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by qwen3.7-flash, 2026-09-11
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This study investigates how global warming drives extreme sex-ratio biases in loggerhead sea turtles by combining 15 years of field monitoring with drone-based surveys and eco-physiological modeling. The researchers found that rising incubation temperatures have created a deceptive population increase characterized by a 9:1 female-to-male breeding ratio, which masks the underlying threat of male scarcity to future reproduction. While current nest counts appear robust, the data indicate that this growth is unsustainable without sufficient males for fertilization. The paper does not explicitly discuss endometriosis or adenomyosis; it was included in the corpus via a keyword match in the upstream search index.
Abstract
Global warming threatens species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) by risking extreme offspring sex-ratio bias. In sea turtles, warmer incubation conditions produce more females. Such biases can transiently inflate apparent population growth before male scarcity undermines reproduction, possibly leading to population extinction. Here, we combine 15 years of field monitoring, drone-based sex-ratio surveys, Argos telemetry, and eco-physiological modelling to test whether rising temperatures underpin the rapid increase in loggerhead ( Caretta caretta ) nesting in Cabo Verde, one of the world’s largest populations. Historical air temperature, lagged by one generation, predicts current nest counts, consistent with a climate-driven, female-biased population. Drone surveys reveal an approximately 9:1 female-to-male breeding sex ratio across two consecutive breeding seasons, and simulations reproduce observed nesting trajectories under historical warming but not under null (no-warming) scenarios. Extending the analysis to 28 global loggerhead populations reveals consistent links between temperatures, latitude, and nesting trends. Our results identify warming-induced sex ratio bias as a key, yet deceptive, driver of apparent recovery, highlighting the need to reassess conservation success through the lens of demography of TSD species.
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Abstract
Global warming threatens species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) by risking extreme offspring sex-ratio bias. In sea turtles, warmer incubation conditions produce more females. Such biases can transiently inflate apparent population growth before male scarcity undermines reproduction, possibly leading to population extinction. Here, we combine 15 years of field monitoring, drone-based sex-ratio surveys, Argos telemetry, and eco-physiological modelling to test whether rising temperatures underpin the rapid increase in loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nesting in Cabo Verde, one of the world’s largest populations. Historical air temperature, lagged by one generation, predicts current nest counts, consistent with a climate-driven, female-biased population. Drone surveys reveal an approximately 9:1 female-to-male breeding sex ratio across two consecutive breeding seasons, and simulations reproduce observed nesting trajectories under historical warming but not under null (no-warming) scenarios. Extending the analysis to 28 global loggerhead populations reveals consistent links between temperatures, latitude, and nesting trends. Our results identify warming-induced sex ratio bias as a key, yet deceptive, driver of apparent recovery, highlighting the need to reassess conservation success through the lens of demography of TSD species.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
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