Closing Protection Gaps: Uninsurability and Equity in India under Rising Climate Risk

Closing Protection Gaps: Uninsurability and Equity in India under Rising Climate Risk | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Closing Protection Gaps: Uninsurability and Equity in India under Rising Climate Risk Architesh Panda This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7494732/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change is rapidly eroding the boundaries of insurability, especially in low- and middle-income countries where institutional fragility compounds physical hazard exposure. This paper develops a novel district-level Uninsurability Index for India, integrating high-resolution flood hazard projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios with measures of insurance system performance and social equity derived from crop insurance data. Results for 676 districts reveal stark spatial disparities: while most districts currently fall in the ''very low'' or ''low'' uninsurability range, exposure intensifies sharply under RCP 8.5, doubling the number of high-risk districts. Sensitivity analysis shows that institutional choices are decisive: progressive reforms in coverage and inclusion can reduce high-risk districts by one-fifth, whereas regressive policy erosion doubles them and creates extreme cases of structural uninsurability. The findings demonstrate that uninsurability is not predetermined by hazard alone, but emerges from the intersection of climatic extremes, weak institutional delivery, and inequitable access. By proposing a typology of actuarial, market, and social uninsurability and operationalizing it in a composite index, this study offers a transferable diagnostic tool for identifying resilience thresholds in Global South contexts. The results underscore the urgent need for anticipatory governance and equity-sensitive climate finance to close protection gaps and to treat insurance systems as adaptive infrastructure for climate resilience. Uninsurability Climate Finance Risk Transfer Equity LMICs Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7494732","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":512797163,"identity":"85ed80c7-31d3-4675-8a39-720444119c5d","order_by":0,"name":"Architesh Panda","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA10lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACNoYEIGnA3gAiLYjVAtRjwHMApEWCSC0gawwkQHYxEKGFf/bhZw8e/rCxN5d8fnXDjwIJBv727gS8WiTOpZkbJCSkJe6cnVN2swfoMIkzZzfgt+YMD5tEQsLhBIPbOWk3eIBaDCRy8WuRh2j5b29w80zazT/EaDGAaDnAuOEG+7HbRNlieIbNTCIhLTlxw5kcttsyBhI8BP0id4b5meQPGzt7g+PHn91888dGjr+9l4D3EYDHAEwSqxwE2B+QonoUjIJRMApGEAAArbdF8ojPS1MAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Independent Researcher","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Architesh","middleName":"","lastName":"Panda","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-30 10:38:24","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7494732/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7494732/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":91043259,"identity":"85e807a7-8035-4124-9e50-9f5bcd05b6f8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-11 04:40:58","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":6857599,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"RECManuscript1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7494732/v1_covered_ba057cd4-b539-42b6-809b-1da4e5b8b0bf.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Closing Protection Gaps: Uninsurability and Equity in India under Rising Climate Risk","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Uninsurability, Climate Finance, Risk Transfer, Equity, LMICs","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7494732/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7494732/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Climate change is rapidly eroding the boundaries of insurability, especially in low- and middle-income countries where institutional fragility compounds physical hazard exposure. This paper develops a novel district-level Uninsurability Index for India, integrating high-resolution flood hazard projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios with measures of insurance system performance and social equity derived from crop insurance data. Results for 676 districts reveal stark spatial disparities: while most districts currently fall in the ''very low'' or ''low'' uninsurability range, exposure intensifies sharply under RCP 8.5, doubling the number of high-risk districts. Sensitivity analysis shows that institutional choices are decisive: progressive reforms in coverage and inclusion can reduce high-risk districts by one-fifth, whereas regressive policy erosion doubles them and creates extreme cases of structural uninsurability. \nThe findings demonstrate that uninsurability is not predetermined by hazard alone, but emerges from the intersection of climatic extremes, weak institutional delivery, and inequitable access. By proposing a typology of actuarial, market, and social uninsurability and operationalizing it in a composite index, this study offers a transferable diagnostic tool for identifying resilience thresholds in Global South contexts. 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