Biodiversity side effects of carbon-focused reforestation under Paris-aligned transformation pathways

Biodiversity side effects of carbon-focused reforestation under Paris-aligned transformation pathways | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Biodiversity side effects of carbon-focused reforestation under Paris-aligned transformation pathways Patrick von Jeetze, Isabelle Weindl, Justin Johnson, Gabriel Abrahão, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8223917/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Large-scale afforestation/reforestation (AR) represents one of the most cost-effective approaches for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and is therefore a central component of Paris-aligned land and energy transformation pathways. Using a dynamic land- and energy-system model, we assess the emergent biodiversity side effects and energy-system adjustments under varying scales of AR in Paris-aligned pathways. We show that increasing scales of AR markedly affect both the extent and pattern of habitat loss. While stringent climate action that avoids further conversion of forest and non-forest ecosystems offers substantial biodiversity co-benefits by reducing habitat loss, these benefits are largely offset at high levels of carbon-focused AR (>150 Mha) due to disproportionate losses of open habitats. Notably, we also find almost no effect of AR on energy-system transformations until 2050 and only limited effects of CDR from AR on long-term emissions. Our findings underline that near-term emission cuts remain critical for achieving the Paris Agreement and emphasise the need to shift from a dominant focus on large-scale tree planting to broader ecosystem restoration. Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Biodiversity Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files subSI.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8223917","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":572020103,"identity":"5dc0c4e0-6ae8-4a3b-8dc3-571ab9dd6c0c","order_by":0,"name":"Patrick von Jeetze","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABAklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFCCA2BSjoGZDUmAh5AWIDKGajEgRgtEV2IDA7FaDA4ePvj4wx+b9O3sbAnMBRV/7PmOn05geFOBR8uBY8kGB3jScnc2sx1gnnHGIHHmmdwNjHPO4NYi2XDGTOKAxOHcDYfZ23/zthkkGBzI3cDM24ZPy/nvPw4Y/E83OMzeAFRpYG9w/i1Qyz/cWvgZzrAxHEg4kGBwGOgwoBbGDTdAtjTg03LMWOLMgWRDoF8SgH4xTpx54+2Gg3OO4dbCJnH44YeKP3by5vzHDIAhJmfPdz5344M3Nbi1MEgcgNDACGFghgkewKMB6LIGLFpGwSgYBaNgFCADAHzPWH+ny61iAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1197-4412","institution":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Patrick","middleName":"","lastName":"von Jeetze","suffix":""},{"id":572020104,"identity":"e34548a1-7ba7-4b00-ab3b-88c031b4002d","order_by":1,"name":"Isabelle Weindl","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7651-6930","institution":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Isabelle","middleName":"","lastName":"Weindl","suffix":""},{"id":572020105,"identity":"e87a2b87-a3f8-4bc4-a67d-4e3f118e8f79","order_by":2,"name":"Justin Johnson","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-1787","institution":"University of Minnesota","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Justin","middleName":"","lastName":"Johnson","suffix":""},{"id":572020106,"identity":"bd7ce77e-0b77-4cf1-ba8a-0ff96093a953","order_by":3,"name":"Gabriel Abrahão","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gabriel","middleName":"","lastName":"Abrahão","suffix":""},{"id":572020107,"identity":"3a224566-a0b2-419d-a904-aa101b0148d3","order_by":4,"name":"Leon Merfort","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1704-6892","institution":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) e. 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