Reforestation scenarios shape global and regional temperature outcomes

Reforestation scenarios shape global and regional temperature outcomes | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Reforestation scenarios shape global and regional temperature outcomes Nora Fahrenbach, Steven De Hertog, Felix Jäger, Peter Lawrence, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7714264/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 11 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Large-scale reforestation is a prominent proposed climate mitigation strategy, but its full temperature impact remains poorly understood. Here, we present the first comparison of temperature responses to three distinct reforestation potentials using a fully-coupled Earth System Model. We find that reforestation consistently provides net global cooling, ranging from -0.13°C to -0.25°C, due to carbon uptake partially offset by biogeophysical warming. Crucially, a comparable net global cooling can be achieved with substantially smaller (450 Mha less area) but strategically located reforestation. Reforestation locally cools the tropics but causes albedo-driven warming in higher latitudes, which is often amplified by non-local effects. The largest differences between scenarios arise from these non-local effects, showing that planting locations shape the biogeophysical response through atmospheric feedbacks. Our findings underscore the benefits of "climate-smart" policies that focus on the geographical placement of reforestation, considering both biogeochemical and local biogeophysical effects to maximize cooling benefits. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Reforestation Temperature Climate change mitigation Earth System Modeling Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files FINALWP2supplement.pdf PDF Supplementary Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 11 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7714264","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":526344004,"identity":"05520819-ff37-4136-bf72-dd00fd205c8b","order_by":0,"name":"Nora Fahrenbach","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1688-8425","institution":"ETH Zurich","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nora","middleName":"","lastName":"Fahrenbach","suffix":""},{"id":526344005,"identity":"12c05d62-a8c3-472d-a0ed-9229c7c8ddb0","order_by":1,"name":"Steven De Hertog","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5733-4632","institution":"Q-ForestLab, Department of Environment, Universiteit Gent, Ghent, Belgium","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Steven","middleName":"","lastName":"De Hertog","suffix":""},{"id":526344008,"identity":"5d96a80a-662e-4481-a760-d596a97ef774","order_by":2,"name":"Felix Jäger","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6986-0701","institution":"Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Felix","middleName":"","lastName":"Jäger","suffix":""},{"id":526344010,"identity":"02db8485-bc81-4183-aed1-fe77899a4ce2","order_by":3,"name":"Peter Lawrence","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4843-4903","institution":"National Center for Atmospheric Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Peter","middleName":"","lastName":"Lawrence","suffix":""},{"id":526344011,"identity":"1cda01a6-35b0-4ee3-9c04-1543284897da","order_by":4,"name":"Robert C. 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