Climate-Driven Flood Risks and Damages: A Case Study of the Kashkan River Floodplain

Climate-Driven Flood Risks and Damages: A Case Study of the Kashkan River Floodplain | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Climate-Driven Flood Risks and Damages: A Case Study of the Kashkan River Floodplain Afsaneh Nobakht Dalir, Erfan Zarei, Mostafa Khorsand Movaghar, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7054986/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Flood losses in semi-arid Iran are rising and are widely expected to accelerate under climate change, yet quantitative projections for many interior basins remain sparse. Here we combine statistically-downscaled CMIP6 projections, a hybrid HEC-HMS–LSTM rainfall–run-off model, one-dimensional HEC-RAS hydraulics and the Damage Scanner module to appraise potential future fluvial-flood damage and risk in the Kashkan River basin, a region that is highly prone to flooding. In this study, we analyzed impacts of climate change on changes in rainfall, flood severity and frequency and inundation extent and depth, as well as flood damages in Kashkan River basin. The study utilized CMIP6 climate models under two climate scenarios, SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, which covers the near (2030–2060) and far future (2060–2090) periods. The findings reveal that both scenarios project a notable increase in the frequency, intensity, and extent of flooding, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. SSP5-8.5 scenario indicates a more accelerated and severe impact, mostly in the far future. The projected flood hazards are expected to cause substantial economic losses, with the expected annual damage (EAD) estimated to escalate dramatically by 2090. expected annual damage (EAD) grows from a 2015 baseline of US $ 1 m to US $ 7.5 m (SSP1-2.6) and US $ 18 m (SSP5-8.5) by 2090. Losses concentrate along the densely settled east bank of Pole-Dokhtar. The findings of the study can provide a basis for planners and policymakers to make decisions to adapt to the changing climate, and floods. Results show without decisive action; fluvial flooding could erase decades of socio-economic gains in Lorestan Province. Integrating the present maps into local development plans, prioritizing river-side hot-spots for investment, is pragmatic steps towards safeguarding Pole-Dokhtar against a climate-intensified flood future. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Climate change Flood risk Rainfall-runoff model Inundation model Flood damage model Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 04 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 04 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 04 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 28 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 28 Aug, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 27 Aug, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 25 Jul, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 10 Jul, 2025 First submitted to journal 10 Jul, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7054986","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":508705993,"identity":"55e638d3-aa07-4ddd-b187-f0c09bc7cab1","order_by":0,"name":"Afsaneh Nobakht Dalir","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tarbiat Modares University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Afsaneh","middleName":"Nobakht","lastName":"Dalir","suffix":""},{"id":508705994,"identity":"3afd636c-3794-4e60-bcf5-3b496a083dc7","order_by":1,"name":"Erfan Zarei","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tarbiat Modares University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Erfan","middleName":"","lastName":"Zarei","suffix":""},{"id":508705995,"identity":"7769a3c3-0e4e-4d81-8d66-4c2b8d3ad5e6","order_by":2,"name":"Mostafa Khorsand Movaghar","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tarbiat Modares University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mostafa","middleName":"Khorsand","lastName":"Movaghar","suffix":""},{"id":508705996,"identity":"1e29b3c8-b021-4a1d-ae39-c60a304df1e6","order_by":3,"name":"Farzin Nasiri Saleh","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABBElEQVRIie3QMUvDQBTA8XcEkuV0PjCQr/CCkFBqyVexFOxyguASpIRM16XieoMf5spBXA5dA11SHLpkERcHBU8HUUhi3RzuPx78uPcegMv1T1OAAIdASQPgfb3SX4kP1MO9yWeW+Ow76S0N7rY6vygiP7iurup8HKXLZQMvCwjTspuMVhzXBnUs6P3Zhpt5fGsMklUFNFTdBBWHdYmKCMaTzbnQRDIOcFACZT2D4cOusaTIRNQml5ZkMto15G2I1KdoiTcVjCaeJVPJAL3BX+r2g+iZoPz4yO4yk5SjDis2MNj88al8LSY3gYmfeT6eSHvDbbs4yfpIdwrgb8DlcrlcP3sHomlVlVJSCUUAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Tarbiat Modares University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Farzin","middleName":"Nasiri","lastName":"Saleh","suffix":""},{"id":508705997,"identity":"bf4f0e61-16a6-423d-9de5-1cfaa7e1a565","order_by":4,"name":"Majid Delavar","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tarbiat Modares University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Majid","middleName":"","lastName":"Delavar","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-05 21:23:07","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7054986/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7054986/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":91148307,"identity":"d95e29f6-1d78-412a-8ce5-a07303b0a376","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-12 06:43:54","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2512629,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"FinalmanuscriptScientificReportsv1.2.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7054986/v1_covered_68857814-ce89-4960-99f5-746f09071407.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Climate-Driven Flood Risks and Damages: A Case Study of the Kashkan River Floodplain","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Climate change, Flood risk, Rainfall-runoff model, Inundation model, Flood damage model","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7054986/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7054986/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eFlood losses in semi-arid Iran are rising and are widely expected to accelerate under climate change, yet quantitative projections for many interior basins remain sparse. Here we combine statistically-downscaled CMIP6 projections, a hybrid HEC-HMS\u0026ndash;LSTM rainfall\u0026ndash;run-off model, one-dimensional HEC-RAS hydraulics and the Damage Scanner module to appraise potential future fluvial-flood damage and risk in the Kashkan River basin, a region that is highly prone to flooding. In this study, we analyzed impacts of climate change on changes in rainfall, flood severity and frequency and inundation extent and depth, as well as flood damages in Kashkan River basin. The study utilized CMIP6 climate models under two climate scenarios, SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, which covers the near (2030\u0026ndash;2060) and far future (2060\u0026ndash;2090) periods.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe findings reveal that both scenarios project a notable increase in the frequency, intensity, and extent of flooding, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. SSP5-8.5 scenario indicates a more accelerated and severe impact, mostly in the far future. The projected flood hazards are expected to cause substantial economic losses, with the expected annual damage (EAD) estimated to escalate dramatically by 2090. expected annual damage (EAD) grows from a 2015 baseline of US \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e1 m to US \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e7.5 m (SSP1-2.6) and US \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e18 m (SSP5-8.5) by 2090. Losses concentrate along the densely settled east bank of Pole-Dokhtar. The findings of the study can provide a basis for planners and policymakers to make decisions to adapt to the changing climate, and floods. Results show without decisive action; fluvial flooding could erase decades of socio-economic gains in Lorestan Province. 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