Recent change in ENSO’s impacts on the summertime circumglobal teleconnection and mid-latitude extremes

Recent change in ENSO’s impacts on the summertime circumglobal teleconnection and mid-latitude extremes | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Recent change in ENSO’s impacts on the summertime circumglobal teleconnection and mid-latitude extremes Shaobo Qiao, Shankai Tang, Bin Wang, Fei Liu, Xian Zhu, Taichen Feng, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4477366/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 14 Jan, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The boreal summer circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) provides valuable predictability sources for mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere climate anomalies and extreme events. Here, we show that the CGT’s circulation structure has displaced westward by a half-wavelength since the late 1970s, more severely impacting heatwaves and droughts over East Europe, East Asia and southwestern America. We present convergent empirical and modelling evidence to reveal the essential role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in shaping this change. Before the late 1970s, ENSO indirectly promoted CGT by modulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Recently, the ENSO–ISMR linkage was weakened, but the westward-displaced ENSO forcing was able to directly trigger a Rossby wave response at the exit of the East Asian westerly jet due to the easterly vertical shear of the zonal basic flow over the tropical western North Pacific, thus shifting the previous CGT’s North Pacific and downstream centers westward along the subtropical jet waveguide. Moreover, the state-of-the-art models with prescribed anthropogenic forcing cannot simulate such changes, indicating their origin from natural variability. The knowledge gained from this work highlights the importance of studying the impacts of changing ENSO to improve seasonal prediction of mid-latitude extreme events. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 14 Jan, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4477366","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":309428002,"identity":"f687d4ff-cc99-4390-9ac5-8a4ea4c13765","order_by":0,"name":"Shaobo 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