Characterizing changes in cranberry phenology from 1958 to 2022: Implications for spring frost protection in Massachusetts, United States

Characterizing changes in cranberry phenology from 1958 to 2022: Implications for spring frost protection in Massachusetts, United States | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Characterizing changes in cranberry phenology from 1958 to 2022: Implications for spring frost protection in Massachusetts, United States Sandeep Bhatti, Peter Jeranyama, Casey D. Kennedy, Anthony R. Buda, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5278801/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Mar, 2025 Read the published version in International Journal of Biometeorology → Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Warmer temperatures associated with climate change have affected the phenology of most plants, but limited information exists for the American cranberry (Vaccinium macrocarpon Ait.). We examined long-term spatiotemporal trends in cranberry bud development during spring using detailed field observations of cranberry bud stages over a 65-yr period, spanning from 1958–2022. A growing degree day (GDD) model was further used to interpret the observed trends in bud development over the study period. To assess spatial variability in cranberry bud development, the GDDs were computed using gridded weather data for four counties of Massachusetts, representing 85% of the state’s cranberry acreage. A Theil-Sen linear regression model was implemented to determine trends in the occurrence of the cabbage head stage. We found significant temporal trends (p-value < 0.01) in the annual timing of white bud and cabbage head stages using the field observations, which were occurring 18 to 20 days earlier than was observed 65 years ago in the spring. GDDs accumulated at a faster rate in spring towards the end of the study period due to rising mean air temperature. Analysis of 65 years of gridded data revealed a significant trend (p-value < 0.01) of earlier phenological development across the four counties. The rate of advancement in cabbage head stage ranged from -0.15 to -0.25 d yr -1 across the study area. These findings highlight the need to update frost forecasting models that account for changes in growth schedule of cranberry. cranberry phenology spatial variability climate change air temperature growing degree day Full Text Supplementary Files Bhattietal2024IJBMSupplementalMaterial.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 21 Mar, 2025 Read the published version in International Journal of Biometeorology → Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Oct, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 25 Oct, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 21 Oct, 2024 First submitted to journal 16 Oct, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5278801","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":370571061,"identity":"486e5865-2054-4d9d-b8a8-9f8ef86d2288","order_by":0,"name":"Sandeep Bhatti","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sandeep","middleName":"","lastName":"Bhatti","suffix":""},{"id":370571062,"identity":"4ee12b2e-e168-447c-8965-d24449f0d554","order_by":1,"name":"Peter Jeranyama","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAw0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYNACHhsYi5kY5SBFPGkka2E4TIIWc/b+g48rZM4nrm0//vgDQ4V1YgMhLZY9h5kNz/DcTtx2JsdMguFMOmEtBjeS2SQbQFoO5LAxMLYdJkLL/cfsPxt4ziVuO//88QfGf8RoucHMxtjAcyBx240EAwnGBiK0WPYkGwMdlmy87cYbM4mEY+nGBLWYsx98+LGxx0522/n0xx8+1FjLEnYYiGDsgfISCCmHa2H4QYzSUTAKRsEoGLEAALCMQXGKiqazAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9619-9557","institution":"University of Massachusetts Amherst","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Peter","middleName":"","lastName":"Jeranyama","suffix":""},{"id":370571063,"identity":"8abb7c96-41c4-46d2-a16e-e86a84bbb0da","order_by":2,"name":"Casey D. 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