Structure, evolution, and resilience of the pearl goods global trade network

Structure, evolution, and resilience of the pearl goods global trade network | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Structure, evolution, and resilience of the pearl goods global trade network Qishen Zhou, Jingping Hu, Jiahui Yi, Yalan Xu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7043164/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The rapid expansion of the global pearl industry has not been met by a rigorous, network-based appraisal of its trade structure and systemic risk. Drawing on the UN Comtrade records of 128 economies during the 2012–2023 period, this study constructs a multiplex, directed, and weighted network that distinguishes upstream wholesale pearls from downstream pearl articles. Complex-network diagnostics (degree, betweenness, and molecularity) are complemented by edge-percolations simulations for tracking the relative size of the largest connected component and the global efficiency under random and targeted link failures. The results confirm a persistent small-world topology. Upstream hubs are dictated by natural endowments—principally those of China, Australia, and French Polynesia—whereas midstream brokerage is dominated by the United States, Germany, and Switzerland. Technological-standard diffusion has shifted the growth nodes from the traditional quartet of the United States, China, Japan, and Australia to continental Europe and South Asia. Despite progressive decentralization, China and the United States remain the dual fulcra of both value and intermediation. Resilience tests reveal that the level of overall stability has improved since 2013, yet the system is still highly sensitive to the removal of some of the high-betweenness edges. Eliminating such bridges results in a > 20% drop in network efficiency that occurs long before any equivalent random deletions do. These findings furnish a quantitative benchmark for monitoring trade route diversification, highlight the need for contingency logistics that can bypass incumbent hubs, and provide a decision-analytic basis for governments and firms seeking to fortify the pearl value chain against ecological shocks, trade disputes, and the tightening of sustainability standards. Humanities/Complex networks Social science/Complex networks Business and commerce/Economics Social science/Economics Scientific community and society/Geography Social science/Geography Social science/Politics and international relations Social science/Science technology and society Complex Network Pearl Trade Network Evolutionary Network Resilience Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files TradeDataimportsupplementaryinformation1.xlsx TradeDataexportsupplementaryinformation2.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 22 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 14 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 09 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Sep, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 21 Sep, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 21 Sep, 2025 Editor invited by journal 19 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 27 Aug, 2025 First submitted to journal 27 Aug, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7043164","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":523953380,"identity":"9d47cfdf-a731-4469-9aa0-120c4dd4d245","order_by":0,"name":"Qishen Zhou","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"China University of Geosciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qishen","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhou","suffix":""},{"id":523953382,"identity":"21813295-3f24-4655-a6a1-30a25a5a44ef","order_by":1,"name":"Jingping Hu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"China University of 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Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Nature AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Complex Network, Pearl Trade, Network Evolutionary, Network Resilience","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7043164/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7043164/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe rapid expansion of the global pearl industry has not been met by a rigorous, network-based appraisal of its trade structure and systemic risk. Drawing on the UN Comtrade records of 128 economies during the 2012\u0026ndash;2023 period, this study constructs a multiplex, directed, and weighted network that distinguishes upstream wholesale pearls from downstream pearl articles. Complex-network diagnostics (degree, betweenness, and molecularity) are complemented by edge-percolations simulations for tracking the relative size of the largest connected component and the global efficiency under random and targeted link failures. The results confirm a persistent small-world topology. Upstream hubs are dictated by natural endowments\u0026mdash;principally those of China, Australia, and French Polynesia\u0026mdash;whereas midstream brokerage is dominated by the United States, Germany, and Switzerland. Technological-standard diffusion has shifted the growth nodes from the traditional quartet of the United States, China, Japan, and Australia to continental Europe and South Asia. Despite progressive decentralization, China and the United States remain the dual fulcra of both value and intermediation. Resilience tests reveal that the level of overall stability has improved since 2013, yet the system is still highly sensitive to the removal of some of the high-betweenness edges. Eliminating such bridges results in a\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;20% drop in network efficiency that occurs long before any equivalent random deletions do. These findings furnish a quantitative benchmark for monitoring trade route diversification, highlight the need for contingency logistics that can bypass incumbent hubs, and provide a decision-analytic basis for governments and firms seeking to fortify the pearl value chain against ecological shocks, trade disputes, and the tightening of sustainability standards.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Structure, evolution, and resilience of the pearl goods global trade network","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-03 03:58:42","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7043164/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-12-22T09:51:05+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-11-14T09:07:40+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"32132464473884425921789192994183518196","date":"2025-10-17T09:56:57+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-10-10T00:25:42+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"96249598800862316426418932164555395239","date":"2025-09-22T02:25:13+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-09-21T16:59:51+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-09-21T15:47:21+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2025-09-19T07:02:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-08-28T03:58:04+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Humanities and Social Sciences Communications","date":"2025-08-28T03:54:38+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"humanities-and-social-sciences-communications","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"palcomms","sideBox":"Learn more about [Humanities \u0026 Social Sciences Communications](http://www.nature.com/palcomms/)","snPcode":"41599","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/41599/3","title":"Humanities and Social Sciences Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Nature AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"09aad878-fff9-4585-9f28-67e9bdc59cc1","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 3rd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"in-revision","subjectAreas":[{"id":55688438,"name":"Humanities/Complex networks"},{"id":55688439,"name":"Social science/Complex networks"},{"id":55688440,"name":"Business and commerce/Economics"},{"id":55688441,"name":"Social science/Economics"},{"id":55688442,"name":"Scientific community and society/Geography"},{"id":55688443,"name":"Social science/Geography"},{"id":55688444,"name":"Social science/Politics and international relations"},{"id":55688445,"name":"Social science/Science technology and society"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-04T13:25:53+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-03 03:58:42","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7043164","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7043164","identity":"rs-7043164","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}