Updated Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Pakistan

Updated Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Pakistan | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Updated Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Pakistan Muhammad Waseem, Mustafa Erdik This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1146457/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 26 May, 2023 Read the published version in Natural Hazards → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Pakistan is carried out to compute hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) for 975 and 2475 years return periods. A composite earthquake catalogue consisting of 32,700 events has been compiled having a magnitude range of M w 4.0-8.2 in this study and used in the analysis to make computations at a rectangular grid of 5 km in the OpenQuake plateform. Ground motion values have been obtained for flat rock reference seismic site conditions with shear wave velocity of 760 m/s. The epistemic uncertainties inherent in ground motion prediction equations and maximum magnitude potential of seismic sources are taken into account through logic tree. Ground motion prediction equations are assigned equal weights in the logic tree while different various weight are assigned to the maximum magnitude potential models. Results of the study are expressed as ground motion contour maps, mean uniform hazard spectra for important cities in Pakistan. PGA ranges from 0.16 to 0.54g for 10 % of probability of exceedance, 0.23 to 0.72g of probability of exceedance 0.32 to 1.02 g for 2 % of probability of exceedance in 50 years. Spectral acceleration at 0.2 s range from 0.67 to 2.19g for 2% chance of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. While spectral acceleration at 1.0 s values range from 0.09 to 0.52g 2% chance of exceedance in 50 years. Comparison of results of this study with other well regarded references of suggest that results of the study are rational and are reliable. Planetary Science Geophysics Civil Engineering Earthquake catalogue peak ground acceleration ground motion prediction equations deep earthquakes Pakistan Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 26 May, 2023 Read the published version in Natural Hazards → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-1146457","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":68845329,"identity":"02e4e7e6-8560-42c8-a17e-efb2097fd531","order_by":0,"name":"Muhammad Waseem","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAyUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBCDBH4GBjYStUg2kKzF4ACxWvjZmx8wF1TU5RnfSH724EMFgzy/2AH8WiR7jhkwzzhzuNjsRpq54YwzDIYzZyfg12JwI4eBmbftQOK2Gwlm0rxtQBfeJqDF/v4boJZ/dYmbZ6R/I06LgQQPUEsDc+IGiRwibZE4kwb0y7HDiTPOvCmTnHFGgrBf+NsPA0Ospi6xvz19m8SHCht5fmkCWoCA/TeYEgCrlCCoHAyYIfYdIE71KBgFo2AUjDwAAPknQB24qJcUAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"University of Engineering and Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Muhammad","middleName":"","lastName":"Waseem","suffix":""},{"id":68845330,"identity":"6b0d2948-4a9e-4924-9f49-8c92698759eb","order_by":1,"name":"Mustafa Erdik","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Bogazici University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mustafa","middleName":"","lastName":"Erdik","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2021-12-06 18:43:00","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1146457/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1146457/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05920-3","type":"published","date":"2023-05-26T14:04:48+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":16404328,"identity":"319916a8-b761-4adf-9c1d-e7758aaf8de2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-12-13 16:23:19","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2623416,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Paper.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1146457/v1_covered.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eUpdated Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Pakistan\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[{"header":"Full Text","content":"This preprint is available for \u003ca href='/article/rs-1146457/latest.pdf' target='_blank'\u003edownload as a PDF\u003c/a\u003e."}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Earthquake catalogue, peak ground acceleration, ground motion prediction equations, deep earthquakes, Pakistan","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1146457/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1146457/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eProbabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Pakistan is carried out to compute hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) for 975 and 2475 years return periods. A composite earthquake catalogue consisting of 32,700 events has been compiled having a magnitude range of M\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003ew\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e\u003cem\u003e 4.0-8.2 in this study and used in the analysis to make computations at a rectangular grid of 5 km in the OpenQuake plateform. \u0026nbsp;Ground motion values have been obtained for flat rock reference seismic site conditions with shear wave velocity of 760 m/s. The epistemic uncertainties inherent in ground motion prediction equations and maximum magnitude potential of seismic sources are taken into account through logic tree. Ground motion prediction equations are assigned equal weights in the logic tree while different various weight are assigned to the maximum magnitude potential models. Results of the study are expressed as ground motion contour maps, mean uniform hazard spectra for important cities in Pakistan. \u0026nbsp;PGA ranges from 0.16 to 0.54g for 10 % of probability of exceedance, 0.23 to 0.72g of probability of exceedance 0.32 to 1.02 g for 2 % of probability of exceedance in 50 years. Spectral acceleration at 0.2 s range from 0.67 to 2.19g for 2% chance of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. While spectral acceleration at 1.0 s values range from 0.09 to 0.52g 2% chance of exceedance in 50 years. Comparison of results of this study with other well regarded references of suggest that results of the study are rational and are reliable.\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Updated Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Pakistan","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2021-12-13 16:23:02","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1146457/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"2e964aa3-6c92-4485-b16e-c18a10c68b6c","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 13th, 2021","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":9115993,"name":"Planetary Science"},{"id":9115994,"name":"Geophysics"},{"id":9115995,"name":"Civil Engineering"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-04-27T14:04:48+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-1146457","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05920-3","journal":{"identity":"natural-hazards","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Natural Hazards"},"publishedOn":"2023-05-26 14:04:48","publishedOnDateReadable":"May 26th, 2023"},"versionCreatedAt":"2021-12-13 16:23:02","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s11069-023-05920-3","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-05920-3","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-1146457","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-1146457","identity":"rs-1146457","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"FbvkV6FR0MCFSLy54lSbu","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}