Quantifying the effect of European Investment Bank financing on the low-carbon energy transition through 2050

Quantifying the effect of European Investment Bank financing on the low-carbon energy transition through 2050 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Quantifying the effect of European Investment Bank financing on the low-carbon energy transition through 2050 Giovanni Sansavini, Jacob Mannhardt, Paul Waidelich, Lukas Schmidt-Engelbertz, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8896067/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Transforming energy systems towards net-zero emissions requires substantial investments. Public loans from state investment banks and multilateral banks like the European Investment Bank (EIB) are seen as key for lowering investment barriers. Yet the impact of the EIB's energy lending on future technology deployment is unclear. Here, we employ a sector-coupled energy transition pathway model to quantify EIB lending effects, considering two channels: derisking investments in higher-risk countries and accelerating the deployment of emerging technologies. Starting from heterogeneous country risks and the current EIB energy lending budget, we find that a trade-off exists in allocating the lending capacity: prioritizing emerging technologies, such as direct air capture and electrolysis, enables smoother emission reductions, but concentrates investment in Northern Europe, whereas derisking mature technologies primarily benefits Southern Europe. Our findings highlight the EIB's role in accelerating technology deployment and suggest that increasing its energy lending budget can support the net-zero transition. Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy policy Social science/Finance Derisking Energy finance European investment bank Energy system optimization Transition pathway Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryinformationEIBfinancingMannhardtetal.pdf Supplementary Information - Quantifying the effect of European Investment Bank financing on the low-carbon energy transition through 2050 Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8896067","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":601132498,"identity":"b00e36fc-4d95-458d-b20a-81810b137af5","order_by":0,"name":"Giovanni Sansavini","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAwUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYPACCQZ+BgY2ECuBeC2SDcykaWFgMDhArBb59rOHP/xss7DbfLz/2MMfDHZ5hA0/k5cm2dsmkbztzGF2AwmG5GLCWhhyzBh4zkgkm91IZpMwYDiQ2EDQYf1vjD/+AWoxnv+YTSKBGC0MN3IMpHkqJOwMJJjZJA4Qo8XgxhszaZkKiQSJM8lmkg0GycQ4LMf44xuDOnv+9oPPJH9U2BHhMCiAqjQgVj0Q2JOgdhSMglEwCkYaAAB5YzkFksd6vQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8801-9667","institution":"ETH Zurich","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Giovanni","middleName":"","lastName":"Sansavini","suffix":""},{"id":601132499,"identity":"8b5ed340-7b35-449f-be84-95ea93a1ae28","order_by":1,"name":"Jacob Mannhardt","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6487-6998","institution":"ETH Zurich","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jacob","middleName":"","lastName":"Mannhardt","suffix":""},{"id":601132500,"identity":"184fbaa7-3ffe-4df2-b261-7a46f49af637","order_by":2,"name":"Paul Waidelich","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"ETH Zurich","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Paul","middleName":"","lastName":"Waidelich","suffix":""},{"id":601132501,"identity":"158a3d62-51c7-4410-8659-1daecdcfddc0","order_by":3,"name":"Lukas Schmidt-Engelbertz","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"ETH Zurich","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lukas","middleName":"","lastName":"Schmidt-Engelbertz","suffix":""},{"id":601132502,"identity":"676b262b-a405-4e6a-8819-710cb02dc4f0","order_by":4,"name":"Jon Schätti","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"ETH Zurich","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jon","middleName":"","lastName":"Schätti","suffix":""},{"id":601132503,"identity":"33377d8b-3d58-464a-a808-07b5a0231f0e","order_by":5,"name":"Bjarne Steffen","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2219-1402","institution":"ETH Zurich","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bjarne","middleName":"","lastName":"Steffen","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-16 20:35:16","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8896067/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8896067/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":104409037,"identity":"d52fcab0-f2af-4040-90ba-1e0e4bdce05e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-11 12:44:02","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1018007,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"EIBfinancingMannhardtetal.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8896067/v1_covered_71094ae8-7988-4829-a936-45dea3885f2b.pdf"},{"id":104404243,"identity":"02b10c9c-fa1f-4f46-ad1a-554644d31828","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-11 12:19:54","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":2540573,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information - Quantifying the effect of European Investment Bank financing on the low-carbon energy transition through 2050","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryinformationEIBfinancingMannhardtetal.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8896067/v1/e722d494520514726356fda5.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Quantifying the effect of European Investment Bank financing on the low-carbon energy transition through 2050","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Derisking, Energy finance, European investment bank, Energy system optimization, Transition pathway","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8896067/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8896067/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Transforming energy systems towards net-zero emissions requires substantial investments. Public loans from state investment banks and multilateral banks like the European Investment Bank (EIB) are seen as key for lowering investment barriers. Yet the impact of the EIB's energy lending on future technology deployment is unclear. Here, we employ a sector-coupled energy transition pathway model to quantify EIB lending effects, considering two channels: derisking investments in higher-risk countries and accelerating the deployment of emerging technologies. Starting from heterogeneous country risks and the current EIB energy lending budget, we find that a trade-off exists in allocating the lending capacity: prioritizing emerging technologies, such as direct air capture and electrolysis, enables smoother emission reductions, but concentrates investment in Northern Europe, whereas derisking mature technologies primarily benefits Southern Europe. Our findings highlight the EIB's role in accelerating technology deployment and suggest that increasing its energy lending budget can support the net-zero transition.","manuscriptTitle":"Quantifying the effect of European Investment Bank financing on the low-carbon energy transition through 2050","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-03-09 10:35:18","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8896067/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-energy","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nenergy","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Energy](http://www.nature.com/nenergy/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Energy","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Research","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"12c9a7ed-e2a4-4a20-894d-d85c6ee86f11","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 9th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":63973947,"name":"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling"},{"id":63973948,"name":"Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy policy"},{"id":63973949,"name":"Social science/Finance"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-13T11:30:29+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-03-09 10:35:18","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8896067","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8896067","identity":"rs-8896067","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}