Maritime Continent Convection as a Driver of Arctic Oscillation Variability on Decadal Timescales

Maritime Continent Convection as a Driver of Arctic Oscillation Variability on Decadal Timescales | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Maritime Continent Convection as a Driver of Arctic Oscillation Variability on Decadal Timescales Eun-Ji Song, Sinil Yang, Baek-Min Kim, Jung Ok, Kyung-On Boo, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6273805/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a prominent atmospheric pattern dominating Northern Hemisphere climate variability. While its prediction is important, underlying mechanisms driving AO variability are not fully understood. Our analysis reveals that convective activity over the Maritime Continent (MC), a key tropical region straddling the equator, plays a crucial role in determining AO predictability in decadal time scale. Low-pass filtered observational data (1979–2021) shows a significant correlation (r = 0.67; 0.58 post-Nino 3.4 removal, p < 0.01) between MC convection (NOAA OLR) and the AO index. Analyses reveal that enhanced MC convection induces a Gill-Matsuno type response up to 40°N, driving a northward shift of the subtropical jet and enhancing mid-latitude potential vorticity gradient. This creates conditions for increased stratospheric wave flux, weakening the polar vortex. Pacemaker Earth system model experiments confirm this tropical-extratropical interaction mechanism. These findings demonstrate tropical influence on Arctic climate and provide new insights for AO predictability. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6273805","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":437029183,"identity":"2f901682-c39b-406a-b485-744c6c28f965","order_by":0,"name":"Eun-Ji Song","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Pukyong National University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Eun-Ji","middleName":"","lastName":"Song","suffix":""},{"id":437029190,"identity":"f8ef9963-948a-4253-bd58-351ac63d07fb","order_by":1,"name":"Sinil Yang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Pukyong National 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