Rates of Antarctic Ice Sheet thinning since Last Glacial Maximum rival future projections

Rates of Antarctic Ice Sheet thinning since Last Glacial Maximum rival future projections | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Rates of Antarctic Ice Sheet thinning since Last Glacial Maximum rival future projections Roger Creel, Ryan Venturelli, Anna Ruth Halberstadt, Samuel Chester, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9510920/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Reconstructions of past Antarctic Ice Sheet thinning are ground-truthed using geologic records from terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide measurements[1]. However, rates of cosmogenic nuclide thinning have historically been oversimplified with linear approximations; and how past rates compare to projected future change remains poorly understood, as does the degree to which local thinning profiles cap- ture regional trends[2]. We reconstruct Antarctic Ice Sheet thinning since Last Glacial Maximum using 766 quality-controlled cosmogenic nuclide measurements at 147 sites across Antarctica, then compare past thinning to modern and projected rates at adjacent ice streams using the ICESat-2 observational record[3] and ISMIP-6 projections[4, 5]. When aggregated, cosmogenic nuclide profiles capture regional trends that align with global climate fluctuations and yield rate distributions whose time dependence offers quantitative insight into driving processes. Under sustained high emissions, maximum postglacial rates are 61%(59–63%, 95% credible interval) likely to exceed modern rates, 53%(46–60%) likely to exceed rates by 2100, but only 16%(11–22%) likely to exceed rates by 2300. Our results indicate that Antarctica may soon thin faster than it has since Last Glacial Maximum—a finding with implications for which Antarctic areas will next become ice free. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Palaeoclimate Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files AISthinningMSsupplement.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9510920","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":632028685,"identity":"0da102e4-2bd9-42a6-a8f6-5215c117cd7f","order_by":0,"name":"Roger 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However, rates of cosmogenic nuclide thinning have\r\nhistorically been oversimplified with linear approximations; and how past rates compare to projected\r\nfuture change remains poorly understood, as does the degree to which local thinning profiles cap-\r\nture regional trends[2]. We reconstruct Antarctic Ice Sheet thinning since Last Glacial Maximum\r\nusing 766 quality-controlled cosmogenic nuclide measurements at 147 sites across Antarctica, then\r\ncompare past thinning to modern and projected rates at adjacent ice streams using the ICESat-2\r\nobservational record[3] and ISMIP-6 projections[4, 5]. When aggregated, cosmogenic nuclide profiles\r\ncapture regional trends that align with global climate fluctuations and yield rate distributions whose\r\ntime dependence offers quantitative insight into driving processes. Under sustained high emissions,\r\nmaximum postglacial rates are 61%(59–63%, 95% credible interval) likely to exceed modern rates,\r\n53%(46–60%) likely to exceed rates by 2100, but only 16%(11–22%) likely to exceed rates by 2300.\r\nOur results indicate that Antarctica may soon thin faster than it has since Last Glacial Maximum—a\r\nfinding with implications for which Antarctic areas will next become ice free.","manuscriptTitle":"Rates of Antarctic Ice Sheet thinning since Last Glacial Maximum rival future projections","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-05-04 02:55:31","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9510920/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":false,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nature","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature](http://www.nature.com/nature/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"6b2329a3-67b7-45c4-9b37-0d169c793528","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 4th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"decision","content":"revise","date":"2026-05-02T19:00:44+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"5","date":"2026-04-29T22:08:37+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":67273269,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science"},{"id":67273270,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Palaeoclimate"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-04T22:10:31+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-05-04 02:55:31","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9510920","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9510920","identity":"rs-9510920","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}