From shocks to actions: A four-decade subnational climate policy analysis in China

From shocks to actions: A four-decade subnational climate policy analysis in China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article From shocks to actions: A four-decade subnational climate policy analysis in China Bo Li, Enxian Fu, Miao Chang, Jian Zhang, Wei Zhang, Yaling Lu, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9319405/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate shocks are widely recognized as triggers for policy action; however, the mechanisms translating acute disaster events and chronic temperature anomalies into subnational governance remain poorly understood. To address this, we analyse four decades (1980--2020) of provincial data in China, disentangling the non-linear dynamics between diverse climate exposures and policy responses. Using a transformer-based Policy Response Index, we identify a Dual-Track Governance Logic'. We find that acute disasters trigger an Accumulation Pathway' where policy intensity grows with repeated exposure, but this response is strictly resource-gated: affluent regions build resilience, whereas fiscally constrained provinces suffer a Survival Crowding-out' effect, dampening long-term planning. Conversely, chronic heat drives a Pulse Pathway' activated only beyond a physiological threshold ($\sim$28,$^\circ$C), yet this momentum decays by $\sim$50% within three years and is structurally inhibited in industrial hubs by `Carbon Lock-in'. These findings challenge the assumption of universal climate learning, revealing instead that physical shocks exacerbate regional inequalities through fiscal traps and industrial inertia. Effective climate governance thus requires distinct interventions: vertical fiscal transfers to overcome disaster-poverty traps and external oversight to break resistance to chronic risks. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change policy Scientific community and society/Developing world Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformation.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9319405","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":622776857,"identity":"32541d4d-be33-44f6-86fa-3b68977c7fb1","order_by":0,"name":"Bo 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