Cumulative Positive Contributions of Propagating MJO To The Quick Low-Level Atmospheric Response During El Niño Developing Years

Abstract Based on Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) El Niño alert system, this study investigates the atmospheric and oceanic conditions during El Niño developing years between 1982 and 2016. It is found that there is a 2–5-month lag to establish steady low-level atmospheric (or the Southern Oscillation Index, SOI) response than the steady El Niño-pattern Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA), which is defined as the critical period in this research. According to the duration of this critical period, the quick and slow steady atmospheric response years can be identified among all El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) developing events. The quick establishments of the Sea Level Pressure Anomaly (SLPA) in the tropical atmosphere are proved to be closely related to the subseasonal Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) events. In the quick response years, the MJO events can even propagate to the eastern Pacific, which lead to cumulative negative Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and SLP anomalies there, and make a positive contribution to the quick atmospheric response at the end of critical period. However, the eastward-propagation of MJO events is mainly restricted in the tropical Western Pacific in the slow response years, causing slow steady atmospheric response with almost no contributions from MJO. Furthermore, observations and several simulations are used to understand this propagation differences of the MJO between quick and slow response years.