Completing the SME Carbon Profile: Scalable Prediction of Scope 3 Emissions

Completing the SME Carbon Profile: Scalable Prediction of Scope 3 Emissions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Completing the SME Carbon Profile: Scalable Prediction of Scope 3 Emissions Alec Phillpotts, Anne Owen, Jonathan Norman, Anna Trendl, John Gathergood, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8241893/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 3 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Despite growing recognition of significance, a business’s Scope 3 emissions remain rarely measured and as a result are poorly understood. This situation is particularly common amongst small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which face additional obstacles to emission measurement. With this paper, we present a transaction-based approach to facilitate SME Scope 3 engagement. Using financial transaction data for 150,000 + UK SMEs, we produce spend-based Scope 3 estimates across key Greenhouse Gas Protocol categories. We then fit a series of hierarchical regression models to both quantify and identify firm-level Scope 3 emissions, with minimal user inputs. We find that this approach is effective in predicting the upstream emissions of both purchased goods & services (RSQ = 0.87) and fuel and energy-related activities (RSQ = 0.89 and 0.72), whilst weaker for more targeted categories such as business travel. We also find a small number of recurrent industry hotspots tend to account for 75% of a firm’s upstream emissions. By leveraging objective, standardised data to estimate emissions, this method provides a low-input alternative to costly micro-studies for generating Scope 3 insights, extending the visibility of emissions beyond a firm’s direct operations, revealing emission hotspots and supporting the development of value chain decarbonisation strategies. Industrial Ecology Scope 3 Emission Modelling Embodied Emissions Financial Transaction Data Full Text Additional Declarations Competing interest reported. Alec Phillpotts reports financial support was provided by Lloyds Banking Group. Jonathan Norman’s time was funded by the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Council, as part of the Energy Demand Research Centre, grant reference number EP/Y010078/1. Supplementary Files SupportingInformationS3.docx SupportingInformationS4.docx SupportingInformationS6.docx SupportingInformationS7.xlsx SupportingInformationS2.xlsx SupportingInformationS1.docx SupportingInformationS5.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editor assigned by journal 03 Dec, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 03 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 30 Nov, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8241893","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":554528730,"identity":"e66e400c-83d5-4fc6-b790-73956556ace8","order_by":0,"name":"Alec Phillpotts","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA3UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFAC5gMHGBhsZIAsA4gAD0EtbIlALWk8pGjhMQZqOUyCFn72BoMDP3ec5+Fnb978gaHGjsHgzAH8WiR7DiQc7D1zm0ey51iZBMOxZAaDsw34tRjcSDhwgLftNo/BjRwzoMcOMBicJ+Aw+/sPGw7+bTvHY3//jfEHhn9EaDGQYGY4zNt2gMdAAogY2w4QdpjEmTSGw7JnknmAjDKJxL5kHklC3udvP//549sddnL87Yc3f/jwzU6O70wCAZeBACPMKQnERCSqllEwCkbBKBgF2AAAcM9GtVl/Ri4AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"University of Leeds","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alec","middleName":"","lastName":"Phillpotts","suffix":""},{"id":554528731,"identity":"9cabee2f-195e-4dcb-8ea8-64a3f9b1bd68","order_by":1,"name":"Anne Owen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Leeds","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anne","middleName":"","lastName":"Owen","suffix":""},{"id":554528732,"identity":"0e8249eb-c66c-458b-b0f4-6cc31460d3ab","order_by":2,"name":"Jonathan Norman","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Leeds","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jonathan","middleName":"","lastName":"Norman","suffix":""},{"id":554528733,"identity":"39e26f96-524d-4e46-a3ac-5c756f83daf4","order_by":3,"name":"Anna Trendl","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Lloyds Banking Group","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Anna","middleName":"","lastName":"Trendl","suffix":""},{"id":554528734,"identity":"4b5e8ec6-475e-424d-934b-965f90b62905","order_by":4,"name":"John Gathergood","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Nottingham","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"John","middleName":"","lastName":"Gathergood","suffix":""},{"id":554528735,"identity":"d672a629-0d10-4147-89d1-67a784b504e6","order_by":5,"name":"Norbert Jobst","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Lloyds Banking Group (United Kingdom)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Norbert","middleName":"","lastName":"Jobst","suffix":""},{"id":554528736,"identity":"06689c1b-180b-4f09-a462-7edcaad9802e","order_by":6,"name":"David Leake","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Lloyds Banking Group","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"David","middleName":"","lastName":"Leake","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-11-30 12:23:11","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8241893/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8241893/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":97419950,"identity":"68139a20-3b54-41c0-bdbe-1b4a917474e0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:48","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":324143,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Scp3Manuscript.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/1b2ea8f037c6879a2611fcb1.docx"},{"id":97419949,"identity":"685be010-9e9e-44c5-bfc2-81e8a1dd86ee","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:48","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":40720,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Figure1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/9fc4d271aab62c4553d59996.png"},{"id":97667363,"identity":"0a7a6409-b675-4edc-bb8b-04320a3a99b1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:23:18","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":54248,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Figure2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/8988daca9c48de5bf4efd6aa.png"},{"id":97419957,"identity":"b0500aa2-2f93-4d74-9f5d-5c9d19b16669","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:48","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":138923,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Figure3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/513a994b0cd9ea9389e63c04.png"},{"id":97419951,"identity":"cd59f078-52b5-4e48-a134-84a9f3761514","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:48","extension":"json","order_by":4,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":9428,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"0c3826c13a4b44b28b9fae9ca2867f33.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/c96fc6f4ab8eb5278954be47.json"},{"id":97665941,"identity":"da4c1cf0-a7dd-4f65-8543-5d24839a1921","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:20:08","extension":"docx","order_by":5,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":204358,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupportingInformationS1.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/a00c6d4f7d9856f7f41d17dd.docx"},{"id":97666739,"identity":"5cf9f92f-5ea9-40ce-981a-37b002104b50","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:22:02","extension":"xlsx","order_by":6,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":269500,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupportingInformationS2.xlsx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/cb82a139c8f34b8d305ba5e7.xlsx"},{"id":97666581,"identity":"73f7257b-12b7-44d9-a4fc-1fa307b3390d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:21:37","extension":"docx","order_by":7,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":189031,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupportingInformationS3.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/b7a5b967183cfbff71f3439c.docx"},{"id":97419963,"identity":"d6085ef3-7f65-4f49-9f71-0d5e532239df","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:48","extension":"docx","order_by":8,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":23300,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupportingInformationS4.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/53f8be5d1768e1482bd8ccfb.docx"},{"id":97419972,"identity":"78edfde3-315e-4def-bb8c-927b6dd06b01","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:48","extension":"xlsx","order_by":9,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":366747,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupportingInformationS5.xlsx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/e5cb320755c9e84b2d5502dc.xlsx"},{"id":97666516,"identity":"1043fda7-0a57-4d7f-a79b-6b101ce0d3f8","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:21:25","extension":"docx","order_by":10,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":93142,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupportingInformationS6.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/b55579600af567c1b4b5ea2f.docx"},{"id":97419978,"identity":"c2492931-5fbf-44d1-95cb-68da867feeca","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:48","extension":"xlsx","order_by":11,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":117026,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupportingInformationS7.xlsx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/4d587cf250485050dda92a9e.xlsx"},{"id":97419959,"identity":"7b11d3ba-45a3-45ac-980c-8fdb01ffec2a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:48","extension":"xml","order_by":12,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":186361,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"0c3826c13a4b44b28b9fae9ca2867f331enriched.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/cc48b30f6e4be3911b1ddc78.xml"},{"id":97668204,"identity":"dbb07fe0-cb06-4dfe-8d16-d69aefdc1771","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:25:02","extension":"png","order_by":13,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":40720,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Figure1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/1ea55261d329938d7218ca57.png"},{"id":97419967,"identity":"afbe8647-c6e8-4446-9fc5-5c3b83174842","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:48","extension":"png","order_by":14,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":54248,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Figure2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/dfdcdaa1f0cb18f3f1fa2ac0.png"},{"id":97666129,"identity":"ada4f250-4c01-4062-b436-1422546a6d88","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:20:29","extension":"png","order_by":15,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":138923,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Figure3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/82ef645e17b41b0956d7b0e4.png"},{"id":97419953,"identity":"6bf1bdb8-80e0-41c6-99a0-79fb9aa0f937","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:48","extension":"png","order_by":17,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":40720,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Figure1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/f9d6a2e88fb17aa393e014c4.png"},{"id":97419976,"identity":"336ffbe5-8f92-4c97-af0b-2ba7d1e9d107","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:48","extension":"png","order_by":18,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":54248,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Figure2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/02f2d7455b5cdd34a2362013.png"},{"id":97666600,"identity":"553bb6bd-984b-4a10-b284-0b7fe72b0748","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:21:38","extension":"png","order_by":19,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":138923,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Figure3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/3f1148c93a8c1f2e8925ec37.png"},{"id":97419981,"identity":"69f9dedb-88e3-4dcc-b994-e5a63fb1092d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:48","extension":"jpeg","order_by":20,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":924739,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage4.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/98f68089bdd26ac08f14cba7.jpeg"},{"id":97665781,"identity":"bb43f50c-6b0e-4321-9936-fdddd5787e40","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:19:37","extension":"jpeg","order_by":21,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1074,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage5.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/05a7e8ed0986296f47881323.jpeg"},{"id":97419973,"identity":"1a0a9c4a-a51f-4448-846d-a4754413913c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:48","extension":"png","order_by":22,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":11704,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"OnlineFigure1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/98bac766c6efc9e5b28617c7.png"},{"id":97668002,"identity":"2494b196-f955-42bb-9b64-2f5863a39146","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:24:38","extension":"png","order_by":23,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":20192,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"OnlineFigure2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/ee578910f6328cd4c702503b.png"},{"id":97667190,"identity":"9db183de-8e1c-4794-bc6d-317e830d1d9b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:22:59","extension":"png","order_by":24,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":31183,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"OnlineFigure3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/c54dda5ecd81d7adca2c8f29.png"},{"id":97419980,"identity":"cab33085-17db-4fd1-84ee-d95feed18616","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:48","extension":"png","order_by":25,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":11704,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/426a224f60771998c7f4d7f0.png"},{"id":97419985,"identity":"464d2129-7536-46d9-987c-2ae15b84694e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:49","extension":"png","order_by":26,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":20192,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/0d43769f9ec5f7c23f49cced.png"},{"id":97419982,"identity":"27d22c5e-cf0c-4f73-8d3d-36de70f6aa90","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:49","extension":"png","order_by":27,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":31183,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/1931d500ae17baae69bf3e03.png"},{"id":97419986,"identity":"a60b46db-6d8d-4aaa-838a-0f9a44405a08","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:49","extension":"png","order_by":28,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":165055,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/fc6c683b1f9573e5d385d3ec.png"},{"id":97667391,"identity":"eebd6c96-8ce0-4868-86df-0bf06f05c2d3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:23:22","extension":"png","order_by":29,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":935,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/615969a4a28d5becab13799c.png"},{"id":97419987,"identity":"16dd661f-af31-42e0-b2cf-14f1b212a281","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:49","extension":"xml","order_by":30,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":183166,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"0c3826c13a4b44b28b9fae9ca2867f331structuring.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/6a9968124e2d810b6430524f.xml"},{"id":97419984,"identity":"0d59b252-940e-47db-94f1-79e148c358a3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:49","extension":"html","order_by":31,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":197788,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"earlyproof.html","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/9792bc4c51af923d4341aa15.html"},{"id":97893235,"identity":"bd1bb96b-32b8-4fed-97f2-a0817c3231d0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-10 15:29:05","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":684312,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Scp3Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1_covered_b5e57c75-1f6f-43b3-9174-95d1c3327816.pdf"},{"id":97419958,"identity":"35a6948b-f530-4212-9f9c-cc0704a663ab","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:48","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":189031,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupportingInformationS3.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/0381c6e71ec8309d6ba6d416.docx"},{"id":97667335,"identity":"196b9ec2-fd65-421e-b98e-17a838801eb9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:23:15","extension":"docx","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":23300,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupportingInformationS4.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/c9c6c1815354b62f562a2e76.docx"},{"id":97667339,"identity":"3de8e774-06a5-4444-9d1c-a06eedc34769","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:23:16","extension":"docx","order_by":3,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":93142,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupportingInformationS6.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/49504315a4c78e55be391a5c.docx"},{"id":97666226,"identity":"f2ebc13e-ee14-4925-825f-1bb0c9116eba","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:20:41","extension":"xlsx","order_by":4,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":117026,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupportingInformationS7.xlsx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/f5ff6d893b51559c80a831b6.xlsx"},{"id":97668162,"identity":"9acbb0a3-73a4-45a7-a4ce-8220b6000dde","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:24:53","extension":"xlsx","order_by":5,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":269500,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupportingInformationS2.xlsx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/31c59355914186303e83e210.xlsx"},{"id":97666371,"identity":"1bc74799-77d1-46d2-afa7-0a8a3dd507e9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:21:04","extension":"docx","order_by":6,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":204358,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupportingInformationS1.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/b09ab94ccc12bcb74e4c0218.docx"},{"id":97419961,"identity":"e25b167f-a1b7-42d1-92ed-a3acb6eb9678","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-04 08:22:48","extension":"xlsx","order_by":7,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":366747,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupportingInformationS5.xlsx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8241893/v1/ffe01b666233d0131fbe8f01.xlsx"}],"financialInterests":"Competing interest reported. Alec Phillpotts reports financial support was provided by Lloyds Banking Group. Jonathan Norman’s time was funded by the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Council, as part of the Energy Demand Research Centre, grant reference number EP/Y010078/1.","formattedTitle":"Completing the SME Carbon Profile: Scalable Prediction of Scope 3 Emissions","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"journal-of-industrial-ecology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"44498","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/44498/3","title":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Industrial Ecology, Scope 3, Emission Modelling, Embodied Emissions, Financial Transaction Data","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8241893/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8241893/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eDespite growing recognition of significance, a business\u0026rsquo;s Scope 3 emissions remain rarely measured and as a result are poorly understood. This situation is particularly common amongst small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which face additional obstacles to emission measurement. With this paper, we present a transaction-based approach to facilitate SME Scope 3 engagement. Using financial transaction data for 150,000\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;UK SMEs, we produce spend-based Scope 3 estimates across key Greenhouse Gas Protocol categories. We then fit a series of hierarchical regression models to both quantify and identify firm-level Scope 3 emissions, with minimal user inputs. We find that this approach is effective in predicting the upstream emissions of both purchased goods \u0026amp; services (RSQ\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.87) and fuel and energy-related activities (RSQ\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.89 and 0.72), whilst weaker for more targeted categories such as business travel. We also find a small number of recurrent industry hotspots tend to account for 75% of a firm\u0026rsquo;s upstream emissions. By leveraging objective, standardised data to estimate emissions, this method provides a low-input alternative to costly micro-studies for generating Scope 3 insights, extending the visibility of emissions beyond a firm\u0026rsquo;s direct operations, revealing emission hotspots and supporting the development of value chain decarbonisation strategies.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Completing the SME Carbon Profile: Scalable Prediction of Scope 3 Emissions","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-04 08:22:43","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8241893/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-12-03T08:27:05+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-12-03T08:25:53+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","date":"2025-11-30T12:07:31+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"journal-of-industrial-ecology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"44498","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/44498/3","title":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"4deec471-37f8-4431-941f-1f6a3a111ba5","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 4th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-05T22:53:31+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-04 08:22:43","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8241893","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8241893","identity":"rs-8241893","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}