Disentangling the anthropogenic climate change influence on recent hydroclimate whiplash events via multiple nudged model simulations

Disentangling the anthropogenic climate change influence on recent hydroclimate whiplash events via multiple nudged model simulations | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Disentangling the anthropogenic climate change influence on recent hydroclimate whiplash events via multiple nudged model simulations Niklas Merz, Jakob Zscheischler, István Dunkl, Sebastian Sippel, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9473769/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 8 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Hydroclimate whiplash describes swings between extremely dry and wet conditions. The magnitude and physical drivers of changes in observed whiplash events under global warming remain poorly understood. Here we quantify changes in whiplash intensity for nine high-impact events using the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and a unique multi-model ensemble of wind-nudged storyline simulations. Anthropogenic climate change accounts for 9% of the observed whiplash intensity on average across events, with positive contributions for nearly all events according to the multi-model mean (range: -2 to 72%), and model agreement on the positive contribution for about two-thirds of the events. This climate change contribution is predominantly driven by a non-linear increase in potential evapotranspiration, which strengthens drying more during the dry than the wet phase. Model uncertainty on the magnitude of the climate change contribution is substantial, with an inter-model spread of 13% on average across the events. These results highlight a climate change imprint on observed whiplash events and the need for multiple nudged datasets to robustly attribute complex events. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementaryMaterial.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 14 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 May, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 28 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 22 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 22 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 20 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9473769","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":631545429,"identity":"c20b2466-e372-402b-b217-ef1b8223d04d","order_by":0,"name":"Niklas Merz","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA3UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZjbGA1Am4wMGGyB1ALdimBa4GmYDhjRitDAgtLBJEKXFnJ0t4cCPPwzR/NLHn1XzJNQx8B1vwK/FspntwMHeNobcmX0Jabd5EtgYJM8QsMbgMHvDAd4GhtwNZxiO3eb9wcNgcCOBsJaDf/4w5O4/w9hWzJMgwWBw/wEhLWwHDvOwAW3hYWZj5kkwANqCXwdIS8Jh2TaJ3Bln2Jgl5yQk8EieIeSw88cMH775Y5Pb38P+8MObhDo5vuMHCFgDARJwFg9R6kfBKBgFo2AU4AcAUjFC9l5OxcQAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - 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