Biofuels in Transition: Integrating Prospective LCA and Energy System Optimization Modeling

Biofuels in Transition: Integrating Prospective LCA and Energy System Optimization Modeling | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Biofuels in Transition: Integrating Prospective LCA and Energy System Optimization Modeling Anne van d, Nicolas Ghuys, Dominik Huber, Daniele Costa, Gauthier Limpens, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9423599/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study explores the role of two lignocellulosic pathways, REDIFUEL and lignocellulose-to-naphtha, within the Belgian energy transition by integrating prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) with an energy system optimization model. The results show that system performance is primarily driven by resource imports rather than individual technology choices. Advanced biofuels may contribute cost-effectively to the energy transition by 2030, whereas biobased chemicals only become significant by 2050. However, their deployment increases reliance on wood and renewable hydrogen, leading to higher environmental impacts in several impact categories and a decline in the energy return on investment (EROI). More broadly, scenarios relying on imported renewable hydrogen are associated with increased upstream impacts, particularly for water depletion and land use, and lower EROI at the point of use. These results highlight a shift from local emission reductions to upstream, resource-related impacts occurring largely outside Belgium. Overall, the findings highlight that system-level assessments can yield different conclusions from product-level studies and are essential for capturing resource competition, cross-sector interactions, and burden-shifting effects. Prospective Life Cycle Assessment Energy System Optimization Model Energy Transition Biofuels Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9423599","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":623437162,"identity":"ea9758b8-1dd1-49ad-9bad-1d0892b3015f","order_by":0,"name":"Anne van 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