Crop Switching Enhances Multi-Dimensional Sustainability under Future SSP Pathways in the North China Plain

Crop Switching Enhances Multi-Dimensional Sustainability under Future SSP Pathways in the North China Plain | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Crop Switching Enhances Multi-Dimensional Sustainability under Future SSP Pathways in the North China Plain shiyan Zhai, Gaojie zhang, Peichao Gao, Gangjun Liu, Cong Zhao, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8463644/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Food system sustainability presents a complex challenge exacerbated by climate change and growing global demand. The North China Plain, one of China's major grain-producing regions, confronts a significant threat to both water and food security, driven by severe groundwater over-exploitation. To address this challenge, we propose a crop switching strategy to enhance agricultural sustainability in the North China Plain. Our scenario analysis demonstrates that, under a middle-of-the-road scenario (SSP2), replacing high-water-consuming crops with low-water-consuming alternatives could feed an additional 5.18 million people, reduce water use by 2.0%, and increase farmer profits by 3.6% by 2030. While the sustainable scenario (SSP1) would amplify these benefits, the regional rivalry scenario (SSP3) would achieve greater food production and water savings at the expanse of farmer profits. Despite these differences, all scenarios could support progress toward Sustainable Development Goals. Our findings position strategic crop switching as a viable approach to alleviate interconnected food, water, and economic pressures, not only in the North China Plain but also in other comparable regions facing similar pressures. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Planting structure sustainable development food security water resources Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8463644","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":576984712,"identity":"d09bf819-f176-4d0d-96ee-1166950291f4","order_by":0,"name":"shiyan 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The North China Plain, one of China's major grain-producing regions, confronts a significant threat to both water and food security, driven by severe groundwater over-exploitation. To address this challenge, we propose a crop switching strategy to enhance agricultural sustainability in the North China Plain. Our scenario analysis demonstrates that, under a middle-of-the-road scenario (SSP2), replacing high-water-consuming crops with low-water-consuming alternatives could feed an additional 5.18\u0026nbsp;million people, reduce water use by 2.0%, and increase farmer profits by 3.6% by 2030. While the sustainable scenario (SSP1) would amplify these benefits, the regional rivalry scenario (SSP3) would achieve greater food production and water savings at the expanse of farmer profits. Despite these differences, all scenarios could support progress toward Sustainable Development Goals. 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