Dynamic effects of shock-dependent Phillips curve on economic growth rate and exchange rate: Evidence from some African countries

Dynamic effects of shock-dependent Phillips curve on economic growth rate and exchange rate: Evidence from some African countries | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Dynamic effects of shock-dependent Phillips curve on economic growth rate and exchange rate: Evidence from some African countries Hassan Tawakol Ahmed Fadol This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7502478/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study examines how a shock-dependent Phillips Curve affects economic growth and exchange rate changes in six African nations between 1980 and 2024. Using PSVAR, CIR, and panel GLM approaches, the study shows how inflation affects economic growth and exchange rates differs by country and shock type. Key findings include the negative consequences of supply-side shocks in structurally weak countries, as well as different exchange rate reactions influenced by monetary frameworks. The paper emphasizes the importance of structural determinants and policy credibility in managing inflation and exchange rate volatility, and it recommends state-contingent monetary policies as well as improved transmission channels. Econometrics Shock-Dependent Phillips Curve Inflation Dynamics Economic Growth Exchange Rate Volatility Economy of Africa Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7502478","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":508119611,"identity":"e07871b2-d59f-4bfb-a645-4960872cc0ec","order_by":0,"name":"Hassan Tawakol Ahmed Fadol","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABA0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFCCBMYDEAZj44MPBjZgxgECWhigCpibDWcUpIG0NBCrhb1NmufDYTATrxaD48kPDvxss5HjZz/YJjnD4Lzd2vbDQFtqbKJxajnzzOBgb1uasWRPYrPFB4PbydvOJAK1HEvLbcChxexGgsEB3m2HEzccSGy8OQOoxewAUAtjw2E8WtI/HPy77X/9/vMPG6R5DM4lmwEZBLTkGBzm3XYgwUAisQmo5YCd2Q0CttifeVNwWPZfsuGMGw+BgWyQnGB2A2hLAh6/SLanb3z45oydPH9/+sMHH/7Y2ZudBzFqbHBqwQCJYJUJxCoHu5QUxaNgFIyCUTAyAAAQjXJ0M9EuMAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4456-9082","institution":"Sudan University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hassan","middleName":"Tawakol Ahmed","lastName":"Fadol","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-31 19:12:54","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":true,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":true},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7502478/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7502478/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":90461112,"identity":"4d89a380-f4cf-47df-8056-87dd386637d0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-03 04:04:05","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":708867,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Ph.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7502478/v1_covered_254379a4-52d9-4f28-8780-21dcc9ebd547.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eDynamic effects of shock-dependent Phillips curve on economic growth rate and exchange rate: Evidence from some African countries\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[{"identity":"da721118-5441-4ad5-a05d-25a4d99e04d3","identifier":"10.13039/100016884","name":"Hakai Institute","awardNumber":"HYTDW-8473210","order_by":0}],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Sudan University of Science and Technology","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Shock-Dependent Phillips Curve, Inflation Dynamics, Economic Growth, Exchange Rate Volatility, Economy of Africa","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7502478/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7502478/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study examines how a shock-dependent Phillips Curve affects economic growth and exchange rate changes in six African nations between 1980 and 2024. 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