Warming in the land of the midnight sun: breeding birds may suffer greater heat stress at high- vs low-Arctic sites

Rising global temperatures are expected to increase reproductive costs for wildlife as greater thermoregulatory demands interfere with essential breeding activities such as parental care. However, predicting the temperature threshold where reproductive performance is negatively impacted remains a significant hurdle. Using a novel thermoregulatory polygon approach, we predicted the threshold temperature at which an Arctic songbird–the snow bunting ( Plectrophenax nivalis )–would need to reduce activity and perform below the 4-times basal metabolic rate (BMR) required to sustain nestling provisioning to avoid overheating. We then compared this threshold to operative temperatures recorded at high (82°N) and low (64°N) Arctic sites to estimate how heat constraints translate into site-specific impacts on sustained activity level. We predict buntings would become behaviourally constrained at operative temperatures above 11.7°C, whereupon they must reduce provisioning rates to maintain thermal balance. Low Arctic sites had larger fluctuations in solar radiation, producing consistent daily periods when operative temperatures exceeded 11.7°C. However, high-latitude birds faced entire, consecutive days where parents would not be able to sustain required provisioning rates. These data indicate that Arctic warming is likely already disrupting the breeding performance of cold-specialist birds, but also suggests counterintuitive and severe negative impacts of warming at high-latitude breeding locations.