Impact of Twin Lockdowns on Hunger, Labor Market Outcomes, and Household Coping Mechanisms: Evidence from Uganda

We examine the short- and medium-run impacts of two of the strictest Covid-19 lockdowns in the developing world, employing longitudinal data from Uganda. Household fixed-effects estimations show significant, immediate increases in food insecurity after the first lockdown and a continued negative impact three months after its lifting. The second lockdown’s medium-term impact was even worse, likely because of a compounding effect of a concurrent drought. The rising food insecurity was partly the result of the lockdown-related reductions in the availability of paid work. Agricultural households were more likely to continue working and consequently saw smaller increases in food insecurity. Furthermore, the likelihood of engaging in agricultural work increased after the first lockdown, suggesting a switch to agriculture as a coping mechanism. The other coping mechanisms that households typically rely on for idiosyncratic shocks failed in the face of a worldwide shock, contributing to the sizeable increase in food insecurity.