The Impact of Environmental Governance and Economic Growth on Environmental Quality (CO₂ Emissions) in Ethiopia

The Impact of Environmental Governance and Economic Growth on Environmental Quality (CO₂ Emissions) in Ethiopia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The Impact of Environmental Governance and Economic Growth on Environmental Quality (CO₂ Emissions) in Ethiopia Yohannes Desalegn Negasa¹, Wondaferahu Mulugeta², Shiferaw Muleta¹, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8981720/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study investigates the impact of environmental governance and economic growth on Environmental quality (CO₂ emissions) in Ethiopia, specifically testing the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Utilizing a 28-year longitudinal dataset (1996–2023), the research employs an Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) framework for stationarity diagnostics and an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model supplemented by Huber-White robust standard errors to mitigate heteroscedasticity (p < 0.01). The results reveal a statistically significant inverted U-shaped trajectory (lnGDP, β = 26.64; lnGDP 2 , β 2 = -2.07; p < 0.001). The empirical analysis identifies a critical turning point at a log-income threshold of 6.42, signaling the onset of relative decoupling. Furthermore, while governance indicators remained statistically neutral, industrialization was found to exert a significant positive pressure on emissions (β = 1.05), suggesting that sectoral composition remains a primary barrier to environmental recovery. These findings imply that policy interventions should transition from general growth facilitation to targeted industrial decarbonization to accelerate the downward slope of the EKC. Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Carbon Emissions GDP Industrialization Robust Regression Sustainable Development Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files ethdata.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8981720","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":608308693,"identity":"03450732-fcee-479b-a703-96424f1b001e","order_by":0,"name":"Yohannes Desalegn Negasa¹","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABL0lEQVRIie2RP0vEMBiHcxy0S+qtLfXQj/AehYJY2q/SEshUUBdxLAidTmcP/RAFB3WLdMhSnCu3nBzc5HCli3BCTaU6aCqOgnngJW9CHn75g5BC8SfBH00o6lCUnrxPB8nvFGgX2KfSo31TzPBnBfjZfX106wVIJ/n6BTz/xlo+1Rh544wN+UKmFA/EnhU0SvCKWlOg5O6SOjZG1MmYFklTyhhsI81DZMYuwpATmIcglDzKGJ70KM7GSJsAmQd19QoNgUdebzBqhDKqehRXpLBBYsbIxsB8KLErUlibIr2+VRTuvpGSKMUr194GEkIRH+9dAXFmuTa5kChbfOrMjdQPRjpZVs8nfgCcX5eiGZ/z08VaouyyrtG6sXuk9oOGkv2Cna+nDeT7FAqF4j/zBtqbaEnKYRkiAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Addis Ababa University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yohannes","middleName":"Desalegn","lastName":"Negasa¹","suffix":""},{"id":608308694,"identity":"540d1027-0a96-4d91-955b-465902b115cc","order_by":1,"name":"Wondaferahu Mulugeta²","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Addis Ababa University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wondaferahu","middleName":"","lastName":"Mulugeta²","suffix":""},{"id":608308695,"identity":"f806ec49-cb07-49f1-a43d-0e85650d77ad","order_by":2,"name":"Shiferaw Muleta¹","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Addis Ababa University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shiferaw","middleName":"","lastName":"Muleta¹","suffix":""},{"id":608308704,"identity":"2e76ec7c-05c2-4848-b30f-539b360789fb","order_by":3,"name":"Aseffa Seyoum¹","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Addis Ababa University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Aseffa","middleName":"","lastName":"Seyoum¹","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-26 22:08:15","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8981720/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8981720/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107891881,"identity":"a0cc9f38-50f9-4473-b732-b4b44d7ca1d0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-27 10:10:40","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":496958,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"b32e82f4c372RevisedManuscriptEthiopiaNegasa.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8981720/v1_covered_6c6e7f43-952b-4f1b-8e4e-5ef5502eb66a.pdf"},{"id":105204604,"identity":"00c7e9d9-85e8-4b39-83ef-dc13375dd12f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-23 12:28:04","extension":"xlsx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":14677,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ethdata.xlsx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8981720/v1/6bc0f5aca3b066eb8e8e2f19.xlsx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"The Impact of Environmental Governance and Economic Growth on Environmental Quality (CO₂ Emissions) in Ethiopia","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), Carbon Emissions, GDP, Industrialization, Robust Regression, Sustainable Development","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8981720/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8981720/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study investigates the impact of environmental governance and economic growth on Environmental quality (CO₂ emissions) in Ethiopia, specifically testing the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. 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