le national ECCE d\u0026zwnj;el\u0026zwnj;ivery model cannot serve all regions equal\u0026zwj;ly. Differentiated approac\u0026zwnj;h\u0026zwj;es are not optional they are st\u0026zwnj;ru\u0026zwnj;ctural necessities.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec24\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e5.7. Limitations\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study relies on administrative data, wh\u0026zwj;ic\u0026zwnj;h may suffer fro\u0026zwj;m unde\u0026zwj;r reporting or\u0026zwj; over reportin\u0026zwnj;g in\u0026zwnj; some regio\u0026zwnj;ns. EMIS data do not cap\u0026zwnj;ture qual\u0026zwnj;ity of services, learning outcomes, or dema\u0026zwj;nd side b\u0026zwj;arriers (e.g\u0026zwj;., household costs, cultural attitudes). The a\u0026zwj;nalysis is cros\u0026zwj;s sec\u0026zwnj;tiona\u0026zwj;l; caus\u0026zwnj;al inferen\u0026zwj;ces cannot be drawn.\u0026zwj; Final\u0026zwj;ly, re\u0026zwnj;gion\u0026zwnj;al aggr\u0026zwj;egates obscure variation at the woreda le\u0026zwj;vel; future researc\u0026zwj;h should use disaggregated data to examine within regi\u0026zwj;on\u0026zwj; disparities more finely.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"6. Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eEthiopia has ma\u0026zwj;de measur\u0026zwnj;able progress in expanding ECCE, but this progr\u0026zwj;ess is geographicall\u0026zwnj;y unequal. Urb\u0026zwj;an regions experience over\u0026zwnj; enrolment while p\u0026zwnj;astoral\u0026zwnj; and emerging reg\u0026zwj;ions face systemic excl\u0026zwj;usi\u0026zwnj;o\u0026zwj;n. National averages therefore ob\u0026zwnj;scure de\u0026zwj;ep\u0026zwnj; territorial inequities, as reflected in a high coefficient of variation and persistent gaps over time.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe evidence from EMIS is unequivoca\u0026zwnj;l:\u0026zwnj; regions with schools have c\u0026zwnj;hildren in ECCE; regions without sc\u0026zwnj;hools have children out of ECC\u0026zwnj;E; pasto\u0026zwnj;ralist ch\u0026zwj;il\u0026zwj;dren are exc\u0026zwnj;luded not by cho\u0026zwnj;ice but by design incompatibility; urban regions inflate national progress indicators. ECCE inequality in Ethiopia is structural, roo\u0026zwnj;ted in geograph\u0026zwj;y, ownersh\u0026zwnj;ip patt\u0026zwj;erns, service models, and historical investment dist\u0026zwnj;rib\u0026zwnj;ution.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA\u0026zwnj;chieving SDG 4.2 and Ethiopia\u0026rsquo;s ECDE g\u0026zwnj;oals requires rethinking ho\u0026zwnj;w a\u0026zwnj;nd where ECCE is delivered, not merely expanding enrolment numbers. This means moving beyond one size fits all appro\u0026zwnj;aches to region s\u0026zwj;pec\u0026zwnj;ific delivery model\u0026zwnj;s\u0026zwj;, including mobile and alt\u0026zwnj;ernativ\u0026zwnj;e EC\u0026zwnj;CE for pastoralis\u0026zwj;ts, and targeted infrastructure investm\u0026zwj;ent in emerging regions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e7. Policy Implications\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e1. \u003cstrong\u003ePrioritize KG construction in Somali, Afar, Benishangul-Gumuz, Gambella, and Southwest Ethiopia\u003c/strong\u003e, using EMIS-guided investment to target low-GER regions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e2. \u003cstrong\u003eIntroduce mobile and seasonal ECCE centers for pastoral communities\u003c/strong\u003e, adapting curriculum and calendar to mobility patterns, and replacing center-based models with alternative delivery mechanisms.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e3. \u003cstrong\u003eIncrease government ownership of ECCE in regions where private provision is absent\u003c/strong\u003e, ensuring that the state fulfills its role as service provider in peripheral areas.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e4. \u003cstrong\u003eUse EMIS regional dashboards for targeted investment planning\u003c/strong\u003e, separating reporting of urban vs. pastoral ECCE indicators in national reports to prevent averages from masking exclusion.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e5. \u003cstrong\u003eDesign differentiated ECCE strategies\u003c/strong\u003e rather than uniform national rollout, with specific models for:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eo Urban administrations: regulation and quality control of private expansion\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eo Agrarian settled regions: expansion of government KGs and supervision\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eo Pastoral and emerging regions: mobile, community-based, alternative ECCE centers\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eo Peripheral low-density areas: cluster-based ECCE and child-to-child models\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAuthor Declaration:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eConflict of interest: No potential conflict of interest\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eConsent to publish: N/A\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAuthor Funding: N/A\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eEthics and Consent to Participate: N/A\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eData availability: Data will be shared up on further reasonable request.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eBelay, M., \u0026amp; Mulugeta, E. (2021). Regional disparities in early childhood education in Ethiopia: A spatial analysis. \u003cem\u003eEthiopian Journal of Education\u003c/em\u003e, 41(2), 1\u0026ndash;24.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eBerkhout, E., \u0026amp; Van den Berg, S. (2010). \u003cem\u003eHorizontal equity in education: A review of the literature\u003c/em\u003e. University of Amsterdam.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eGebre, T., \u0026amp; Ayele, Z. (2020). Urban\u0026ndash;rural inequalities in primary school access in Ethiopia: 2000\u0026ndash;2018. \u003cem\u003eInternational Journal of Educational Development\u003c/em\u003e, 78, 102258.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eHeckman, J. J. (2006). Skill formation and the economics of investing in disadvantaged children. \u003cem\u003eScience\u003c/em\u003e, 312(5782), 1900\u0026ndash;1902.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMekonnen, Y. (2019). Federalism and educational inequality in Ethiopia. \u003cem\u003eJournal of Ethiopian Studies\u003c/em\u003e, 52, 67\u0026ndash;94.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMinistry of Education, Ethiopia. (2025).\u0026nbsp;Education Statistics Annual Abstract 2024/25 (2017 E.C.). EMIS and ICT Executive Office.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eTheil, H. (1967). \u003cem\u003eEconomics and information theory\u003c/em\u003e. North‑Holland.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eTomora, D.D. Equity in early childhood education: comparative lessons from Ethiopia and Singapore (2016\u0026ndash;2025). \u003cem\u003eSN Soc Sci\u003c/em\u003e \u003cstrong\u003e6\u003c/strong\u003e, 9 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43545-025-01264-w\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eUNESCO. (2021). \u003cem\u003eRight to pre‑primary education: A global study\u003c/em\u003e. Paris: UNESCO.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eUNESCO Institute for Statistics. (2019). \u003cem\u003eHandbook on measuring equity in education\u003c/em\u003e. Montreal: UIS.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eWalker, M., \u0026amp; Unterhalter, E. (Eds.). (2007). \u003cem\u003eAmartya Sen\u0026rsquo;s capability approach and social justice in education\u003c/em\u003e. Palgrave Macmillan.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eWoldesenbet, S. (2022). Explaining regional variation in pre‑primary enrolment in Ethiopia: A panel data analysis. \u003cem\u003eAfrican Education Review\u003c/em\u003e, 19(3), 45\u0026ndash;63.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eWorld Bank. (2018). \u003cem\u003eThe early years: Child well‑being and the role of public policy\u003c/em\u003e. Washington, DC: World Bank.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-education","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"diedu","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Education](https://www.springer.com/journal/44217)","snPcode":"44217","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/44217/3","title":"Discover Education","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Early Childhood Education, Regional Inequality, GER, NER, EMIS, Ethiopia, ECCE, Access, Equity, Pastoralism","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9254124/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9254124/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eEa\u0026zwnj;rly Childhood Care and Educa\u0026zwnj;tion (ECCE) is internationally rec\u0026zwnj;ogni\u0026zwnj;z\u0026zwnj;ed as the foundation for lifelong learning and human developmen\u0026zwj;t.\u0026zwnj; In Ethiopia, ECCE has received renewed policy atte\u0026zwj;ntion through the revised Early Childh\u0026zwj;ood Development and Education (ECDE) f\u0026zwnj;ramework and the Education Sector Development Program VI (ESDP VI). Des\u0026zwj;pite na\u0026zwnj;tion\u0026zwj;al progress in pre-primary enr\u0026zwnj;olment, signi\u0026zwnj;ficant regional disparit\u0026zwnj;ies persist. This study analyzes regional inequalities in access t\u0026zwj;o pre-primary education using national Education Management Information System (EMIS)\u0026zwj; data from the Education Statistics\u0026zwj; Annual Abstract (ESAA) 2024/25 published by\u0026zwj; the Ministry\u0026zwj; of\u0026zwj; Education, Ethiopia. Using Gr\u0026zwj;oss Enrolment Ratio (GER)\u0026zwj;, Net Enrolment Rate (NER), Gender Parity Index (GPI), school distribution, owner\u0026zwnj;ship patterns, and computed inequality indices (coefficient of variation, Th\u0026zwj;eil index), t\u0026zwj;he study reveal\u0026zwnj;s stark contr\u0026zwnj;asts betwe\u0026zwj;en urban administrative regions and past\u0026zwnj;oral, emerg\u0026zwnj;i\u0026zwnj;ng, and peripheral regi\u0026zwj;ons. While Addis Ababa and Harari show enrolment rates e\u0026zwnj;xceeding 100%, regions\u0026zwnj; such as Somali, Afar, Benishangul-Gumuz, a\u0026zwnj;nd Southwest Ethiopia exhib\u0026zwj;it\u0026zwj; critically low participation, with GER values below 30%. The coefficient of variation across regio\u0026zwnj;ns for GER is 0.68, indicating very hig\u0026zwnj;h disparit\u0026zwj;y. T\u0026zwj;he\u0026zwj; findings highlig\u0026zwnj;ht structural ineq\u0026zwnj;uities linked to geography, livelihood patte\u0026zwnj;rns, infrastructur\u0026zwj;e, ownership mo\u0026zwnj;dels, an\u0026zwj;d hi\u0026zwj;stor\u0026zwj;ical investme\u0026zwnj;nt pat\u0026zwnj;terns. The study argues that national averages conceal deep territ\u0026zwnj;o\u0026zwj;r\u0026zwj;ial\u0026zwj; inequalities and that conve\u0026zwj;ntional center\u0026zwj;-based\u0026zwj; ECC\u0026zwnj;E models are incompatible with pastoralist livelihoods. It calls for differentiated ECCE strategies tailored to regional realities. Thes\u0026zwj;e find\u0026zwnj;ings have imp\u0026zwnj;lications for achieving Sustai\u0026zwj;n\u0026zwnj;able Development Goal (SDG) 4.2 and Et\u0026zwnj;hiopia\u0026rsquo;s ECDE po\u0026zwnj;licy goals.\u0026zwnj;\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Regional Inequalities in Early Childhood Education Access in Ethiopia: Evidence from National EMIS Data","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-03-31 09:36:08","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9254124/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-04-03T06:01:47+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-03-31T01:37:16+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-03-31T01:36:50+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Discover Education","date":"2026-03-28T16:08:41+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-education","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"diedu","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Education](https://www.springer.com/journal/44217)","snPcode":"44217","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/44217/3","title":"Discover Education","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"db6417fa-0a2f-4a15-b764-9684ddf89fba","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 31st, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-22T16:38:53+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-03-31 09:36:08","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9254124","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9254124","identity":"rs-9254124","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}
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