Not just a matter of space: Integrating ecological niche modeling with genotype-environment associations reveals high maladaptation risks under climate change for a microendemic Malagasy frog

Not just a matter of space: Integrating ecological niche modeling with genotype-environment associations reveals high maladaptation risks under climate change for a microendemic Malagasy frog | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 20 March 2026 V3 Latest version Share on Not just a matter of space: Integrating ecological niche modeling with genotype-environment associations reveals high maladaptation risks under climate change for a microendemic Malagasy frog Authors : Francesco Belluardo 0000-0002-3967-2686 , Mirko Di Febbraro [email protected] , Javier Lobón-Rovira , Ivo Oliveira Alves , Malalatiana Rasoazanany , Franco Andreone , Gonçalo M. Rosa , … Show All … , Simone Giovacchini , Enrico Mirone , Sandra Afonso , Pushpinder Singh Jamwal , Michele Innangi , Gabriella Sferra , Emiliano Trucchi , Alessandro Mondanaro , Francesco Carotenuto , Anna Loy , and Angelica Crottini Show Fewer Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176410924.44205155/v3 318 views 227 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Climate change is impacting biodiversity worldwide at an accelerating pace. Traditionally, Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have been widely used to infer the likely impacts of climate change on species, while accounting for their potential dispersal toward climatically suitable habitats. More recently, Genotype-environment association (GEA) approaches applied to genomic data have opened the possibility to investigate local adaptation underlying species genetic adaptive capacity, allowing quantification of maladaptation risk under future climatic conditions. In this study, we integrate ENMs with GEAs to assess climate change impacts on Mantidactylus bourgati, a frog microendemic to the Andringitra Massif in southeastern Madagascar. ENMs forecasted a progressive decline in climatically suitable habitat that, depending on the climate change scenario, could lead to either complete extinction or a highly shrunk and disjunct future distribution. GEA analyses revealed spatially structured local adaptation, with three distinct adaptive units associated with the wide environmental gradients characterizing the Andringitra Massif region. Genetic offset calculations indicated that even if M. bourgati may succeed in tracking suitable habitats through dispersal, the future genetic change required to maintain the same adaptation to current climatic conditions will be significant, implying a high risk of maladaptation. Moreover, most future refugial habitats are projected to fall outside Madagascar's network of protected areas. These findings emphasize the importance of integrating species genetic adaptive capacity into conservation strategies and spatial planning to help mitigate future climate change impacts on biodiversity. Supplementary Material File (m_bourgati_maladaptation_manuscript01_preprint01.pdf) Download 1.79 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 25 November 2025 V2 Version 2 16 March 2026 V3 Version 3 20 March 2026 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords ddrad genetic offset habitat suitability local adaptation madagascar protected areas Authors Affiliations Francesco Belluardo 0000-0002-3967-2686 Department of Biosciences and Territory, EnviXLab, University of Molise, Contrada Fonte Lappone s.n.c Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, CIBIO, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Universidade do Porto BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO View all articles by this author Mirko Di Febbraro [email protected] Department of Biosciences and Territory, EnviXLab, University of Molise, Contrada Fonte Lappone s.n.c View all articles by this author Javier Lobón-Rovira Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, CIBIO, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Universidade do Porto BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO View all articles by this author Ivo Oliveira Alves Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, CIBIO, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Universidade do Porto BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO Departamento de Biologia Animal, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa View all articles by this author Malalatiana Rasoazanany Mention Zoologie et Biodiversité Animale, Domaine Sciences et Technologies, Université d'Antananarivo View all articles by this author Franco Andreone Museo Regionale di Scienze Naturali View all articles by this author Gonçalo M. Rosa Principality of Asturias), IMIB Biodiversity Research Institute (CSIC, Universidad de Oviedo Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London Faculdade de Ciências, Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (CE3C), Universidade de Lisboa View all articles by this author Simone Giovacchini Department of Biosciences and Territory, EnviXLab, University of Molise, Contrada Fonte Lappone s.n.c View all articles by this author Enrico Mirone Department of Biosciences and Territory, EnviXLab, University of Molise, Contrada Fonte Lappone s.n.c View all articles by this author Sandra Afonso Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, CIBIO, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Universidade do Porto BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO View all articles by this author Pushpinder Singh Jamwal Department of Biosciences and Territory, EnviXLab, University of Molise, Contrada Fonte Lappone s.n.c View all articles by this author Michele Innangi Department of Biosciences and Territory, EnviXLab, University of Molise, Contrada Fonte Lappone s.n.c View all articles by this author Gabriella Sferra Department of Biosciences and Territory, EnviXLab, University of Molise, Contrada Fonte Lappone s.n.c View all articles by this author Emiliano Trucchi Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, Marche Polytechnic University View all articles by this author Alessandro Mondanaro Department of Earth, Environment and Resource Sciences, University of Naples Federico II View all articles by this author Francesco Carotenuto Department of Earth, Environment and Resource Sciences, University of Naples Federico II View all articles by this author Anna Loy Department of Biosciences and Territory, EnviXLab, University of Molise, Contrada Fonte Lappone s.n.c View all articles by this author Angelica Crottini Department of Biology, University of Florence View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 318 views 227 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Francesco Belluardo, Mirko Di Febbraro, Javier Lobón-Rovira, et al. Not just a matter of space: Integrating ecological niche modeling with genotype-environment associations reveals high maladaptation risks under climate change for a microendemic Malagasy frog. Authorea . 20 March 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176410924.44205155/v3 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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