Geographic Disparity in Son Preference among Indian Women: A Spatially Explicit District-Level Analysis

Geographic Disparity in Son Preference among Indian Women: A Spatially Explicit District-Level Analysis | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Geographic Disparity in Son Preference among Indian Women: A Spatially Explicit District-Level Analysis Soumen Barik, Dewaram A. Nagdeve, Anuj Singh, Mayank Singh This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8742691/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 21 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Son preference remains a key driver of gender inequality in India, yet most studies treat its determinants as uniform across space, obscuring critical subnational variation. Addressing this gap, this study investigates the geographic heterogeneity of son preference and examines how its predictors vary spatially. Data methods: Using district-level data on 713,312 currently married women aged 15–49 from the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019–21), we applied a spatially explicit analytical framework including choropleth mapping, hotspot analysis, kriging interpolation, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) to capture geographic heterogeneity and identify localized patterns beyond national averages. Results Nationally, 15.23% of women express son preference, but prevalence clusters sharply: 30–50% in high-burden districts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Rajasthan, and Haryana, versus below 10% across much of southern and western India. Using choropleth mapping, hotspot analysis, kriging, and GWR shows strong spatial non-stationarity in key predictors, including education, early marriage, parity, media exposure, wealth, caste, religion, and residence. Notably, secondary education significantly reduces son preference (β ≈ −0.72) only in high-patriarchy northern and central districts. Childlessness shows a consistent protective association, strongest in northern hotspots (β = −1.73 to − 1.20). Conclusion Son preference is a spatially embedded social process, shaped by localized patriarchy, economy, and institutions. Geographically targeted, gender-transformative policies such as conditional incentives for girls’ schooling and localized media campaigns effectively address the structural devaluation of daughters. Son preference Spatial analysis GWR Patriarchy India NFHS-5 Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Appendix.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 05 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 03 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 27 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 24 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 22 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 20 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Feb, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 19 Feb, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 02 Feb, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 02 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 30 Jan, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8742691","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":595165084,"identity":"b1ddc34e-66de-4b01-a7e0-b59a8f9082ab","order_by":0,"name":"Soumen Barik","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Soumen","middleName":"","lastName":"Barik","suffix":""},{"id":595165085,"identity":"6b4e5ef6-b2cf-44a0-8d8f-09e145003098","order_by":1,"name":"Dewaram A. 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Addressing this gap, this study investigates the geographic heterogeneity of son preference and examines how its predictors vary spatially.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eData methods:\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsing district-level data on 713,312 currently married women aged 15\u0026ndash;49 from the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019\u0026ndash;21), we applied a spatially explicit analytical framework including choropleth mapping, hotspot analysis, kriging interpolation, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) to capture geographic heterogeneity and identify localized patterns beyond national averages.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eNationally, 15.23% of women express son preference, but prevalence clusters sharply: 30\u0026ndash;50% in high-burden districts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Rajasthan, and Haryana, versus below 10% across much of southern and western India. Using choropleth mapping, hotspot analysis, kriging, and GWR shows strong spatial non-stationarity in key predictors, including education, early marriage, parity, media exposure, wealth, caste, religion, and residence. Notably, secondary education significantly reduces son preference (β \u0026asymp; \u0026minus;0.72) only in high-patriarchy northern and central districts. Childlessness shows a consistent protective association, strongest in northern hotspots (β = \u0026minus;1.73 to \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;1.20).\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusion\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eSon preference is a spatially embedded social process, shaped by localized patriarchy, economy, and institutions. Geographically targeted, gender-transformative policies such as conditional incentives for girls\u0026rsquo; schooling and localized media campaigns effectively address the structural devaluation of daughters.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Geographic Disparity in Son Preference among Indian Women: A Spatially Explicit District-Level Analysis","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-24 07:00:13","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8742691/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-03-05T21:52:18+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-03-03T10:48:43+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-27T18:28:18+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"205852547619087174113566519157685928986","date":"2026-02-27T17:54:22+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-24T17:17:22+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"155672070625963357860101111278101885790","date":"2026-02-24T16:41:50+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-22T15:35:08+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"16498783182524267557849242198533148487","date":"2026-02-21T19:42:23+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"101101637344424540570268902512101537345","date":"2026-02-21T18:40:31+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"202898010971147284443483588587128487592","date":"2026-02-21T16:47:27+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"200219066608412819374957299083786684044","date":"2026-02-21T16:33:45+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-20T09:24:01+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"39647787941075884144847349414512026557","date":"2026-02-20T09:01:55+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"337675697409801048336611235630345802717","date":"2026-02-20T05:23:02+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"26082747669800515543283322647963441284","date":"2026-02-20T01:40:34+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"164296634839926117834200046757081243775","date":"2026-02-19T17:34:15+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"211481072426167080851314094461143118853","date":"2026-02-19T17:31:38+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-02-19T16:29:34+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-02-02T09:12:26+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-02-02T09:06:29+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"International Journal of Health Geographics","date":"2026-01-30T15:02:24+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"international-journal-of-health-geographics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"ijhg","sideBox":"Learn more about [International Journal of Health Geographics](http://ij-healthgeographics.biomedcentral.com/)","snPcode":"12942","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/12942/3","title":"International Journal of Health Geographics","twitterHandle":"@IJHGeo","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"10637e02-97e9-4683-a362-ee74384df2a6","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 24th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-12T15:14:52+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-02-24 07:00:13","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8742691","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8742691","identity":"rs-8742691","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}