Sustainable Adaptation Strategies Mitigate Climate Change Impacts in a Temperate Estuary

Sustainable Adaptation Strategies Mitigate Climate Change Impacts in a Temperate Estuary | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Sustainable Adaptation Strategies Mitigate Climate Change Impacts in a Temperate Estuary Johannes Pein, Joanna Staneva This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7432932/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Estuaries are among the most heavily utilised aquatic natural areas, where strong physical and biogeochemical gradients meet a high density of fauna and a high population. The demands placed on estuaries have led to ecological degradation in the past, evidencing profound use conflicts. This applies to many estuaries of the southern North Sea coast hosting large harbours often deep inland, such as the Elbe estuary with the metropolitan region and port of Hamburg about a hundred kilometres from the open sea. Climate change, particularly sea level rise, poses enormous ecological, economic, and social challenges for this region. It is, however, unclear how exactly the estuary system will be challenged by potentially sharply rising mean sea level and global temperatures by the end of the century. Here, we use a coupled physical-biogeochemical model to derive the main climate change impacts under a simplified extreme climate scenario. In this model-based assessment study, we consider the human impact on potential future trajectories of key estuarine state variables, taking into account several scenarios for a sustainable adaptation of the estuarine geometry by means of river engineering. Our results show that sustainable adaptation measures can mitigate some of the adverse effects of sea level rise, highlighting the importance of integrating climate change projections into estuarine management plans. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Biological sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Ocean sciences Sea level rise Climate change adaption estuarine management eutrophication estuarine circulation numerical modelling Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 23 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 27 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 09 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 03 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 Sep, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 08 Sep, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 08 Sep, 2025 Editor invited by journal 02 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 29 Aug, 2025 First submitted to journal 29 Aug, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7432932","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":515462397,"identity":"ff7f8c7a-2715-4145-b9ce-eb3c69b7532f","order_by":0,"name":"Johannes Pein","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABAUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBAC9gYeBOcAQ8UBKJMNtxZGVC1nSNXCwNhGjJb23oOfC3fY2DNINx88XDjvjpx5e/OxBwxlNri19JxLlp55Ji2xQeZYwuGZ254Zy5w5lm7AcC4Nt5YZOQbSvG2HExgkcgwO8247nDhDIsdMgrHtMD4txr952/7bM0jkfzjMO+dw/Qz5NyAt/3FqEZyRYwa05QBjg0QOw2HehsMJEhI8IC0HcGqR5jljZs3blpzYJnPM4DDPscOGM3jS0iQSziXj1MLH3mN8m7fNzp5fuvnxZ56aw/IS7IePSXwos8OpBQ7YJJB5CYQ1AIEEYSWjYBSMglEwQgEAd1tRPMQD7mEAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Johannes","middleName":"","lastName":"Pein","suffix":""},{"id":515462398,"identity":"e7991caf-6910-46dc-85af-33fee6cd0a6f","order_by":1,"name":"Joanna Staneva","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Joanna","middleName":"","lastName":"Staneva","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-22 09:23:25","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7432932/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7432932/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-43040-7","type":"published","date":"2026-03-21T15:57:33+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105569409,"identity":"db64c5b9-226e-47e8-8435-f1f3c25c6e64","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-27 13:12:23","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":807132,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SRAdaptationMitigateSLReffectsEstuary25082025.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7432932/v1_covered_42bf846a-f469-4553-ab77-bb044b3ef723.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Sustainable Adaptation Strategies Mitigate Climate Change Impacts in a Temperate Estuary","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Sea level rise, Climate change adaption, estuarine management, eutrophication, estuarine circulation, numerical modelling","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7432932/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7432932/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eEstuaries are among the most heavily utilised aquatic natural areas, where strong physical and biogeochemical gradients meet a high density of fauna and a high population. 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