Decadal Trends Analysis of Extreme High Temperatures and Case Simulation Assessment in Summer over Eastern China

Decadal Trends Analysis of Extreme High Temperatures and Case Simulation Assessment in Summer over Eastern China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Decadal Trends Analysis of Extreme High Temperatures and Case Simulation Assessment in Summer over Eastern China Xuemin Shen, Aixia Feng, Changgui Gu, Qiguang Wang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4440916/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Using the maximum temperature, minimum temperature and average temperature data from the 0.5° × 0.5° grid datasets (V2.0) covering China during 1961–2022, this study conducts a temporal and spatial analysis of temperature trend variations in summer in the region of east of 110°E in China. The results indicate that all the three temperatures show an increasing trend from 1961 to 2022, with the minimum temperature exhibiting a faster warming rate. After 2011, the three temperatures rise significantly higher than that in previous decades, with the average and maximum temperatures increasing by 0.04°C and 0.05°C, respectively. Approximately 22.34% part of the study region is covered with an annual average temperature between 27–30°C, increasing 14.49% compared to the smallest proportion. And the area with the annual average maximum temperature ranging from 30–33°C reach 64.1%. After 2011, the frequency of grid points experiencing heatwaves are more than 60 times which is doubled compared with other decades,while with an earlier onset dates occurring on April 2nd and later retreat dates on October 12th. In the summer of 2022, all three temperatures in the region show hotter than the annual average, with high anomaly values concentrating on the central area. Additionally, based on the hindcast of four operational models in 2022, this study evaluates their abilities to predict high temperature and heatwaves in the summer of 2022. The result shows that UKMO exhibits the best capability for predicting maximum temperature and heatwave. The results suggest that the heat extremes can become more frequent and intenser in the coming decade. And the evaluation of four models can provide some help to improve the ability of prediction. Extreme high temperature Heatwave Variation of trend Model evaluation Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4440916","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":307423492,"identity":"3eb64527-c925-422c-ae43-30f5ced87f91","order_by":0,"name":"Xuemin Shen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Shanghai for Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xuemin","middleName":"","lastName":"Shen","suffix":""},{"id":307423496,"identity":"037cc007-5c79-4f86-844c-0fac1f64ed34","order_by":1,"name":"Aixia Feng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Meteorological Information Center, China Meteorological Administration","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Aixia","middleName":"","lastName":"Feng","suffix":""},{"id":307423497,"identity":"bc97be21-ae0d-4fa6-8480-2da3624620c5","order_by":2,"name":"Changgui Gu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Shanghai for Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Changgui","middleName":"","lastName":"Gu","suffix":""},{"id":307423498,"identity":"2f4493b2-2ec6-49dc-a949-b054b3675d22","order_by":3,"name":"Qiguang Wang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAyUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYPACG9K1pJGu5TAJag2Onz384s2v8/K67QeYX3xsY5A3J6jlTF6a5dy+24bbziSwWc5sYzDc2UBAi9mBHDNj3p7bCWYHEtiMec4wJBgcIKTl/BuQlnMJZucfEKvlRo7xY54fBxLMbiQwP+apIEKL/Y03ZoxzG5INt9142MY4o0LCcAMhLZL9OcYf3vyxkzc7n3z4wwcDG3mCtgABmwRvG4hmbJNgYJAgrB4ImD/w/IEyiFI/CkbBKBgFIw4AAF/gRVoA8QsLAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"China Meteorological Administration Training Center, China Meteorological Administration","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qiguang","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-05-18 11:53:24","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4440916/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4440916/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":59660354,"identity":"1cbbdea4-627e-4406-a6d6-3488a379e3b2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-07-04 11:44:46","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1204869,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"XueminShen20240518.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4440916/v1_covered_88a18c75-1b08-4531-9690-25136c9797c0.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Decadal Trends Analysis of Extreme High Temperatures and Case Simulation Assessment in Summer over Eastern China","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Extreme high temperature, Heatwave, Variation of trend, Model evaluation","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4440916/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4440916/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eUsing the maximum temperature, minimum temperature and average temperature data from the 0.5\u0026deg; \u0026times; 0.5\u0026deg; grid datasets (V2.0) covering China during 1961\u0026ndash;2022, this study conducts a temporal and spatial analysis of temperature trend variations in summer in the region of east of 110\u0026deg;E in China. The results indicate that all the three temperatures show an increasing trend from 1961 to 2022, with the minimum temperature exhibiting a faster warming rate. After 2011, the three temperatures rise significantly higher than that in previous decades, with the average and maximum temperatures increasing by 0.04\u0026deg;C and 0.05\u0026deg;C, respectively. Approximately 22.34% part of the study region is covered with an annual average temperature between 27\u0026ndash;30\u0026deg;C, increasing 14.49% compared to the smallest proportion. And the area with the annual average maximum temperature ranging from 30\u0026ndash;33\u0026deg;C reach 64.1%. After 2011, the frequency of grid points experiencing heatwaves are more than 60 times which is doubled compared with other decades,while with an earlier onset dates occurring on April 2nd and later retreat dates on October 12th. In the summer of 2022, all three temperatures in the region show hotter than the annual average, with high anomaly values concentrating on the central area. Additionally, based on the hindcast of four operational models in 2022, this study evaluates their abilities to predict high temperature and heatwaves in the summer of 2022. The result shows that UKMO exhibits the best capability for predicting maximum temperature and heatwave. The results suggest that the heat extremes can become more frequent and intenser in the coming decade. And the evaluation of four models can provide some help to improve the ability of prediction.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Decadal Trends Analysis of Extreme High Temperatures and Case Simulation Assessment in Summer over Eastern China","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-05-30 06:05:35","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4440916/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"6018476c-05e3-4daa-8af4-081d3d263a3f","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 30th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-07-04T11:36:38+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-05-30 06:05:35","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4440916","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4440916","identity":"rs-4440916","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}