Mechanistic Insights into Climate-Driven Degradation of Offshore Mechanical Infrastructure and Implications for Energy System Resilience

Mechanistic Insights into Climate-Driven Degradation of Offshore Mechanical Infrastructure and Implications for Energy System Resilience | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Mechanistic Insights into Climate-Driven Degradation of Offshore Mechanical Infrastructure and Implications for Energy System Resilience Nsini Ignatius Udo This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9473188/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The world depends upon the use of offshore mechanical systems in the energy sector, as the world operates these systems in the global arena. However, of late, these offshore mechanical systems have remained vulnerable to non-stationary climate forces. Although it is clear how the failures of the entire process are measured in the case of offshore mechanical systems, it is not yet clear how the entire process of these failures, measured against the climate change resilience capacity of the offshore mechanical system, will happen. In the proposed research study, the climate and oceanographic change information available between the 1980s and 2023 will be used, combined with the theories regarding the loss of effectiveness of the offshore mechanical system because of corrosion and fatigue, in order to realistically identify the impact of climate change upon the effectiveness loss in the case of offshore mechanical systems. The result results of the proposed research study will qualitatively describe the impact of the total process of the failure of the individual factors, which will describe the loss of effectiveness of 5% to 10% because of the action of medium climate force and 25% because of the action of high climate force at the offshore mechanical system level. Energy Engineering Ocean Engineering Mechanical Engineering Offshore mechanical infrastructure climate-induced degradation corrosion–fatigue interaction reliability engineering energy security Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Introduction "Offshore mechanical infrastructure is also an essential part of the chain of energy infrastructure, and it helps to enable the exploration and production of hydrocarbons, the transport of the energy from the sea to shore via seabed cables, the development of offshore wind farms, and low-carbon technology in the current decade, such as the production of hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS) (International Energy Agency, 2022; Royal Society, 2020). An important point to note is that the integrity of the offshore mechanical infrastructure process itself, with pumps, compressors, and pipes, and in terms of the assembly and installation of subsea infrastructure, is directly dependent upon the security of the supply of energy and the integrity of the market (Helm, 2017; UK Government, 2022)." Statistically significant deviations from the traditional parameters of designs have appeared during the past few decades regarding the operational conditions of the offshore environment. These differences, including the warmed-up sea surface temperatures, changes to salinity, increased levels of wave loads, and enhanced levels of extreme weather occurrences, manifested trends towards the more advanced international offshore fields (IPCC, 2021; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2019). Contrary to the assumptions that consider them as separate, mutually independent load factors, these differences have affected the corrosion rate kinetics, promoted the initial range of fatigue crack initiation, and enhanced corrosion-fatigue damage mechanisms of the metallic structures deployed in the offshore fields (Melchers & Jeffrey, 2018; Sarkar et al., 2020). The mechanisms related to the impacts of the above differences have, instead, appeared to be significant and, particularly, fundamental within the currently operational vintage structures, which initially presented designs and optimizations based on static levels of natural loads and factors of safety (ISO, 2019; Sørensen, 2011). Out of the various degradation modes, it is found that degradation modes related to corrosion and fatigue phenomena were specifically accentuating and exacerbating unplanned failures related to mechanical-offshore systems, and specifically under high temperatures (Melchers, 2019; Kumar and Markeset, 2017). It is clearly evident from the results and opinions on various systems that small increases in levels of degradation within corrodents influence and reduce the measures of remaining life and MTBF, and accentuate levels of probabilities of consequences such as forced shutdowns (Rausand and Høyland, 2020; DNV, 2021). These fall under the general categories related to energy and influence measures such as levels of unavailability, increased levels of expenditures on maintenances, and increased levels on imports within the given quantities corresponding to periods of shutdown (IEA, 2023; Royal Society, 2020). Despite the presence of an overwhelming amount of knowledge and achievements in the region of corrosion and reliability issues within the offshore scenario, the existing studies have not yet addressed the related challenges together in a formulation that combines the effects of the multi-decade climatic data on probabilistic reliability and energy security issues (Turnbull et al., 2014; Obanijesu et al., 2022). The effects of the climate system in the non-stationary climatic variables of reliability in mechanical systems and energy security concerns have thus not yet received a quantitative response. The aforementioned gap will be removed in this research work by combining long-term climate and oceanographical parameters (since 1980 until 2023), corrosion and fatigue models, and reliability engineering analysis techniques followed by probability analysis. Monte Carlo analysis will be applied in this research work for simulating uncertainties and modeling extremely non-linear response rates because of dynamic and cumulative climatic changes (Miner, 1945; Paris, 2015). In this research work, a quantitative mechanistic model of climate-resilient offshore asset management will be developed, combining climate-related degradation parameters and RUL, MTBF, and availability parameters, following a theoretical model paradigm for interpreting improvements within the response of the engineering and operation community in a rapidly escalating level of climatic uncertainties (Royal Society, 2020; IEA, 2022). Materials and Methods 3.1 Study Design and Methodological Framework This research will combine and apply an interdisciplinary approach towards modeling and analysis of the degradation of offshore mechanical infrastructure due to the impact of climate change and, subsequently, the effects on the reliability and performance of energy security in a changed climate. This is done by combining the field of climate change studies with materials science. It involves three crucial aspects of the methodological approach, and all these aspects are inter-related. 3.1.1. The analysis of the data is focused on making an assessment that will outline multi-decadal trends of sea surface temperature (SST), change in salinity, wave loads, and extreme events associated with the influence of the mentioned climate-driven stressors that offshore mechanical structures are usually subject to, such as increased corrosion levels, fatigue forces, and material degradation on these structures. The date ranges considered were from the year 1980 up until the year 2023, which were obtained from reputable global data repositories, such as IPCC AR6, NOAA, and ERA5 Reanalysis Data set from ECMWF, amongst others, in order to ensure the efficiency, traceability, and reproducibility of data. 3.1.2. "Materials degradation assessment" relates to the description of corrosion, fatigue, and combined corrosion-fatigue failure mechanisms for the relevant offshore materials, including carbon steel, martensitic, and duplex stainless steel, nickel-based alloys, as well as protective coatings. Equations deduced from the failure mechanisms that included Arrhenius-type dependence of temperature, chloride-induced stress corrosion cracking, as well as Miner's rule for cumulating fatigue damage, could predict material degradation rates due to dynamic environmental loading conditions. Material degradation rates and failures in service for offshore structures in operation were then referred to for validation of the modeling prognoses. 3.1.3 Reliability-based engineering assessment links material deterioration to important key performance indicators MTBF and RUL by doing a quantitative assessment of reliability against changing climate factors. Reliability-based engineering assessment of the impact of material deterioration on energy security concerns of operational availability, unplanned downtime events and maintenance costs, and energy disruption risk due to material failures and material-related failures in the energy industry has been done by probabilistic and Monte-Carlo simulations of uncertain variables linked to environmental and material parameters against material deterioration models. The points settled between the client and some other party are what are usually framed. 3.2 Data Sources and Environmental Parameters Information was gathered from prominent repositories to make it relevant to the field of engineering. Major climatic and oceanographic factors that influence the three forms of degradation were taken into account Table 1 Climate and oceanographic datasets used in the study Parameter Data Source Time Coverage Engineering Relevance Sea surface temperature (SST) IPCC AR6, NOAA 1980–2023 Accelerates corrosion kinetics and material aging Seawater salinity World Ocean Database 1980–2023 Influences pitting and crevice corrosion Wave height & spectral loading ERA5 Reanalysis (ECMWF) 1990–2023 Drives fatigue damage accumulation Extreme weather frequency IPCC AR6 1980–2023 Increases overload and shock-induced failures Atmospheric CO₂ concentration NOAA ESRL 1980–2023 Contributes to ocean acidification and material degradation The data sets in Table 1 above represent the key factors for climate and oceanographic influences on the processes of corrosion, fatigue, and corrosion-fatigue damage for the mechanical systems utilized for off-shore purposes on the time scale associated with the entire life cycle of such assets. The data for the research has been obtained from international public access datasets (1980–2023), and it ensures traceability, robustness, and reproducibility, as the data The statistical analysis included trend analysis, analysis of variance, and uncertainty analysis, which made it possible to carry out modeling on past fluctuations on a longer-term cycle that is appropriate and significant within the context of an asset life cycle. 3.3 Offshore Mechanical Systems and Materials Considered 3.3.1 Mechanical Systems The critical offshore mechanical systems considered for the study have a high relevant rate, failure rate, and implications for energy security. The critical systems considered have the potential to create a cascading effect due to failure implications for energy security, cost, and safety in the sector (IEA, 2023; Helm, 2017). The critical offshore mechanical systems considered for the study include: Centrifugal and Positive Displacement Pumps It is an important component of fluid transportation systems found in oil, gas, and water operations related to cooling systems, firewater systems, and chemical injection lines. Pumping systems are prone to erosion, cavitation, corrosion, and fatigue, particularly while handling highly saline fluids or fluids that require controlled temperatures (Melchers & Jeffrey, 2018; Kermani & Morshed, 2003). Their failure causes problems of system shutdown, the environment, and high repair costs. Gas compressors and turbines : Critical in gas processing, injection, gas, as well as power plants. These processes require or portend faster rotation speeds, higher temperatures, or different conditions under pressurized environments, leading to failure through fatigue, failure through corrosion by stresses, or failure through thermomechanics. Their level of importance is most critical in ensuring reliability in offshore platforms (Sarkar et al., 2020; Obanijesu et al., 2022). Offshore Pipelining and Riser. Pipelines carry hydrocarbons, water, and chemicals from or between underwater wells/platforms and onshore facilities. The structure is under harsh marine dynamic forces, changes in internal pressures, and corrosive conditions of the surrounding water; hence they experience pit corrosion, crevice corrosion, and stress corrosion cracking of metals. In addition, pipeline failure can have severe repercussions of oil spilling and loss of functionality, particularly if energy is involved. Firewater and cooling water systems : Critical Safety and Operational Infrastructures serving as a risk mitigation platform to thermal control of the high heat process environment. Critical infrastructures failure due to biological fouling, corrosion, and material fatigue leakage can therefore create the development of risks in the platform and henceforth regulatory non-compliance. Subsea Mechanical Assemblies : riser clamp, riser connector, riser valve actuator, riser The pressure, salinity levels, and even low temperatures in subsea environments are moderately high; thus, such environments are further vulnerable to crevice corrosion, galvanic corrosion, and cyclic fatigue mechanisms. Repair costs in subsea environments are comparatively very high and hence the need for reliability-centered methodologies. These mechanical systems have been selected to cover a wide range of offshore facilities, from the rotating/static systems, fluid and gas handling systems, to safety-related systems, so that climate adaptive degradation models and reliability analysis may be generalized to a wide range of offshore facilities. 3.3.2 Materials These materials are selected because these are the ones most frequently encountered in offshore mechanical systems and are most likely to become degraded by climactic conditions, and are most vital to the dependability of offshore mechanical systems: Carbon steels API 5L grades - These steels are usually utilized in the erection of pipelines, structural support, and pressure vessels. These steels are prone to a uniform corrosion and pitting attacks due mainly to a high SST and salinity difference. Corrosion allowance designs, paints, and cathodic protection methods that were very effective, became unsuccessful under unstationary and climatic conditions. Martensitic stainless steel : These steels, which are being extensively used in rotary machinery, pumps, and valves, possess some resistance to corrosion with higher hardness and fatigue strength. However, high temperature, variation in salt concentration, and influence of chlorides in stress corrosion help positively to accelerate corrosion. Duplex Stainless Steels : It is commonly applied in the manufacture of high-strength structural devices and pipes, where pitting and stress-corrosion cracking are greater. However, the possibility of fatigue crack growth still exists, especially those under wave dynamic loading/temperature variations in aged infrastructure (Sarkar et al., 2020; Li et al., 2021). Nickel-based alloys : These are used in blades of turbines, underwater connectors, and points of chemical injection. Nickel alloys have good corrosion resistance qualities, but corrosion can occur to these alloys due to high saline concentration, biological fouling, and high temperatures, particularly in the offshore industry. Coatings protections et protections cathodiques : The effectiveness of these coatings has been viewed also concerning the ability to withstand simulative mechanical and environmental loads, high SST, salinity variations, wave cycle loads, and storm conditions. This coating performance reduction, cathodic efficiency, and mechanical failure can precipitate accelerated corrosion-fatigue interactions. Moreover, the selection criteria looked at economical and functional effects, focusing on which material, after degrading, posed the highest risk to system downtime, repair, and potential hazard to energy integrity and security. It is worth noting that such selection for the material is not solely based on the above criteria but may consider other factors depending on the project to be accomplished. The Fig. 1 above compares the effects of the increasing service temperature of the sea surface, water salinity variations, and cyclic loads on the vulnerability of various offshore materials with respect to corrosion, fatigue, and the effects of mutually combined processes of the first and second types, respectively. 3.4 Degradation Mechanism Identification Degradation mechanisms were mapped using mechanism-based assessment , linking environmental stressors to material response. Coupled degradation processes, particularly corrosion–fatigue interactions , were emphasized. Table 2 Climate drivers and associated degradation mechanisms Climate Stressor Mechanical Effect Dominant Degradation Mechanism Elevated SST Increased reaction kinetics Uniform and localised corrosion Salinity variability Electrochemical instability Pitting and crevice corrosion Increased wave loading Cyclic stress amplification High-cycle and low-cycle fatigue Extreme storms Transient overloads Crack initiation and propagation Ocean acidification Reduced passivity Accelerated metal dissolution The Table 2 above correlates the prevailing climate factors to their mechanical loads and respective degradation modes, thereby creating the basis for establishing linkages between climatic variability and routes of material degradation. The degradation modelling and analysis in the next sections will draw on these relations. Coupled degradation processes, particularly corrosion–fatigue interactions , were emphasized due to their significant effect on offshore rotating and pressure-containing equipment. 3.5 Degradation Rate and Reliability Assessment Corrosion rate Estimated using Arrhenius-type temperature dependency models adjusted for salinity and dissolved oxygen. Fatigue damage Assessed using Miner’s linear damage accumulation with climate-adjusted load spectra. Reliability metrics MTBF, RUL, and failure rate trends. RUL Calculation (plain text) : RUL = (Current MTBF ÷ Design MTBF) × Design Life (1) Uncertainty Quantification : Monte Carlo simulations to propagate variability in environmental parameters, material properties, and model assumptions Sensitivity analysis to identify dominant contributors to degradation Validation Field-reported degradation rates and literature (Melchers, 2019; Turnbull et al., 2014) were used for model validation. 3.6 Energy Security Impact Assessment Failure consequences were evaluated across operational availability, maintenance cost escalation, and supply disruption risk. Table 3 Offshore degradation impacts on energy security (Quantitative) Degradation Severity Mechanical Impact Energy Security Implication Quantitative Estimate Low Increased inspection demand Higher OPEX, manageable risk 1–3% reduction in availability; 2–5 days/year supply disruption; OPEX + 3–5% Moderate Reduced MTBF, unplanned shutdowns Supply intermittency 5–10% reduction in availability; 10–15 days/year disruption; 1–5% annual energy output loss; OPEX + 10–12% Severe Catastrophic failure risk Major production loss, import dependency Up to 25% reduction in availability; >30 days/year disruption; up to 15% energy output loss; OPEX + 15–20%; import dependency + 5–10% The Table 3 above show the quantitative results provide a summary of the effects of the mechanical degradation due to climate on the Operational Availability, Maintenance Costs, and Risk of Supply Disruption. These values have been obtained on the basis of Reliability Parameters such as MTBF & RUL, which have been carried out with the help of probabilistic degradation models. 3.7 Limitations and Robustness Despite the use of high-quality secondary datasets, site-specific variability, material heterogeneity, and model assumptions introduce uncertainties. Probabilistic approaches and digital twin-based validation are recommended for future studies. Results 4.1 Climate Trends and Offshore Degradation The SST levels have gained incrementally; therefore, with better stimulation, carbon steel and martensitic stainless steel corroded more rapidly. Salinity variation promotes pitting and crevice corrosion. The worsening of fatigue damage due to increased intensity and occurrence of wave events in piping, risers, and other rotor machinery. There could be large differences between legacy assumptions and actual exposure. These are liable to be more extreme in aging assets.. Easy to apply, especially on aging equipment. The Fig. 2 above presents long-term trends (1980–2023) of important climate factors impacting offshore mechanical deterioration: sea surface temperature, salinity variability, and extreme waves. Such long-term trends form the foundation for the deterioration rate and overall availability analysis conducted for old offshore equipment based on the environment described above. 4.2 Degradation Mechanisms Corrosion-fatigue interaction is the primary mode of failure. The thermal and chemical stresses accelerate the electrochemical kinetics, while cyclic loads caused by wave currents account for crack development. Protective coatings and cathodic protection lose much of their effectiveness when combined with exposure to harsh environmental and mechanical forces. Reductions of RUL and MTBF suggest nonlinear trends that cannot be expressed using classic formulas.. Figure 3 . Schematic representation of climate-induced degradation pathways in offshore mechanical systems, highlighting the interaction between corrosion and fatigue under non-stationary environmental conditions 4.3 Reliability and Energy Security Implications In turn, when it comes to the offshore environment, the damage caused to mechanical systems due to climate-related factors to energy security is non-linear and quantifiable: A 20–30% reduction in MTBF indicates a loss in operational availability of 5–10% and up to 10–15 days per year lost in supply, while damage above 50%, in terms of RUL, results in significant losses in availability to as high as 25% in certain cases, disruption times to over 30 days per year, with output losses above 15% in particular; such are the consequences of mutually interacting corrosion-fatigue damage in a time-varying environment, which are not presently accounted for through established models of maintenance. The projected rise in failure rates due to increased degradation added to the offshore reliability costs of about 10–15%, apart from systemic energy security challenges. While under medium to extreme degradation, the lower availability off-shore is linked to a 5–10% increase in energy import dependence, and this is pointing at climate-induced mechanical degradation as a grave factor impeding offshore reliability. Quantitative data: Quantitative analysis correlates the decrease in MTBF with the magnitude of possible potential energy gaps, confirming degradation in reliability as the root cause underlying vulnerability in the reliability of offshore energy provision. A decrease in mean time between failures due to increasing climate change factors ensures that the chances of forced outages will increase as the number of failures increases. The results also have implications that establish that it is about time conventional models of maintenance defined by historical patterns were abandoned, for adaptation of asset management practices that anticipate challenges provided by prospects of climatic uncertainty. Conclusion This work mechanistically and probabilistically links climate change to the degradation of mechanical systems in the offshore environment and energy system resilience. By integrating multi-decadal climate data with degradation modelling and reliability analysis, this work shows that conventional maintenance and design frameworks understate failure risk under evolving environmental conditions. This framework thus provides a solid foundation for climate-adaptive asset management and contributes to the development of resilient energy systems facing growing climatic uncertainty Declarations Ethical Statement This research did not involve human participants, human data, or animal subjects. As such, ethical approval and informed consent were not required for this study. Data Accessibility All data used in this study are derived from publicly accessible, internationally recognised repositories. No new primary data were generated. The datasets analysed include:Climate and oceanographic data from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), NOAA, the World Ocean Database, and ERA5 Reanalysis (ECMWF). Atmospheric CO₂ concentration data from NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories All datasets are accessible through the original data providers and are cited within the manuscript reference list. Derived data, tables, and analytical outputs supporting the findings of this study are fully contained within the article. No additional code or proprietary software was developed for this research. Competing Interests The author declare that they have no competing interests Funding Statement This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. Author Contributions Author contributed substantially to the conception and design of the study; acquisition, analysis, and interpretation of data; drafting and critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content; and final approval of the version to be published. Acknowledgments The author acknowledge the developers and custodians of the international climate, oceanographic, and offshore engineering databases utilised in this study, including the IPCC, NOAA, ECMWF, and the World Ocean Database, for making high-quality datasets publicly available. The author also acknowledge insights from prior offshore engineering practice and standards development that informed the interpretation of degradation mechanisms. References Azad AK, Hossain MS, Islam R. Climate resilience of offshore energy infrastructure. Energy Rep . 2020;6:261–271. doi:10.1016/j.egyr.2020.11.109. Bhattacharya S, Adhikari S. Experimental validation of offshore structure fatigue models. Ocean Eng . 2011;38:1463–1476. doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2011.06.004. DNV. DNV-RP-C203: Fatigue Design of Offshore Steel Structures . Oslo (NO): DNV; 2021. Ferreira JA, Branco CM. Fatigue behaviour of offshore structural components under variable amplitude loading. Int J Fatigue . 2016;82:470–479. doi:10.1016/j.ijfatigue.2015.09.013. Helm D. Burn Out: The Endgame for Fossil Fuels . New Haven (CT): Yale University Press; 2017. Hoegh-Guldberg O, Jacob D, Taylor M, Bindi M, Brown S, Camilloni I, et al. The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5 °C. Science . 2019;365:eaaw6974. International Energy Agency (IEA). Offshore Energy Outlook . Paris (FR): IEA; 2022. International Energy Agency (IEA). World Energy Outlook 2023 . Paris (FR): IEA; 2023. International Organization for Standardization (ISO). ISO 19901-9: Petroleum and Natural 11 Gas Industries—Offshore Structures—Part 9: Stationkeeping Systems . Geneva (CH): ISO; 2019. IPCC. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis . Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge (UK): Cambridge University Press; 2021. Kermani MB, Morshed A. Carbon dioxide corrosion in oil and gas production—A compendium. Corrosion . 2003;59:659–683. doi:10.5006/1.3277599. Kumar U, Markeset T. Development of performance-based service strategies for the oil and gas industry. J Qual Maint Eng . 2017;23:360–376. doi:10.1108/JQME-03-2016-0012. Li X, Zhang J, Xu J. Climate-driven corrosion risk assessment for offshore pipelines. Ocean Eng . 2021;235:109414. doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109414. Melchers RE. Long-term corrosion of steels in seawater. Corros Sci . 2019;147:85–96. doi:10.1016/j.corsci.2018.10.014. Melchers RE, Jeffrey R. Corrosion of long vertical steel strips in the marine environment. Corros Sci . 2018;137:141–154. doi:10.1016/j.corsci.2018.03.015. Miner MA. Cumulative damage in fatigue. J Appl Mech . 1945;12:A159–A164. Obanijesu EO, Omidvarborna H, Yang Y, Panigrahi S. Climate change implications for offshore oil and gas infrastructure. Renew Sustain Energy Rev . 2022;158:112123. Rausand M, Høyland A. System Reliability Theory: Models, Statistical Methods, and Applications . 3rd ed. Hoboken (NJ): Wiley; 2020. Royal Society. Low-Carbon Energy Technologies in a Greenhouse-Constrained World . London (UK): The Royal Society; 2020. Sarkar A, Chakrabarti S, Bhattacharya B. Fatigue reliability analysis of offshore structures under climate change effects. Mar Struct . 2020;72:102765. doi:10.1016/j.marstruc.2020.102765. Sørensen JD. Framework for risk-based planning of operation and maintenance for offshore wind turbines. Wind Energy . 2011;14:593–603. doi:10.1002/we.438. Turnbull A, Wright L, Crocker L. New insight into fatigue crack initiation processes in offshore steels. Eng Fail Anal . 2014;45:56–68. doi:10.1016/j.engfailanal.2014.06.015. UK Government. UK Energy Security Strategy . London (UK): HM Government; 2022. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Adoption of the Paris Agreement . Paris (FR): United Nations; 2015. Wang Y, Melchers RE. Long-term atmospheric corrosion of structural steels. Corros Sci . 2017;124:1–9. doi:10.1016/j.corsci.2017.03.026. Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9473188","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":626373029,"identity":"472a4476-49e9-495c-b4e1-299c04eafeaf","order_by":0,"name":"Nsini Ignatius Udo","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA3klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACxgaGBDAjgfEBA8MB0rQwGxCpBQ4S2CSI0mLOf7jtwYMauzz+9uRn1Tw1d+T4GZgfPrqBR4vljMR2g4RjycUSZ56Z3eY59sxYsoHN2DgHjxaDG4xtEokNzIkNNxKAWtgOJ244wMMmjVfL+YMgLfWJ82+kfyvm+UeMlgOJIC1AlTdyzJh524jRcgOoJeHY8cSNZ94US87tO2ws2UzIL+ePP5P8UVOdOO94+sYPb74dluNnb374GJ8WFMDEAyKZiVUOAow/SFE9CkbBKBgFIwYAAADIU9rzODz0AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Independent researcher","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nsini","middleName":"Ignatius","lastName":"Udo","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-20 13:54:02","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9473188/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9473188/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107453191,"identity":"a27a8286-1611-4ba0-a232-77f8eda47219","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-21 15:31:31","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":73337,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eComparative susceptibility of offshore materials to climate-induced degradation under non-stationary environmental conditions.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9473188/v1/68ef2b534f73a67f4683558e.png"},{"id":107453190,"identity":"4b0091de-99d7-4ee4-a8e5-d37a8b4aeab1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-21 15:31:31","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":208716,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eClimate Stressor Trends\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9473188/v1/9d6c94736bd634afbe1e3bf0.png"},{"id":107453189,"identity":"786a7056-9a5a-401c-bb6d-dbeaa2bda18f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-21 15:31:31","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":108962,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSchematic of Climate-Induced Degradation Mechanisms\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9473188/v1/70ed6b480899ad81797f4497.png"},{"id":109202693,"identity":"cd973473-dbd5-4884-84c1-22ac6b520c33","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-13 14:15:24","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":636496,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9473188/v1/d5d2e532-b37f-470e-8f07-0180cda7176f.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMechanistic Insights into Climate-Driven Degradation of Offshore Mechanical Infrastructure and Implications for Energy System Resilience\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[{"header":"Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003e\"Offshore mechanical infrastructure is also an essential part of the chain of energy infrastructure, and it helps to enable the exploration and production of hydrocarbons, the transport of the energy from the sea to shore via seabed cables, the development of offshore wind farms, and low-carbon technology in the current decade, such as the production of hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS) (International Energy Agency, 2022; Royal Society, 2020). An important point to note is that the integrity of the offshore mechanical infrastructure process itself, with pumps, compressors, and pipes, and in terms of the assembly and installation of subsea infrastructure, is directly dependent upon the security of the supply of energy and the integrity of the market (Helm, 2017; UK Government, 2022).\"\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStatistically significant deviations from the traditional parameters of designs have appeared during the past few decades regarding the operational conditions of the offshore environment. These differences, including the warmed-up sea surface temperatures, changes to salinity, increased levels of wave loads, and enhanced levels of extreme weather occurrences, manifested trends towards the more advanced international offshore fields (IPCC, 2021; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2019). Contrary to the assumptions that consider them as separate, mutually independent load factors, these differences have affected the corrosion rate kinetics, promoted the initial range of fatigue crack initiation, and enhanced corrosion-fatigue damage mechanisms of the metallic structures deployed in the offshore fields (Melchers \u0026amp; Jeffrey, 2018; Sarkar et al., 2020). The mechanisms related to the impacts of the above differences have, instead, appeared to be significant and, particularly, fundamental within the currently operational vintage structures, which initially presented designs and optimizations based on static levels of natural loads and factors of safety (ISO, 2019; S\u0026oslash;rensen, 2011).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOut of the various degradation modes, it is found that degradation modes related to corrosion and fatigue phenomena were specifically accentuating and exacerbating unplanned failures related to mechanical-offshore systems, and specifically under high temperatures (Melchers, 2019; Kumar and Markeset, 2017). It is clearly evident from the results and opinions on various systems that small increases in levels of degradation within corrodents influence and reduce the measures of remaining life and MTBF, and accentuate levels of probabilities of consequences such as forced shutdowns (Rausand and H\u0026oslash;yland, 2020; DNV, 2021). These fall under the general categories related to energy and influence measures such as levels of unavailability, increased levels of expenditures on maintenances, and increased levels on imports within the given quantities corresponding to periods of shutdown (IEA, 2023; Royal Society, 2020).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDespite the presence of an overwhelming amount of knowledge and achievements in the region of corrosion and reliability issues within the offshore scenario, the existing studies have not yet addressed the related challenges together in a formulation that combines the effects of the multi-decade climatic data on probabilistic reliability and energy security issues (Turnbull et al., 2014; Obanijesu et al., 2022). The effects of the climate system in the non-stationary climatic variables of reliability in mechanical systems and energy security concerns have thus not yet received a quantitative response.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe aforementioned gap will be removed in this research work by combining long-term climate and oceanographical parameters (since 1980 until 2023), corrosion and fatigue models, and reliability engineering analysis techniques followed by probability analysis. Monte Carlo analysis will be applied in this research work for simulating uncertainties and modeling extremely non-linear response rates because of dynamic and cumulative climatic changes (Miner, 1945; Paris, 2015). In this research work, a quantitative mechanistic model of climate-resilient offshore asset management will be developed, combining climate-related degradation parameters and RUL, MTBF, and availability parameters, following a theoretical model paradigm for interpreting improvements within the response of the engineering and operation community in a rapidly escalating level of climatic uncertainties (Royal Society, 2020; IEA, 2022).\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Materials and Methods","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.1 Study Design and Methodological Framework\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis research will combine and apply an interdisciplinary approach towards modeling and analysis of the degradation of offshore mechanical infrastructure due to the impact of climate change and, subsequently, the effects on the reliability and performance of energy security in a changed climate. This is done by combining the field of climate change studies with materials science.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIt involves three crucial aspects of the methodological approach, and all these aspects are inter-related.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1.1. The analysis of the data is focused on making an assessment that will outline multi-decadal trends of sea surface temperature (SST), change in salinity, wave loads, and extreme events associated with the influence of the mentioned climate-driven stressors that offshore mechanical structures are usually subject to, such as increased corrosion levels, fatigue forces, and material degradation on these structures. The date ranges considered were from the year 1980 up until the year 2023, which were obtained from reputable global data repositories, such as IPCC AR6, NOAA, and ERA5 Reanalysis Data set from ECMWF, amongst others, in order to ensure the efficiency, traceability, and reproducibility of data.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1.2. \"Materials degradation assessment\" relates to the description of corrosion, fatigue, and combined corrosion-fatigue failure mechanisms for the relevant offshore materials, including carbon steel, martensitic, and duplex stainless steel, nickel-based alloys, as well as protective coatings. Equations deduced from the failure mechanisms that included Arrhenius-type dependence of temperature, chloride-induced stress corrosion cracking, as well as Miner's rule for cumulating fatigue damage, could predict material degradation rates due to dynamic environmental loading conditions. Material degradation rates and failures in service for offshore structures in operation were then referred to for validation of the modeling prognoses.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1.3 Reliability-based engineering assessment links material deterioration to important key performance indicators MTBF and RUL by doing a quantitative assessment of reliability against changing climate factors. Reliability-based engineering assessment of the impact of material deterioration on energy security concerns of operational availability, unplanned downtime events and maintenance costs, and energy disruption risk due to material failures and material-related failures in the energy industry has been done by probabilistic and Monte-Carlo simulations of uncertain variables linked to environmental and material parameters against material deterioration models.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe points settled between the client and some other party are what are usually framed.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.2 Data Sources and Environmental Parameters\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eInformation was gathered from prominent repositories to make it relevant to the field of engineering. Major climatic and oceanographic factors that influence the three forms of degradation were taken into account\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eClimate and oceanographic datasets used in the study\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"4\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eParameter\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eData Source\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eTime Coverage\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEngineering Relevance\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSea surface temperature (SST)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eIPCC AR6, NOAA\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1980\u0026ndash;2023\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccelerates corrosion kinetics and material aging\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSeawater salinity\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWorld Ocean Database\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1980\u0026ndash;2023\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eInfluences pitting and crevice corrosion\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWave height \u0026amp; spectral loading\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eERA5 Reanalysis (ECMWF)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1990\u0026ndash;2023\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDrives fatigue damage accumulation\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eExtreme weather frequency\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eIPCC AR6\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1980\u0026ndash;2023\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eIncreases overload and shock-induced failures\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAtmospheric CO₂ concentration\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNOAA ESRL\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1980\u0026ndash;2023\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eContributes to ocean acidification and material degradation\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe data sets in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e above represent the key factors for climate and oceanographic influences on the processes of corrosion, fatigue, and corrosion-fatigue damage for the mechanical systems utilized for off-shore purposes on the time scale associated with the entire life cycle of such assets. The data for the research has been obtained from international public access datasets (1980\u0026ndash;2023), and it ensures traceability, robustness, and reproducibility, as the data\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe statistical analysis included trend analysis, analysis of variance, and uncertainty analysis, which made it possible to carry out modeling on past fluctuations on a longer-term cycle that is appropriate and significant within the context of an asset life cycle.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec5\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.3 Offshore Mechanical Systems and Materials Considered\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec6\" class=\"Section3\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.3.1 Mechanical Systems\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe critical offshore mechanical systems considered for the study have a high relevant rate, failure rate, and implications for energy security. The critical systems considered have the potential to create a cascading effect due to failure implications for energy security, cost, and safety in the sector (IEA, 2023; Helm, 2017). The critical offshore mechanical systems considered for the study include:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eCentrifugal and Positive Displacement Pumps\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIt is an important component of fluid transportation systems found in oil, gas, and water operations related to cooling systems, firewater systems, and chemical injection lines. Pumping systems are prone to erosion, cavitation, corrosion, and fatigue, particularly while handling highly saline fluids or fluids that require controlled temperatures (Melchers \u0026amp; Jeffrey, 2018; Kermani \u0026amp; Morshed, 2003). Their failure causes problems of system shutdown, the environment, and high repair costs.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eGas compressors and turbines\u003c/b\u003e:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCritical in gas processing, injection, gas, as well as power plants. These processes require or portend faster rotation speeds, higher temperatures, or different conditions under pressurized environments, leading to failure through fatigue, failure through corrosion by stresses, or failure through thermomechanics. Their level of importance is most critical in ensuring reliability in offshore platforms (Sarkar et al., 2020; Obanijesu et al., 2022).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eOffshore Pipelining and Riser.\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePipelines carry hydrocarbons, water, and chemicals from or between underwater wells/platforms and onshore facilities. The structure is under harsh marine dynamic forces, changes in internal pressures, and corrosive conditions of the surrounding water; hence they experience pit corrosion, crevice corrosion, and stress corrosion cracking of metals. In addition, pipeline failure can have severe repercussions of oil spilling and loss of functionality, particularly if energy is involved.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eFirewater and cooling water systems\u003c/b\u003e:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCritical Safety and Operational Infrastructures serving as a risk mitigation platform to thermal control of the high heat process environment. Critical infrastructures failure due to biological fouling, corrosion, and material fatigue leakage can therefore create the development of risks in the platform and henceforth regulatory non-compliance.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eSubsea Mechanical Assemblies\u003c/b\u003e:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eriser clamp, riser connector, riser valve actuator, riser\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe pressure, salinity levels, and even low temperatures in subsea environments are moderately high; thus, such environments are further vulnerable to crevice corrosion, galvanic corrosion, and cyclic fatigue mechanisms. Repair costs in subsea environments are comparatively very high and hence the need for reliability-centered methodologies.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese mechanical systems have been selected to cover a wide range of offshore facilities, from the rotating/static systems, fluid and gas handling systems, to safety-related systems, so that climate adaptive degradation models and reliability analysis may be generalized to a wide range of offshore facilities.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec7\" class=\"Section3\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.3.2 Materials\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese materials are selected because these are the ones most frequently encountered in offshore mechanical systems and are most likely to become degraded by climactic conditions, and are most vital to the dependability of offshore mechanical systems:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eCarbon steels API 5L grades -\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese steels are usually utilized in the erection of pipelines, structural support, and pressure vessels. These steels are prone to a uniform corrosion and pitting attacks due mainly to a high SST and salinity difference. Corrosion allowance designs, paints, and cathodic protection methods that were very effective, became unsuccessful under unstationary and climatic conditions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eMartensitic stainless steel\u003c/b\u003e:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese steels, which are being extensively used in rotary machinery, pumps, and valves, possess some resistance to corrosion with higher hardness and fatigue strength. However, high temperature, variation in salt concentration, and influence of chlorides in stress corrosion help positively to accelerate corrosion.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eDuplex Stainless Steels\u003c/b\u003e:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIt is commonly applied in the manufacture of high-strength structural devices and pipes, where pitting and stress-corrosion cracking are greater. However, the possibility of fatigue crack growth still exists, especially those under wave dynamic loading/temperature variations in aged infrastructure (Sarkar et al., 2020; Li et al., 2021).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eNickel-based alloys\u003c/b\u003e:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese are used in blades of turbines, underwater connectors, and points of chemical injection. Nickel alloys have good corrosion resistance qualities, but corrosion can occur to these alloys due to high saline concentration, biological fouling, and high temperatures, particularly in the offshore industry.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eCoatings protections et protections cathodiques\u003c/b\u003e :\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe effectiveness of these coatings has been viewed also concerning the ability to withstand simulative mechanical and environmental loads, high SST, salinity variations, wave cycle loads, and storm conditions. This coating performance reduction, cathodic efficiency, and mechanical failure can precipitate accelerated corrosion-fatigue interactions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMoreover, the selection criteria looked at economical and functional effects, focusing on which material, after degrading, posed the highest risk to system downtime, repair, and potential hazard to energy integrity and security. It is worth noting that such selection for the material is not solely based on the above criteria but may consider other factors depending on the project to be accomplished.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e above compares the effects of the increasing service temperature of the sea surface, water salinity variations, and cyclic loads on the vulnerability of various offshore materials with respect to corrosion, fatigue, and the effects of mutually combined processes of the first and second types, respectively.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec8\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.4 Degradation Mechanism Identification\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eDegradation mechanisms were mapped using \u003cb\u003emechanism-based assessment\u003c/b\u003e, linking environmental stressors to material response. Coupled degradation processes, particularly \u003cb\u003ecorrosion\u0026ndash;fatigue interactions\u003c/b\u003e, were emphasized.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab2\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 2\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eClimate drivers and associated degradation mechanisms\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"3\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eClimate Stressor\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMechanical Effect\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDominant Degradation Mechanism\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eElevated SST\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eIncreased reaction kinetics\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eUniform and localised corrosion\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSalinity variability\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eElectrochemical instability\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePitting and crevice corrosion\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eIncreased wave loading\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCyclic stress amplification\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eHigh-cycle and low-cycle fatigue\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eExtreme storms\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eTransient overloads\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCrack initiation and propagation\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eOcean acidification\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eReduced passivity\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccelerated metal dissolution\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Table \u003cspan refid=\"Tab2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e above correlates the prevailing climate factors to their mechanical loads and respective degradation modes, thereby creating the basis for establishing linkages between climatic variability and routes of material degradation. The degradation modelling and analysis in the next sections will draw on these relations.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCoupled degradation processes, particularly \u003cb\u003ecorrosion\u0026ndash;fatigue interactions\u003c/b\u003e, were emphasized due to their significant effect on offshore rotating and pressure-containing equipment.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec9\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.5 Degradation Rate and Reliability Assessment\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eCorrosion rate\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eEstimated using Arrhenius-type temperature dependency models adjusted for salinity and dissolved oxygen.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eFatigue damage\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eAssessed using Miner\u0026rsquo;s linear damage accumulation with climate-adjusted load spectra.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eReliability metrics\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eMTBF, RUL, and failure rate trends.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eRUL Calculation (plain text)\u003c/b\u003e:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRUL = (Current MTBF\u0026thinsp;\u0026divide;\u0026thinsp;Design MTBF) \u0026times; Design Life (1)\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eUncertainty Quantification\u003c/b\u003e:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonte Carlo simulations to propagate variability in environmental parameters, material properties, and model assumptions\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSensitivity analysis to identify dominant contributors to degradation\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eValidation\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eField-reported degradation rates and literature (Melchers, 2019; Turnbull et al., 2014) were used for model validation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec10\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.6 Energy Security Impact Assessment\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eFailure consequences were evaluated across operational availability, maintenance cost escalation, and supply disruption risk.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab3\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 3\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eOffshore degradation impacts on energy security (Quantitative)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"4\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDegradation\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSeverity\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMechanical Impact\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnergy Security Implication\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative Estimate\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLow\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eIncreased inspection demand\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eHigher OPEX, manageable risk\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1\u0026ndash;3% reduction in availability; 2\u0026ndash;5 days/year supply disruption; OPEX\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;3\u0026ndash;5%\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eModerate\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eReduced MTBF, unplanned shutdowns\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSupply intermittency\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e5\u0026ndash;10% reduction in availability; 10\u0026ndash;15 days/year disruption; 1\u0026ndash;5% annual energy output loss; OPEX\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;10\u0026ndash;12%\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSevere\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCatastrophic failure risk\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMajor production loss, import dependency\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eUp to 25% reduction in availability; \u0026gt;30 days/year disruption; up to 15% energy output loss; OPEX\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;15\u0026ndash;20%; import dependency\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;5\u0026ndash;10%\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Table \u003cspan refid=\"Tab3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e above show the quantitative results provide a summary of the effects of the mechanical degradation due to climate on the Operational Availability, Maintenance Costs, and Risk of Supply Disruption. These values have been obtained on the basis of Reliability Parameters such as MTBF \u0026amp; RUL, which have been carried out with the help of probabilistic degradation models.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec11\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.7 Limitations and Robustness\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eDespite the use of high-quality secondary datasets, \u003cb\u003esite-specific variability, material heterogeneity, and model assumptions\u003c/b\u003e introduce uncertainties. Probabilistic approaches and digital twin-based validation are recommended for future studies.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"Results","content":"\u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003e4.1 Climate Trends and Offshore Degradation\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe SST levels have gained incrementally; therefore, with better stimulation, carbon steel and martensitic stainless steel corroded more rapidly.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eSalinity variation promotes pitting and crevice corrosion.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe worsening of fatigue damage due to increased intensity and occurrence of wave events in piping, risers, and other rotor machinery.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eThere could be large differences between legacy assumptions and actual exposure. These are liable to be more extreme in aging assets..\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e \u003cp\u003eEasy to apply, especially on aging equipment.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/li\u003e \u003c/ul\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e above presents long-term trends (1980\u0026ndash;2023) of important climate factors impacting offshore mechanical deterioration: sea surface temperature, salinity variability, and extreme waves. Such long-term trends form the foundation for the deterioration rate and overall availability analysis conducted for old offshore equipment based on the environment described above.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec13\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.2 Degradation Mechanisms\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eCorrosion-fatigue interaction is the primary mode of failure.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe thermal and chemical stresses accelerate the electrochemical kinetics, while cyclic loads caused by wave currents account for crack development.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProtective coatings and cathodic protection lose much of their effectiveness when combined with exposure to harsh environmental and mechanical forces.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReductions of RUL and MTBF suggest nonlinear trends that cannot be expressed using classic formulas..\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFigure \u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e. Schematic representation of climate-induced degradation pathways in offshore mechanical systems, highlighting the interaction between corrosion and fatigue under non-stationary environmental conditions\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec14\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.3 Reliability and Energy Security Implications\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn turn, when it comes to the offshore environment, the damage caused to mechanical systems due to climate-related factors to energy security is non-linear and quantifiable: A 20\u0026ndash;30% reduction in MTBF indicates a loss in operational availability of 5\u0026ndash;10% and up to 10\u0026ndash;15 days per year lost in supply, while damage above 50%, in terms of RUL, results in significant losses in availability to as high as 25% in certain cases, disruption times to over 30 days per year, with output losses above 15% in particular; such are the consequences of mutually interacting corrosion-fatigue damage in a time-varying environment, which are not presently accounted for through established models of maintenance.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe projected rise in failure rates due to increased degradation added to the offshore reliability costs of about 10\u0026ndash;15%, apart from systemic energy security challenges. While under medium to extreme degradation, the lower availability off-shore is linked to a 5\u0026ndash;10% increase in energy import dependence, and this is pointing at climate-induced mechanical degradation as a grave factor impeding offshore reliability.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative data:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative analysis correlates the decrease in MTBF with the magnitude of possible potential energy gaps, confirming degradation in reliability as the root cause underlying vulnerability in the reliability of offshore energy provision. A decrease in mean time between failures due to increasing climate change factors ensures that the chances of forced outages will increase as the number of failures increases. The results also have implications that establish that it is about time conventional models of maintenance defined by historical patterns were abandoned, for adaptation of asset management practices that anticipate challenges provided by prospects of climatic uncertainty.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis work mechanistically and probabilistically links climate change to the degradation of mechanical systems in the offshore environment and energy system resilience. By integrating multi-decadal climate data with degradation modelling and reliability analysis, this work shows that conventional maintenance and design frameworks understate failure risk under evolving environmental conditions. This framework thus provides a solid foundation for climate-adaptive asset management and contributes to the development of resilient energy systems facing growing climatic uncertainty\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e \u003ch2\u003eEthical Statement\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis research did not involve human participants, human data, or animal subjects. As such, ethical approval and informed consent were not required for this study.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e \u003ch2\u003eData Accessibility\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eAll data used in this study are derived from publicly accessible, internationally recognised repositories. No new primary data were generated.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe datasets analysed include:Climate and oceanographic data from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), NOAA, the World Ocean Database, and ERA5 Reanalysis (ECMWF).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAtmospheric CO₂ concentration data from NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAll datasets are accessible through the original data providers and are cited within the manuscript reference list. Derived data, tables, and analytical outputs supporting the findings of this study are fully contained within the article. No additional code or proprietary software was developed for this research.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e \u003ch2\u003eCompeting Interests\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe author declare that they have no competing interests\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eFunding Statement\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eAuthor Contributions\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eAuthor contributed substantially to the conception and design of the study; acquisition, analysis, and interpretation of data; drafting and critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content; and final approval of the version to be published.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eAcknowledgments\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe author acknowledge the developers and custodians of the international climate, oceanographic, and offshore engineering databases utilised in this study, including the IPCC, NOAA, ECMWF, and the World Ocean Database, for making high-quality datasets publicly available. The author also acknowledge insights from prior offshore engineering practice and standards development that informed the interpretation of degradation mechanisms.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAzad AK, Hossain MS, Islam R. Climate resilience of offshore energy infrastructure. \u003cem\u003eEnergy Rep\u003c/em\u003e. 2020;6:261\u0026ndash;271. doi:10.1016/j.egyr.2020.11.109.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eBhattacharya S, Adhikari S. Experimental validation of offshore structure fatigue models. \u003cem\u003eOcean Eng\u003c/em\u003e. 2011;38:1463\u0026ndash;1476. doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2011.06.004.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eDNV. \u003cem\u003eDNV-RP-C203: Fatigue Design of Offshore Steel Structures\u003c/em\u003e. Oslo (NO): DNV; 2021.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eFerreira JA, Branco CM. Fatigue behaviour of offshore structural components under variable amplitude loading. \u003cem\u003eInt J Fatigue\u003c/em\u003e. 2016;82:470\u0026ndash;479. doi:10.1016/j.ijfatigue.2015.09.013.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eHelm D. \u003cem\u003eBurn Out: The Endgame for Fossil Fuels\u003c/em\u003e. New Haven (CT): Yale University Press; 2017.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eHoegh-Guldberg O, Jacob D, Taylor M, Bindi M, Brown S, Camilloni I, et al. The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5 \u0026deg;C. \u003cem\u003eScience\u003c/em\u003e. 2019;365:eaaw6974.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eInternational Energy Agency (IEA). \u003cem\u003eOffshore Energy Outlook\u003c/em\u003e. Paris (FR): IEA; 2022.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eInternational Energy Agency (IEA). \u003cem\u003eWorld Energy Outlook 2023\u003c/em\u003e. Paris (FR): IEA; 2023.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eInternational Organization for Standardization (ISO). \u003cem\u003eISO 19901-9: Petroleum and Natural 11 Gas Industries\u0026mdash;Offshore Structures\u0026mdash;Part 9: Stationkeeping Systems\u003c/em\u003e. Geneva (CH): ISO; 2019.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eIPCC. \u003cem\u003eClimate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis\u003c/em\u003e. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge (UK): Cambridge University Press; 2021.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eKermani MB, Morshed A. Carbon dioxide corrosion in oil and gas production\u0026mdash;A compendium. \u003cem\u003eCorrosion\u003c/em\u003e. 2003;59:659\u0026ndash;683. doi:10.5006/1.3277599.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eKumar U, Markeset T. Development of performance-based service strategies for the oil and gas industry. \u003cem\u003eJ Qual Maint Eng\u003c/em\u003e. 2017;23:360\u0026ndash;376. doi:10.1108/JQME-03-2016-0012.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eLi X, Zhang J, Xu J. Climate-driven corrosion risk assessment for offshore pipelines. \u003cem\u003eOcean Eng\u003c/em\u003e. 2021;235:109414. doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109414.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eMelchers RE. Long-term corrosion of steels in seawater. \u003cem\u003eCorros Sci\u003c/em\u003e. 2019;147:85\u0026ndash;96. doi:10.1016/j.corsci.2018.10.014.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eMelchers RE, Jeffrey R. Corrosion of long vertical steel strips in the marine environment. \u003cem\u003eCorros Sci\u003c/em\u003e. 2018;137:141\u0026ndash;154. doi:10.1016/j.corsci.2018.03.015.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eMiner MA. Cumulative damage in fatigue. \u003cem\u003eJ Appl Mech\u003c/em\u003e. 1945;12:A159\u0026ndash;A164.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eObanijesu EO, Omidvarborna H, Yang Y, Panigrahi S. Climate change implications for offshore oil and gas infrastructure. \u003cem\u003eRenew Sustain Energy Rev\u003c/em\u003e. 2022;158:112123.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eRausand M, H\u0026oslash;yland A. \u003cem\u003eSystem Reliability Theory: Models, Statistical Methods, and Applications\u003c/em\u003e. 3rd ed. Hoboken (NJ): Wiley; 2020.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eRoyal Society. \u003cem\u003eLow-Carbon Energy Technologies in a Greenhouse-Constrained World\u003c/em\u003e. London (UK): The Royal Society; 2020.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eSarkar A, Chakrabarti S, Bhattacharya B. Fatigue reliability analysis of offshore structures under climate change effects. \u003cem\u003eMar Struct\u003c/em\u003e. 2020;72:102765. doi:10.1016/j.marstruc.2020.102765.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eS\u0026oslash;rensen JD. Framework for risk-based planning of operation and maintenance for offshore wind turbines. \u003cem\u003eWind Energy\u003c/em\u003e. 2011;14:593\u0026ndash;603. doi:10.1002/we.438.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eTurnbull A, Wright L, Crocker L. New insight into fatigue crack initiation processes in offshore steels. \u003cem\u003eEng Fail Anal\u003c/em\u003e. 2014;45:56\u0026ndash;68. doi:10.1016/j.engfailanal.2014.06.015.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eUK Government. \u003cem\u003eUK Energy Security Strategy\u003c/em\u003e. London (UK): HM Government; 2022.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). \u003cem\u003eAdoption of the Paris Agreement\u003c/em\u003e. Paris (FR): United Nations; 2015.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eWang Y, Melchers RE. Long-term atmospheric corrosion of structural steels. \u003cem\u003eCorros Sci\u003c/em\u003e. 2017;124:1\u0026ndash;9. doi:10.1016/j.corsci.2017.03.026.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"None","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Offshore mechanical infrastructure, climate-induced degradation, corrosion–fatigue interaction, reliability engineering, energy security","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9473188/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9473188/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe world depends upon the use of offshore mechanical systems in the energy sector, as the world operates these systems in the global arena. However, of late, these offshore mechanical systems have remained vulnerable to non-stationary climate forces. Although it is clear how the failures of the entire process are measured in the case of offshore mechanical systems, it is not yet clear how the entire process of these failures, measured against the climate change resilience capacity of the offshore mechanical system, will happen. In the proposed research study, the climate and oceanographic change information available between the 1980s and 2023 will be used, combined with the theories regarding the loss of effectiveness of the offshore mechanical system because of corrosion and fatigue, in order to realistically identify the impact of climate change upon the effectiveness loss in the case of offshore mechanical systems. The result results of the proposed research study will qualitatively describe the impact of the total process of the failure of the individual factors, which will describe the loss of effectiveness of 5% to 10% because of the action of medium climate force and 25% because of the action of high climate force at the offshore mechanical system level.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Mechanistic Insights into Climate-Driven Degradation of Offshore Mechanical Infrastructure and Implications for Energy System Resilience","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-21 15:31:26","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9473188/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"389c401f-4791-4a19-99a7-b24cdfdbe19c","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 21st, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":66663969,"name":"Energy Engineering"},{"id":66663970,"name":"Ocean Engineering"},{"id":66663971,"name":"Mechanical Engineering"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-21T15:31:26+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-21 15:31:26","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9473188","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9473188","identity":"rs-9473188","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}