Underestimated Risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Himalayas

Underestimated Risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Himalayas | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Underestimated Risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Himalayas Fang Chen, Weigui Guan, Meimei Zhang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6372593/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the Himalayas have caused severe consequences for downstream communities, including loss of life and substantial economic damage. The accelerated global atmospheric warming further heightens the GLOF risks. However, a gap in uncertainties underlying hazard and vulnerability constrains the accurate cognition of potential threats. Here we developed a glacial lake inventory and systematically assessed the hazard, exposure, vulnerability and comprehensive risks of all glacial lakes in ten hotspot sub-basins of the Himalayas using a DEM-based stochastic framework, numerical model and social census dataset. From 2015 to 2020, lake areas expanded by 6.52 ± 1.07 km² (0.8% annually). 38% of lakes pose high hazard, impacting 51% of the population and 76% of infrastructure. Northeastern Bhutan exhibits higher vulnerability than India, Nepal and Tibet, yet remains underexplored. The Kuri Chu and Dangme Chu sub-basins are particularly high-risk areas, with 10% of high-risk lakes previously underestimated. This work contributes to developing an effective risk assessment criteria, underscoring the need for systematic study of other glacierized regions. Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Supplementaryfile.docx Supplementary info Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6372593","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":440176703,"identity":"8926cbc5-a2e9-489e-9feb-b7569a6d1bdd","order_by":0,"name":"Fang Chen","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA2klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCSCuAGJ+EDuBaC1ngFiygWQtBgcgbMKAf3bzsQcHau7Ybb59+OGNBwx28gzsZw/gt+TOsXSDA8eeJW87l2ZskcCQbNjAk4fffQYSOWbSH9gOJ5udYTAD+oU5gUGCx4CAlvxvEgf+HU427mH/BtRST4yWHDaJg22H7Qx4eEC2HCasReJGmpnEwb7DCRJneIotEgyOG7bx5ODXwj8j+ZnEgW+H7fl72Dfe/FFRLc/Pfga/FhhIbIC4k4GBjSj1QGBPrMJRMApGwSgYgQAAATpBpKn489YAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4410-7040","institution":"International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fang","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""},{"id":440176704,"identity":"4ae9fe4a-b9cb-423e-8b20-aa748e0f53bc","order_by":1,"name":"Weigui Guan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Chinese Academy of Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Weigui","middleName":"","lastName":"Guan","suffix":""},{"id":440176705,"identity":"8c5e17b0-0e0e-4e00-afbf-16cbdebb299c","order_by":2,"name":"Meimei Zhang","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9621-4879","institution":"Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Meimei","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-04 01:35:12","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6372593/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6372593/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":84825263,"identity":"5c874710-0cec-4def-adaa-c022a7a24599","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-17 16:58:22","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1085908,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Article.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6372593/v1_covered_a54d9f35-c61b-49da-8009-e0bdee5df192.pdf"},{"id":80195357,"identity":"b80fe858-a831-45b1-9888-b1d08ed4f75a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-09 05:36:32","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":15411329,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary info","description":"","filename":"Supplementaryfile.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6372593/v1/8ae8ff0dd1dcfbaf71862f7f.docx"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Underestimated Risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Himalayas","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6372593/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6372593/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eGlacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the Himalayas have caused severe consequences for downstream communities, including loss of life and substantial economic damage. The accelerated global atmospheric warming further heightens the GLOF risks. However, a gap in uncertainties underlying hazard and vulnerability constrains the accurate cognition of potential threats. Here we developed a glacial lake inventory and systematically assessed the hazard, exposure, vulnerability and comprehensive risks of all glacial lakes in ten hotspot sub-basins of the Himalayas using a DEM-based stochastic framework, numerical model and social census dataset. From 2015 to 2020, lake areas expanded by 6.52\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;1.07 km\u0026sup2; (0.8% annually). 38% of lakes pose high hazard, impacting 51% of the population and 76% of infrastructure. Northeastern Bhutan exhibits higher vulnerability than India, Nepal and Tibet, yet remains underexplored. The Kuri Chu and Dangme Chu sub-basins are particularly high-risk areas, with 10% of high-risk lakes previously underestimated. This work contributes to developing an effective risk assessment criteria, underscoring the need for systematic study of other glacierized regions.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Underestimated Risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Himalayas","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-04-09 05:27:52","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6372593/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"4fd078fd-0a2f-47c5-bd64-0dad779c67ef","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 9th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":46861927,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards"},{"id":46861928,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-06-17T16:50:14+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-04-09 05:27:52","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6372593","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6372593","identity":"rs-6372593","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}