Prediction of Transient Thermal Deformation in Press by Detrending Time-Series Variations

Prediction of Transient Thermal Deformation in Press by Detrending Time-Series Variations | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Prediction of Transient Thermal Deformation in Press by Detrending Time-Series Variations Tsung-Liang Wu, Yu-Tang Cao, Yueh-Lin Li This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7929237/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 24 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The servo presses are convinced that they can provide more flexibility in product design with a more efficient process. In the context of a future where precision machining is becoming increasingly critical, machining tolerances caused by thermal deformation and the potential risk of damage to molds must be considered seriously. This study proposes a feasible method for estimating the deviations of the clamping positions by measuring temperatures at key points. We first use finite element analysis to obtain the simulated thermal deformation behaviors of components in the press. Combined with our innovative detrending time-dependent approach, the Energy Influence Depth (EID) proposed in this study is used to compute the depth to which energy can be transmitted within a predefined area. Then, we train a compact prediction model to calculate ideal-state clamping position deviations under the thermal effect, achieving an accuracy of over 96% and 97% for the two sides of the moving head, which indirectly validates the effectiveness of our proposed Energy Influence Depth. Next, to obtain the experiment-based prediction model, we then conduct thermal-deformation experiments on the actual machine. Through the same model development method as the ideal-state model, we use the experimental data to obtain the EID value and train an experimental position deviation prediction model, with the test normalized root-mean-square error of 0.1 and 0.07. In conclusion, the model predicts the trend of the experimental results consistently. Although in our tests, sometimes, the model overestimates or underestimates the bed position deviation, which might be due to the lack of training data. Nevertheless, the method proposed in this study, combining the energy influence depth with a compact model to obtain the bed position deviation prediction model, is both feasible and practical. servo press machine thermal deformation thermal error prediction Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 24 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major Revisions Needed 31 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Nov, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 31 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 29 Oct, 2025 First submitted to journal 27 Oct, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7929237","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":538042645,"identity":"71d76e34-e5b8-4e82-a355-dbd3a1d7f6cd","order_by":0,"name":"Tsung-Liang 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Variations","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"the-international-journal-of-advanced-manufacturing-technology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"jamt","sideBox":"Learn more about [The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology](https://www.springer.com/journal/170)","snPcode":"170","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/170/3","title":"The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"servo press machine, thermal deformation, thermal error prediction","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7929237/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7929237/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe servo presses are convinced that they can provide more flexibility in product design with a more efficient process. In the context of a future where precision machining is becoming increasingly critical, machining tolerances caused by thermal deformation and the potential risk of damage to molds must be considered seriously. This study proposes a feasible method for estimating the deviations of the clamping positions by measuring temperatures at key points. We first use finite element analysis to obtain the simulated thermal deformation behaviors of components in the press. Combined with our innovative detrending time-dependent approach, the Energy Influence Depth (EID) proposed in this study is used to compute the depth to which energy can be transmitted within a predefined area. Then, we train a compact prediction model to calculate ideal-state clamping position deviations under the thermal effect, achieving an accuracy of over 96% and 97% for the two sides of the moving head, which indirectly validates the effectiveness of our proposed Energy Influence Depth. Next, to obtain the experiment-based prediction model, we then conduct thermal-deformation experiments on the actual machine. Through the same model development method as the ideal-state model, we use the experimental data to obtain the EID value and train an experimental position deviation prediction model, with the test normalized root-mean-square error of 0.1 and 0.07. In conclusion, the model predicts the trend of the experimental results consistently. Although in our tests, sometimes, the model overestimates or underestimates the bed position deviation, which might be due to the lack of training data. Nevertheless, the method proposed in this study, combining the energy influence depth with a compact model to obtain the bed position deviation prediction model, is both feasible and practical.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Prediction of Transient Thermal Deformation in Press by Detrending Time-Series Variations","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-11-11 16:53:53","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7929237/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Major Revisions Needed","date":"2025-12-31T08:28:54+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2025-11-14T08:10:19+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-10-31T12:03:29+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-10-30T03:06:39+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology","date":"2025-10-27T06:44:16+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"the-international-journal-of-advanced-manufacturing-technology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"jamt","sideBox":"Learn more about [The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology](https://www.springer.com/journal/170)","snPcode":"170","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/170/3","title":"The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"76b4e578-b14f-49af-8cd0-707d9fc65455","owner":[],"postedDate":"November 11th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-02T16:08:25+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-7929237","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00170-026-17579-8","journal":{"identity":"the-international-journal-of-advanced-manufacturing-technology","isVorOnly":false,"title":"The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology"},"publishedOn":"2026-02-24 15:58:33","publishedOnDateReadable":"February 24th, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-11-11 16:53:53","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s00170-026-17579-8","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00170-026-17579-8","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7929237","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7929237","identity":"rs-7929237","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}