Urban compactness and carbon emissions: global evidence over the period 1975-2020

Urban compactness and carbon emissions: global evidence over the period 1975-2020 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Urban compactness and carbon emissions: global evidence over the period 1975-2020 Giorgio Musto, Marco Percoco This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6589850/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The share of population living in urban centres has vastly increased in recent decades, and is predicted to further expand in the future. In this context, research on the environmental impact of different urban environments, in terms of both the form and built-up structure of cities, is particularly important to understand whether smart urban design can help mitigate the nefarious impacts of climate change. This study aims at investigating relevant associations between urban form (and specifically, urban compactness) and carbon dioxide emissions of the residential and on-road transport sectors on a global scale over a long time period. By relying on a recently established, internationally comparable definition of “urban centre”, several GIS-based measures of urban form have been calculated for 11,435 cities over the period 1975–2020 and have been associated to city carbon emissions. The results show that lower levels of emissions of the residential and transport sectors occur in urban environments taking on more compact shapes especially in Africa and Asia, whereas the impact of urban compactness is found to be limited in Europe and North America. This heterogeneity suggests that the effect of urban containment policies may be substantial in developing countries and almost null in more developed areas. Social science/Geography Business and commerce/Economics Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files UrbanFormSupplement.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6589850","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":481668511,"identity":"82a7e896-226a-4e8e-9be0-12d3221baafa","order_by":0,"name":"Giorgio Musto","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Bocconi University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Giorgio","middleName":"","lastName":"Musto","suffix":""},{"id":481668513,"identity":"aa9e2420-29f5-4194-a11c-b0f2db6b8cb3","order_by":1,"name":"Marco Percoco","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA7ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYPCDCgYGNgkIk4eBmSgtZ1C0EKOHsQ1ISMC52LXotp99+OEDwx058/bDBz98nHc4j0+6+eCHHxV3ZBjY+Q9g02J2Jt1YcgbDM2OZM2nJkjO3HS5mkzmWLNlz5hlOh5kdSGNj5mE4nDhDgseMmXfb4cQ2iRwzZsa2w7i1nH8G1lIP0TKHGC03ILYkSIC1NBCl5Rmz5AyDZ4YzeIB+mXEsPbEN4pfDPGzMzAbYHZbG+OFDxR15CXZgiH2osU6cPxscYoft+fkPPsBqDRgYHMAiyIZbPQhg0zIKRsEoGAWjAAoAbmRVK+Kceg0AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Bocconi University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marco","middleName":"","lastName":"Percoco","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-04 18:53:15","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6589850/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6589850/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":98938566,"identity":"1aae2875-d757-4a4c-8194-942ddea90cc3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-24 10:39:51","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1112511,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"UrbanFormManuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6589850/v1_covered_91f245be-2ed3-4042-bb81-14e345d7c519.pdf"},{"id":86449426,"identity":"4e237788-24c5-4063-ab2f-97264423bc57","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-10 18:38:49","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":1399222,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"UrbanFormSupplement.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6589850/v1/08ba2678363f91dcd671c54f.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Urban compactness and carbon emissions: global evidence over the period 1975-2020","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6589850/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6589850/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe share of population living in urban centres has vastly increased in recent decades, and is predicted to further expand in the future. In this context, research on the environmental impact of different urban environments, in terms of both the form and built-up structure of cities, is particularly important to understand whether smart urban design can help mitigate the nefarious impacts of climate change. This study aims at investigating relevant associations between urban form (and specifically, urban compactness) and carbon dioxide emissions of the residential and on-road transport sectors on a global scale over a long time period. By relying on a recently established, internationally comparable definition of \u0026ldquo;urban centre\u0026rdquo;, several GIS-based measures of urban form have been calculated for 11,435 cities over the period 1975\u0026ndash;2020 and have been associated to city carbon emissions. 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