Investigating the operational process and decision-making of child trafficking in Southwest China

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This study provides the spatial analysis and crime script analysis to examine the pattern and operational steps involved in child trafficking and the decisions made by offenders in different phrases. The results showed that habitual residence of offenders and the origin where trafficking occurs tend to overlap in space. Offenders tended to find target close to their home area, then they prefer to operate in groups of 3 to 5 members and have loose and fluid structures. Offenders preferred to move children by car in short-distance transportation, while they would prioritize the trains, followed by buses in long-distance transportation. Child trafficking spanned a continuum involving the acquiring/purchase, transfer, keeping, advertising/introduction and sale. Offenders made decisions in different phases of child trafficking and the reasons for doing so depended on whether it was at the onset or progression of trafficking. The ease of achieving a target, expected risk and expected profits are the three key factors influencing offenders. The results provide novel evidence for targeted efforts to combat and prevent child trafficking. Child trafficking Operational steps Decision-making offenders Southwest China Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 1 Introduction Child trafficking is one of the most serious crime worldwide. It not only causes irreparable trauma for children and their families, but also poses a serious threat to the sustainable development of society. Child trafficking in China peaked around the 1990s (Li et al., 2019 ; Li et al., 2017 ). In order to curb this phenomenon, Ministry of Public Security of the People's Republic of China have launched a nationwide special campaign to combat the trafficking in women and children. According to the latest report, more than 550 cases of trafficking were detected, and a group of suspects involved in human trafficking have been arrested in 2024.[1] It indicated that the number of child trafficking remains at a high level. At present, the anti-trafficking campaign has driven child trafficking further underground, taking on a highly ‘clandestine’ and covert nature. It is a challenging task to understand and solve the issue, which not only creates obstacles for China's criminal justice system, but also poses a threat to public safety and social development. Within this, any attempt to understand and regulate child trafficking should involve spatial analysis and operational process, the decisions made by offenders in different trafficking links are also the most critical and elusive part of this issue. A more nuanced analysis of trafficking from a geographical perspective, has been suggested by scholars to increase scrutiny and reflection on anti-trafficking activities (Blazek et al., 2019 ; McGrath & Watson, 2018 ). Scholars have been focusing on the spatial analysis of crime for some time, and some new technical methods in geography have been widely applied to explore this issue ( Liu et al., 2017 ; Liu et al., 2018 ;). A number of interdisciplinary theories have been proposed to explain the observed spatial decision-making patterns of offenders (Zhao & Zhang, 2025 ; Bernasco et al., 2015 ). Attempts to explain vary, and scholars have comprehensively considered various mechanisms that may affect the occurrence of crimes at a particular location (Kalsi et al., 2025 ; Wang & Li, 2022 ). However, many studies have taken into account the spatial patterns of acquisitive crimes such as burglary and robbery, but few have considered patterns for other types of crime, such as child trafficking. Child trafficking, as a serious crime in China, not only had a distinct temporal feature but also involved the spatial movement between the victim and the offender in different regions (Zhou et al., 2023a ). The crime is quite different from residential burglary and street robbery. Residential burglary usually occurred in unoccupied dwelling and was a crime of stealth (Long et al., 2021 ). Robbery crimes were usually committed on the street, where the risk of being discovered during the crime may be higher (Zhou et al., 2017 ). In contrast, although child trafficking may occur in residential areas or on the streets, there were significant differences in terms of criminal targets, spatial distribution of opportunities, and operational process. Studying different types of crime pattern is important for understanding the roles of relevant stakeholders in the operational process, but also crucial for analyzing how offenders make rational decisions in space. The aim of this study is to contribute to our knowledge on the operational steps involved in child trafficking and the decisions made by offenders in different phrases. Southwest China was generally called the origin province for child trafficking and a gathering place for various offenders (Xia et al., 2022 ). Historically, Southwest China has a complex location, bordering by lower-income countries such as Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar. In addition, Southwest China is inhabited by many ethnic minorities, with distinctive customs and festivals, and the population composition is very diverse. These obvious differences in geographical and demographic characteristics were reflected in the activities of child trafficking. However, we know little about these traffickers or their illicit activities. Unlike previous studies, in addition to focusing on spatial patterns of crime, this study provides a more detail analysis of operational process of child trafficking. The use of spatial analysis methods allows us to understand whether the locations where offenders chose to commit crimes are close to the distribution of their habitual residences. Using criminal scripts to analyze whether offenders usually commit crimes alone or in groups? Which means of transportation do offenders prefer to take to transfer child victims? What phases do traffickers go through to achieve the entire trafficking process? In addition, the application of relevant theories provide a strong support for understanding this issue. Crime pattern theory is used to explain the spatial pattern of offenders at the macro scale, while the rational choice theory is employed to elucidate the motives and attitudes of offenders at the micro scale, paying particular attention to how offenders make targeting decisions at different trafficking links. The findings are expected to provide insightful clues for academia, government and the public to understand this issue better. The study is organized as follows. The first part of the article reviews relevant theoretical perspectives and summarize previous findings, providing readers with an understanding of the research on child trafficking in China. It then describes the data and methods used. In the third part, the article focuses on the spatial pattern and operational process of child trafficking, as well as how offenders make rational decisions at different stages. Lastly, the author summarizes the findings and proposes several feasible strategies to intervene in the activities of offenders involved in child trafficking. 2. Literature review 2.1 A brief review of crime pattern theory Crime pattern theory holds that crimes are not randomly distributed in places but rather tend to cluster geographically (Brantingham & Brantingham, 1995 ). Whether there is a criminal motive or not, some places where a large number of people converge, such as shopping malls, sports stadiums, transportation hubs, etc., may lead to a high volume of criminal opportunities. Therefore, these places were usually regarded as crime generators (Kinney et al., 2008 ). Another areas were more likely to attract motivated offenders, such as bar districts, drugselling spots, prostitution areas, which were well-known for providing opportunities for crime and are usually referred to as crime attractors (Kurland et al., 2014 ). These places were more likely to generate the creation of crime hot spots and crime corridors by allowing the spatial awareness of offenders to intersect with that of potential victims (Brantingham et al., 2020 ). Awareness space is the places where a person regularly or recently activities, involving their habitual routes between these places and area within visual range of these places and routes (Bernasco, 2010 ). Crime pattern theory argues that crime occurs when the awareness space of motivated offenders and attractive criminal opportunities overlap in time and space (Johnson & Summers, 2015 ). Offenders are most likely to commit crimes in familiar areas where they have better practical knowledge, including familiar with routes and better knowledge of opportunities. In contrast, offenders rarely venture into unknown areas to commit crimes or unexplored environments to seek new opportunities, which is related to awareness space (Rengert & Wasilchick, 2000 ). In these places, offenders can make the least effort to locate desirable criminal opportunities, thereby reducing the risks related to criminal involvement, which is a seemingly rational decision made by offenders based on cost-effectiveness. Scholars have utilized detailed arrest data provided by the police to analyze the patterns, processes, and mechanisms of crime from a geographical perspective, focusing on aspects such as the travel distances, spatial decision-making and repeat crime of offenders (Van Daele et al., 2011; Bernasco et al., 2015 ; Johnson et al., 2015). Research on burglary cases has found that burglars must know a location in order to choose it as a target for burglary. The awareness spaces of burglars not only included their former home locations, but may also involves other former anchor points, such as workplaces, schools or friends' homes (Johnson & Summers, 2015 ). In the analysis of property crime, it seems obvious that outbound offending frequently occurs in affluent target areas and near motorways, so as to reduce their relative transportation costs during the offence process (Van Daele et al, 2011). 2.2 A brief review of rational choice theory The spatial decision-making of offenders is a relatively rational process, which is the result of weighing among benefits, costs and risks (Cornish,1986). The choice of offenders not only depends on the number of potential victims in the area, but also is related to the availability of ‘desirable’ or ‘suitable’ targets (Bernasco et al, 2013 ). In order to find suitable targets for crime, motivated offenders must go to unguarded, vulnerable, or unguarded places to identify targets carrying valuable or freely disposable goods. According to rational choice theory, the behaviour of a person making decision to commit crime is related to her or his rational weighing of the costs and benefits of the crime (Broadhurst et al, 2018 ). The benefits of crime may be related to financial gain, social status, or other personal rewards, while the costs a series of punitive measures, such as fines, imprisonment, or damage to one’s reputation (Broadhurst et al, 2018 ). The benefits of crime may include financial gain, social status, or other personal rewards, while the costs may include fines, imprisonment, or damage to one’s reputation (Broadhurst et al, 2018 ). It is evident that the lower the cost and risk of crime, the greater the potential reward, and the more likely people are to engage in crime. Rational choice theory holds that individuals are motivated by their own interests, they always tend to pursue the maximization of benefits and the minimization of costs (Engeler & Balietti, 2021 ). Among them, accessibility is an important factor affecting the cost of crime in areas, the higher the accessibility, the lower the cost and the easier it is to attract offenders (Davies & Johnson, 2015 ). To minimize costs, the spatial decisions of offenders tend towards neighboring points (Johnson et al, 2015). Because offenders are familiar with the areas, nodes and paths near their homes, it not only helps them choose suitable targets (Bernasco et al, 2017 ), but also enables them to hide, evade or avoid being discovered. Scholars obtained data by random interviews with imprisoned or arrested offenders, using criminal investigation or social psychology methods to reveal, prevent and confirm the means and decision of offenders (Cook et al, 2015 ; Lindegaard et al, 2015 ). A study explored arms trafficking by organized crime groups in the Balkans (Arsovska & Kostakos, 2008 ). The demand for illegal goods or services and the pursuit of financial gain were the main target driving the choices made by criminal syndicate. Another study found that drug trafficking is a rational choice, especially on cryptomarkets where the benefits outweigh the potential costs, and a few entrepreneurs who have organized crime groups engaging in the voluminous drug sales to minimize risk (Sankul & Saira, 2023 ). Nonetheless, the fact remains that the benefits outweigh the risks in the drug trafficking market (Demant et al, 2018 ). At present, due to the difficulty in obtaining criminal data, the risks and benefits of offenders in child trafficking are rarely concerned, and it is urgent to carry out relevant work to solve this thorny problem. 2.3 Research on child trafficking In fact, child trafficking is a complex process that is widely considered to be related to the source, transit, and destination geographies, involving temporal and spatial changes between offenders (traffickers) and victims (children) (Zhou et al. 2022 ). Spatial analysis targeting these specific source, transit and demand destinations is crucial (e.g., trafficking hotspots, trafficking routes, trafficking networks). A latest study revealed that child trafficking was spatially clustered at spatial scales ranging from provinces to zones within cities (Huang & Weng, 2019 ; Li et al., 2019 ). Specifically, the origin provinces have a huge impact on transfer paths of child trafficking (Yao et al., 2021 ). Southwest China has been identified as the key origin of child trafficking, which served as a supplier (Li et al., 2019 ). And eastern China was the primary destination that showed a high frequency of child purchases (Xin & Cai, 2018 ). Non-capital cities were playing an important role in the national trafficking network (Huang & Weng, 2019 ). Further narrowing down the scale to micro locations revealed that child trafficking usually occurred in open spaces or facilities, including rural doorsteps, streets and alleys, parks, squares or fairs and so on (Zhou et al., 2023a ). Undoubtedly, such efforts have improved understanding of child trafficking from the perspective of geography, which have contributed to relevant authorities take a more detailed and targeted response. Surprisingly, most of these studies focus on victims (children) to identify key areas. The spatial distribution of offenders (traffickers) has been neglected to some extent. Child trafficking involved physical contact between the offender and the target in space. ‘Space’ not only includes a physical place, but also extends to the network of interaction between offenders in different links (Jin et al., 2024 ). Beyond insight about the spatial pattern, interventions to reduce harms from child trafficking also need to understand the connections among the relevant stakeholders (e.g., sellers, middlemen, and buyers) across the trafficking process, as well as the rational decisions made by offenders in different trafficking links. At present, the literature on legal judgments of offenders and anti-trafficking operations appears to be increasing (Xin & Cai, 2022 ; Wang, 2015 ). Especially the discussions on the sentencing standards for offenders with different roles such as sellers, middlemen, and buyers have become more intense (Xing, 2017 ; Jiang & Sánchez-Barricart, 2013 ). These efforts stem from the fields of law and criminology. Although methodologically interesting, the existing studies focuses on information about where crimes occur, without reference to where offenders reside. It remains unknown whether the crime location is close to the residences of offenders in space. There is significantly less literature characterizing motivations, attitudes, behaviors of offenders in the whole process of child trafficking. In response to the call for an in-depth study on trafficking from a geographical perspective, this study not only provides a spatial analysis of trafficking by means of GIS mapping, but also extends its focus to the operational steps involved in child trafficking and the decisions made by offenders in different phrases. 2.4 Crime script analysis Crime scripts can systematically analyze each step required to commit a crime, highlighting the sequence of decision points within an individual's experience (Cornish & Clarke, 2002 ). It is widely applied to crimes such as pickpocketing, burglary, and drug manufacturing to analyze criminal activities involving individuals or groups. Cornish ( 1994 ) divided the crime script of predatory crimes into nine stages: including preparation, entry, precondition, instrumental precondition, instrumental initiation, instrumental actualization, doing, postcondition, and exit scenes. Child trafficking is a complex process involving a series of actions, offender may make decisions at each step. In this context, crime scripts provide important insights into the essential steps required for the child trafficking to take place and identifying how and where to intervene. Given the significant differences in stages and number of scripts among different types of crimes, the results may eventually be biased. Therefore, based on the reference to existing research (van der Bruggen & Blokland, 2021 ), we have adjusted the exact number of stages to fit the crime under scrutiny in this study. The crime script was divided into four stages : preparation (the offender with motive), pre-activity (finding the crime target), activity (trafficking process), and post-activity (escape). The structure of these four stages corresponds to the process of premeditated child trafficking in this study. 3 Data and method 3.1 Data In this study, we utilized the database from China Judgments Online ( https://wenshu.court.gov.cn/ ), the official platform publishing judicial documents from all levels of courts in China. Such court documents of trials are legal and authentic (Supreme People’s Court, 2013 ), and researchers can access the publicly available data online. Using the keyword ‘child trafficking’, we downloaded all the related first-instance judgments issued by the courts in Southwest China. By January 2021, 1225 offenders were identified in the decisions of Southwest China. In these cases, 657 offenders were from Yunnan Province, 158 were from Guizhou Province, 382 were from Sichuan Province, and 28 were from Chongqing City. We read every judgment and manually coded all the information on offenders, including the date of birth, gender, age, province of origin, level of education, the trial date of the court document, date, price, and purpose of the transaction. 3.2 Method Hot spot analysis and crime script are the key methods in this study. Hotspot analysis is a suitable analytical tool to reveal the spatial pattern of child trafficking (Zhou et al., 2023b ). The ArcGIS 10.2 is used in this work to perform the hot spot analysis. This method evaluates whether child trafficking is significantly clustered and maps the habitual residence of offenders and the place where the offenders committed the crime. Meanwhile, crime script is a method used to analyze the critical steps of child trafficking (Cornish, 1994 ). According to the different stages of the crime script, the criminal behavior in child trafficking is divided into various stages. Once the script describes the steps of the crime, one can pinpoint identify the specific opportunities related to the crime and thereby design appropriate situational measure to prevent occurrence of the crime. 4 Results 4.1 Spatial pattern of offenders In this study, we used ArcGIS10.2 to visualize the habitual residence of offenders in Southwest China. The number of traffickers at the city level was divided into five groups in this study (in order of decreasing number of offenders). As Fig. 1 a shows, Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture were ranked highest with 342 offenders, followed by Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture with 133 offenders. The third city tier was the Hani-Yi Autonomous Prefecture of Honghe and Zhaotong City, with 61 and 52 offenders. The number of offenders in the fourth and fifth level were relatively small, with less than 30. Then, we focused on the county by identifying the hot and cold spots of offenders, which were divided into six confidence intervals at the 99%, 95%, and 90% thresholds. As shown in Fig. 1 b, the habitual residence of offenders was significantly heterogeneous. Among them, eleven counties were the hottest areas of offenders, including Guangnan County, Funing County, Yanshan County, Xichou County, wenshan city, Malipo County, Maguan County, luxi County, Yuanyang County, Yao Autonomous County of Hekou, Jinping Miao, Yao and Dai Autonomous County. Xundian Hui and Yi Autonomous County were the second hot spot area; other areas were insignificant. The cold spot offenders were clustered in Pingba District, Huichuan District, Gulin County, Xishui County, Jiangjin District, Hechuan District, and Wusheng County. Next, we use the same method to analyze the crime location, that is, the places where offenders first began to commit crime. As Fig. 1 c shows, Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture was ranked highest with 388 offenders, followed by Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture with 213 offenders. The third tier of cities was the Hani-Yi Autonomous Prefecture of Honghe, with 104 offenders. The number of offenders in the fourth and fifth level were relatively small, with less than 40. Then, we identified the hot and cold spots where offenders carry out trafficking. As shown in Fig. 1 d, it could be observed that the most alluring areas were distributed in Guangnan County, Funing County, Yanshan County, Xichou County, Malipo County, Maguan County, and Ceheng County, followed by the districts of Qiubei County, luxi county, Xingyi City and Yanyuan County. Xichang City represented the third hottest area. The cold spots where offenders carry out trafficking were not prominent. 4.2 Organizing information by crime script stage 4.2.1 Preparation (The offender with motive) The preparation stage involves the physical condition and psychological motives of the offenders before entering the location of the crime. The occurrence of child trafficking depended on the interaction between the fewer guardians, the motivated offender, and a potential target (Cohen & Felson, 1979 ). When these three elements coincide in space and time, the opportunity for crime increases (Brunei & Barasa, 2017; Neubacher et al., 2019 ). More in detail, offenders looking for favorable opportunities were regarded as motivated offender. The appearance of children who attract offenders is regarded as a suitable target. The absence of guardianship such as the child's parents, grandparents or relatives provides suitable opportunities for motivated offenders. The spatial analysis revealed that the distribution of the offender residence was basically similar to that of the crime location, both concentrated in Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, and the Hani Autonomous Prefecture of Honghe. These regions share a common characteristic: complex and diverse terrain dominated by plateaus and mountains. Agricultural production serves as the primary source of income in these areas, where economic development is generally lagging. Further analysis found that the similar backgrounds participated in the trafficking business in Southwest China; 76.81% of offenders were farmers and unemployed, who had only attended primary school and depend mainly on agricultural production for income. However, frequent natural disasters in rural areas have unemployment of agricultural workers during the cultivation season, reduced their economic income, and seriously affected their livelihoods (Blakeslee and Fishman, 2018 ). In this case, crime increases with certain craved aspects such as the availability and disposability of substance (Sidebottom, 2013 ). Among them, financial enrichment played a dominant role in a motive for committing the crime, the perpetrators were secondary concerned with need (Doorewaard et al., 2015 ). Trafficking children for profit has become a desirable choice for offenders. 4.2.2 Pre-activity (Finding the crime target) The pre-activity stage related to all the actions and decisions taken by offenders prior to the criminal activity. For offenders, the first step in child trafficking was identifying potential targets (child victims). From the above spatial analysis, it is found that habitual residence of offenders and the origin where trafficking occurs tend to overlap. This suggested that offenders usually came from their own village or at least from the surrounding area. Children living in these villages or the surrounding areas became targets for their trafficking. Offenders preferred to target places in proximity to where they resided due to they were familiar with the space or are in it regularly. In rural areas, guardians during the day were usually busy with farm work in the field, and older children stayed at home to take care of young children. Some guardians went to work far away from home and left their children to their grandparents. Because rural infrastructure was poor, they cannot install surveillance cameras in every living area. And the guardians can't keep an eye on the child all the day. In this case, a large number of children without supervision have become the most suitable victims, the area near home seems to be a desirable ‘hunting grounds’ for offenders to carry out the crime undetected. In addition, another interesting finding is that Southwest China is inhabited by many ethnic minorities with various customs and festivals, such as social and recreational festivals, farming activities festivals, annual festivals, and sacrificial festival. During the festival, the surrounding area of the village became a very attractive target area for offenders, because these places were more likely to contain daily activity nodes of significance to children, such as parks, squares and fairs. The frequent outing of children during the day provided exposure targets, producing more trafficking attractors. Meanwhile, offenders can approach and enter these places unhindered in the open. Once successful, they would take the next step to transport the children to a place far from home for sale. 4.2.3 Activity (Trafficking process) The activity stage covers the conduct or completion of criminal activities, involving the interaction between the offender and the victim as well as among the offenders themselves. To understand the contact between offenders and victims, we have counted the means used by offenders. As Fig. 2 a shows, it was found that more than half (61.83%) of offenders usually bought children and then resold them because the profits gained from this way were large enough. 16.45% of guardians acted as offenders, and due to lighter sentences for crimes committed by guardians at the time, selling their children was an attractive option for guardians. 8.82% of offenders used snacks or toys to lure or kidnap younger children on streets or cheat older children in public places by good jobs or marriages, then selling them for profit. 4.92% of offenders bought children as adopted sons or daughters-in-law, and these offenders were usually couples who could not have a child or older men who could not marry. A minority of offenders used violence or other coercive means while trafficking and none of these were guardians of the victim. Child trafficking is a crime that requires coordination among multiple parties who may act as the head, seller, middleman, or transporter, among other roles (Xin & Cai, 2022 ). By counting the number of offenders involved in child trafficking, we roughly classified two types of trafficking groups. One is private transactions by 1–2 members, direct trafficking. As Fig. 2 b shows, only 3.56% of offenders would trafficking children by only one person. 13.25% of offenders carried out trafficking in pairs, including couples, father and son, siblings and relatives, or temporary trafficking groups with strangers. Another is those managed by trafficking groups or networks with more than two members that may not be highly organized and specialized from start to finish. At best, these trafficking groups could be regarded as non-hierarchical organizations with loose members. Offenders worked in small partnerships of 3–5 members, accounting for 56.37%, including neighbors, workers, friends, relatives, and other partners. They appeared to invest most of their time and money in facilitating the transportation and sale of children. Gangs of 6–8 members comprised 10.93%, involving acquaintances and strangers. Significant trafficking gangs with more than nine members accounted for less than 2%, which may be related to the fewer trafficking links, the lower costs and risks. The ‘social ties’ among members play a vital role in coordinating trafficking activities. Child trafficking encompasses several passages, typical steps included acquiring/purchase, transfer, keeping, advertising/introduction and sale (Table 1 ). Moving children across regions into another province requires planning and organization. Trafficking groups need to collaborate along the trafficking step to ensure the eventual delivery of the child. The first step was to acquire the children, often referred to as the purchase phase, the number of offenders accounted for 30.31%, and some working alone to complete this step. The second step pertained to transfer the children, usually called the transportation phase with 10.50% of offenders. The third step involved the keeping phase, the number of offenders accounted for 2.10%. These offenders have been searching for opportunities to engage in matchmaking transactions and take care of receiving and distributing the buyer's payment. The fourth step was the advertising/introduction phase with 26.45% of offenders. The introducers make connections and bargaining with buyers and sellers, often for a small referral fee. The final step was the sale phase, which had the highest number of offenders at 30.65%. Multiple links of offenders were involved in this phase, such as receiving and accompanying the children to destinations and handing them over to buyers. Some offenders even engaged in the entire continuum. Regarding gender, male offenders dominate the trafficking process, accounting for 47.02%, while female offenders account for only 38.80%, mainly engaged in support work[2] . Table 1 The steps of child trafficking Item Acquiring/Purchase phase Transfer phase Keeping phase Advertising/Introduction phase Sale phase Male 15.45% 4.87% 0.67% 12.09% 13.94% Female 10.58% 4.62% 1.01% 8.90% 13.69% Unknown sex 4.28% 1.01% 0.42% 5.46% 3.02% Total 30.31% 10.50% 2.10% 26.45% 30.65% By counting these cases, interprovincial trafficking paths accounted for 83.29% of the observed cases. This suggested that a considerable share of trafficking paths was a long-distance across provinces. We further counted the means of transport by offenders (Fig. 3 ). In short distance transportation within neighboring districts, the cars were the preferred vehicle for offenders, accounting for 51.86%, followed by motorcycles at 6.39%, tricycles accounted for 4.67%. In long-distance transportation across provinces, offenders would prioritize the trains, accounting for 33.69%, followed by buses at 9.03%. offenders rarely fly, accounting for only 0.93%. In order to complete the whole process of trafficking, the offenders usually first take short distances transportation and then transfer to long-distance transportation to reach their destination. Land transportation was the most common way of trafficking. Transportation in Yunnan Province was generally dominated by highway. Most offenders took children on a motorcycle or self-driving car in the source provinces, and then took a bus to the destination province. Some offenders also took the train for a certain part of the journey. Railroad facilities were more developed in Sichuan and Guizhou provinces. Offenders usually took children by cars in the source provinces and then by train to the destination province. 4.2.4 Post-activity (Escape) The post-activity phase refers to the steps required to conceal criminal activities and prevent exposure after offenders have completed all actions. Although long-distance journeys were fraught with operational risks, offenders still use various modalities to transfer children from their places of origin to other destinations (Fig. 4 ). The particular type of transportation used by offenders was highly context specific, and was constrained by local availability and likelihood of avoiding suspicion. After completing illegal transactions at the destination, offenders usually switched and used various means of transportation to escape the destination depending on route and distance the regional characteristics. But they do not immediately return to their original residence. To conceal their tracks and evade being arrested by the police, offenders usually choose other places they consider safe to lie low temporarily, and then return to their residences. 4.3 The decisions of offenders Previous literature pointed out that offenders were more likely to commit crimes near areas where they live (Lammers et al., 2015 ), and such offenders were referred to as marauders. Another finding indicated that offenders tended to leave their residential areas and travel to other areas to commit crimes (Van Daele et al, 2011), and such offenders were usually called commuters. In this study, the process of child trafficking connected the links of the purchase, transfer, keeping, introduction and sale, and offenders usually carried out criminal activities continuously from the source (near residential areas) to the destination (far from residential areas). It was obvious that offender played both the role of a marauder and a commuter in child trafficking. Inspired by rational choice theory that crime is a behavioral decision made by a criminal after a sound evaluation of benefit, risk, and cost rather than an impulsive and temporary crime (Clarke & Felson, 1993 ). Child trafficking was a premeditated crime. The decisions made by offenders at different stages depend on three factors: the ease of achieving a target, expected risk and expected profits (Fig. 4 ). At the preparation stage, the expected profits were a key factor influencing the offenders' motive for committing the crime. At the pre-activity stage, offenders appeared to exhibit a preference for targeting areas that were closer to their residential area. An important point to appreciate when considering this was that these places were usually also close to the nodes of children's daily activities. Their decision depended not only on the availability of ‘good’ or ‘suitable’ targets, but also on the limited spatial awareness of offenders. Offenders may not consider excessive benefits but rather how to easily identify suitable victims and place them in a low-risk situation where they go undetected. Offenders were often locals or street-level operators and were very familiar with the communities in which they traffic. They were likely to be involved with child trafficking over the long term and experienced. They can easily find or obtain their target in a short time or with minimal expense. That is to say, offenders' knowledge of these areas affects how they perceive rewards, efforts and risks. At the activity stage, offenders tended to operate like a small gang of three to five persons and have loose and fluid structures. Such groups were mostly formed by low level and amateur individuals. They seem to have clear divisions of labor in different trafficking links, but in fact, they operated in fragments. Because most of the connections among these offenders were ‘opportunistic’ rather than ‘systematic’ (Lavorgna, 2019 ). For instance, some offenders may pass on children (victims) to middleman contacts who then become involved as recruiters or advertisers in moving the children to the destination for sale, ceasing involvement in subsequent stages. Another experienced offender participated in the entire child trafficking process from origin to destination. In the process of child trafficking, the risk of the seller being arrested was much higher than that of the buyer. Therefore, by reducing the number of people involved in the trafficking process, offenders have been able to lower such costs and minimize the risks, and ultimately maximize benefits. The pattern was different from drug crimes, which were larger, more structured entities, often specializing in drug trafficking continuum (Manzi & Calderoni, 2024 ). Although offenders tended to commit crimes closer to home area, once they find their targets, they need to move the victims to other places for sale. Their spatial decision making also appeared to be influenced by the route and distance from their home area to potential destinations, as predicted. After evaluating the economic value and constraints, offenders choose the ‘right’ means of transportation to move children. For instance, offenders preferred to move children by car in short-distance transportation, while they would prioritize the trains, followed by buses in long-distance transportation. On the way to transfer, offenders also took advantage of the characteristics of the spatial blind area caused by the terrain conditions to hide their whereabouts, thereby reducing the risk of detection. For offenders, although traveling a longer distance incurs higher costs, the benefits they gain will be greater. Higher earnings might compensate for the cost of travel. Therefore, if the move has more success, the effort for offenders have put in to get there could be worthwhile, which is a rational response. This crime pattern seems to have a different logic from other crimes: maximizing profits and travel effectiveness are the priorities for offenders rather than minimizing costs and travel. At the post-activity, offenders would immediately flee their destinations, but they seldom return to their residences via the same route. This behavior is mainly influenced by the risk of being arrested and the cost of being sentenced. 5 Discussion and Conclusion This study aimed to provide a detailed understanding of spatial patterns of child trafficking, with particular focus on the operational steps and rational decisions of offenders. ArcGIS for spatial analysis can pinpoint the residence of offenders and crime locations down to specific cities, counties, or even villages areas. The mean, group and transportation involved in trafficking process were identified by using the crime script analysis. The results showed that habitual residence of offenders and the origin where trafficking occurs tend to overlap in space. The pattern observed could be the result of offenders being more likely to commit crime (seek targets) closer to their homes which was also near the areas where children live. This finding confirmed that most crimes proposed by the crime pattern theory occur in areas close to home areas, with criminal activity diminishes as distance increases. Loose organizational structures consisting of 3 to 5 persons were the most common crime groups in child trafficking. Offenders usually used various means of transportation to move children from the source to the destination, such as cars, buses, trains or tricycles. Child trafficking spanned a continuum involving the acquiring/purchase, transfer, keeping, advertising/introduction and sale. Offenders made decisions in different phases of child trafficking and the reasons for doing so depended on whether it was at the onset, progression or end of trafficking. In the trafficking onset, the decisions were related to what the offenders expected of the target (child). The awareness space played an important part in shaping their target choices. In the progression of the trafficking, predictable and generous returns played a significant role. After the trafficking ends, until the offender leaves the destination, the decisions made by the offenders were mainly related to the cost of punishment after being arrested. These new discoveries have not received much attention in previous studies. Compared to other types of crime, the study of child trafficking in the Chinese context enhances the variety of research areas concerning criminology of place. This study used crime script analysis to break up the process of child trafficking into distinct stages. This practice not only provides detailed information on each separate step in the trafficking process but also helps us better understand the motives, actions and decisions of offenders, offering significant assistance for law enforcement intervention. Addressing child trafficking is a complex and challenging task that requires coordinated efforts among multiple stakeholders across departments and regions. The interventions on the offenders should be aimed at crackdown on operational process in different phases than just a certain area. The current findings indicated that desirable targets for combating child trafficking would be the activities stage, especially in the purchasing and selling phrases. Offenders involved in these two phases occupy a large share, and they played a pivotal role in both the source regions (supply market) and destination regions (demand market) of child trafficking. Intervention measures targeting the source areas could include adjusted or optimizing for infrastructure layout or spatial function in rural, and increasing the number of surveillance facilities to reduce the chances of committing crimes. It may also include increasing investment in agricultural production and educational resources, improve the economic income and educational level of local residents, making child trafficking less attractive for offenders for their activities. Efforts to crack down on destinations areas should enhance the registration and screening of migrant populations, including children and adults. At the same time, the enforcement of criminal penalties against buyers must be strictly implemented to increase the cost and risk of crimes. Next are the intermediaries involved in the advertising or introduction phase. Without their facilitation, sellers might struggle to find buyers in need and would likely fail to successfully sell the children. Therefore, interventions targeting these offenders are expected to have a significant impact. Finally, offenders in the transportation stage played a significant role. It is suggested that inspections at transportation hubs such as railway stations, bus stations and gas stations be strengthened to increase the difficulty and risk of committing crimes and prevent victims from being further transferred from the source. It is worth noting that nowadays, with the popularization of online platforms, child trafficking has provided a novel method of transaction, breaking the regular modes of trafficking offline. Some transaction processes may be completed online, such as on social software like Wechat, Microblog, TikTok and Kwai. Some new strategies should be developing by law enforcement agencies, which may involve the use of advanced technologies, such as global position system, face recognition technology, blockchain analysis tools to track information associated with child trafficking on these platforms, in order to disrupt crime networks operating on these platforms. In summary, only by considering these traditional and novel types of transactions in combination, it may be possible to reduce the harms related to child trafficking. Inevitably, there are some limitations present in our study. All data of offenders used in this study were obtained from China Judgments Online, mainly for criminal cases in the past 20 years. Although the Ministry of Public Security prioritizes investigating child trafficking, it is still a difficult task to detect every case. Not all court documents relating to the trials of child trafficking were uploaded to the website. One side, some special cases of trafficking did not go through the legal system and were considered inappropriate to publish online (Zhang, 2006 ). On the other side, some courts do not strictly comply with publication requirements to upload trafficking cases online. Therefore, an inevitable problem is considered to be sample selection in the study of trafficking, and researchers should be cautious about potential bias (Tyldum & Brunovskis, 2005 ). It is suggested that future research should collect more and larger samples through field investigation or in-depth interviews. The subsequent research should focus on criminals who have been released from prison to further reveal whether they have the motivation and actions to repeat crimes. Declarations Author Contribution Z. wrote the main manuscript text.L. provided fund support.G. and J. prepared figures 1-2.L. and W. processed the research data. References Arsovska, J., Kostakos, P.A., (2008). 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Child Abuse & Neglect, 140, 106124. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chiabu.2023.106124. Zhou S., Xie W., Song G., & Liu L. (2017) The Spatial Differentiation Effect of Land Use on Street Robbery: A Case Study in H City, China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 37(6):885-894. https://doi.org/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.06.010 Footnotes https://www.mps.gov.cn/n2254098/n4904352/c9982217/content.html Note: Totals do not equal 100%, because the gender of some traffickers cannot be known. Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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16:11:47","extension":"html","order_by":31,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":146251,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"earlyproof.html","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7717431/v1/6e855e9a36747fd0c6269757.html"},{"id":94215406,"identity":"297f426c-b551-4001-8064-4dab931dc1ea","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-23 16:27:46","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":494515,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe spatial distribution of the place of residence (a-b) and the place of crime (c-d)\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure.1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7717431/v1/ada31097540c23ab2d1e33a7.png"},{"id":94214524,"identity":"55ef67b8-4b0b-4745-8137-c3fc32b2b555","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-23 16:11:46","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":116236,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe trafficking means (a) and groups of offenders (b)\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure.2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7717431/v1/206fd85326a797f9afc1216b.png"},{"id":94214527,"identity":"f711a249-44de-4749-8278-e6b241f5eb49","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-23 16:11:46","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":92832,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe transportation of offenders\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure.3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7717431/v1/4be42f28bcef7a3c5572afad.png"},{"id":94214530,"identity":"ddc6cdfa-71bb-415c-bc68-8e4e73a97c1b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-23 16:11:46","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":703085,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe operational process and decision of offenders in child trafficking\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure.4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7717431/v1/b4a625e8f43d138702469254.png"},{"id":100356343,"identity":"2f26b580-515f-420d-9fd0-a06d7b03f68f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:03:53","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2188729,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7717431/v1/2b97831e-d23f-4212-996f-949a23f5874e.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Investigating the operational process and decision-making of child trafficking in Southwest China","fulltext":[{"header":"1 Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eChild trafficking is one of the most serious crime worldwide. It not only causes irreparable trauma for children and their families, but also poses a serious threat to the sustainable development of society. Child trafficking in China peaked around the 1990s (Li et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR35\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e; Li et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e). In order to curb this phenomenon, Ministry of Public Security of the People's Republic of China have launched a nationwide special campaign to combat the trafficking in women and children. According to the latest report, more than 550 cases of trafficking were detected, and a group of suspects involved in human trafficking have been arrested in 2024.[1]\u003ca class=\"FNLink\" href=\"#Fn1\" id=\"#FNLinkFn1\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003e It indicated that the number of child trafficking remains at a high level. At present, the anti-trafficking campaign has driven child trafficking further underground, taking on a highly \u0026lsquo;clandestine\u0026rsquo; and covert nature. It is a challenging task to understand and solve the issue, which not only creates obstacles for China's criminal justice system, but also poses a threat to public safety and social development. Within this, any attempt to understand and regulate child trafficking should involve spatial analysis and operational process, the decisions made by offenders in different trafficking links are also the most critical and elusive part of this issue. A more nuanced analysis of trafficking from a geographical perspective, has been suggested by scholars to increase scrutiny and reflection on anti-trafficking activities (Blazek et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e; McGrath \u0026amp; Watson, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR43\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eScholars have been focusing on the spatial analysis of crime for some time, and some new technical methods in geography have been widely applied to explore this issue ( Liu et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR37\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e; Liu et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR38\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e;). A number of interdisciplinary theories have been proposed to explain the observed spatial decision-making patterns of offenders (Zhao \u0026amp; Zhang, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR62\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e; Bernasco et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR5\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). Attempts to explain vary, and scholars have comprehensively considered various mechanisms that may affect the occurrence of crimes at a particular location (Kalsi et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR29\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2025\u003c/span\u003e; Wang \u0026amp; Li, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR55\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). However, many studies have taken into account the spatial patterns of acquisitive crimes such as burglary and robbery, but few have considered patterns for other types of crime, such as child trafficking. Child trafficking, as a serious crime in China, not only had a distinct temporal feature but also involved the spatial movement between the victim and the offender in different regions (Zhou et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR65\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e). The crime is quite different from residential burglary and street robbery. Residential burglary usually occurred in unoccupied dwelling and was a crime of stealth (Long et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR39\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Robbery crimes were usually committed on the street, where the risk of being discovered during the crime may be higher (Zhou et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR66\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e). In contrast, although child trafficking may occur in residential areas or on the streets, there were significant differences in terms of criminal targets, spatial distribution of opportunities, and operational process. Studying different types of crime pattern is important for understanding the roles of relevant stakeholders in the operational process, but also crucial for analyzing how offenders make rational decisions in space.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe aim of this study is to contribute to our knowledge on the operational steps involved in child trafficking and the decisions made by offenders in different phrases. Southwest China was generally called the origin province for child trafficking and a gathering place for various offenders (Xia et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR56\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). Historically, Southwest China has a complex location, bordering by lower-income countries such as Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar. In addition, Southwest China is inhabited by many ethnic minorities, with distinctive customs and festivals, and the population composition is very diverse. These obvious differences in geographical and demographic characteristics were reflected in the activities of child trafficking. However, we know little about these traffickers or their illicit activities. Unlike previous studies, in addition to focusing on spatial patterns of crime, this study provides a more detail analysis of operational process of child trafficking. The use of spatial analysis methods allows us to understand whether the locations where offenders chose to commit crimes are close to the distribution of their habitual residences. Using criminal scripts to analyze whether offenders usually commit crimes alone or in groups? Which means of transportation do offenders prefer to take to transfer child victims? What phases do traffickers go through to achieve the entire trafficking process? In addition, the application of relevant theories provide a strong support for understanding this issue. Crime pattern theory is used to explain the spatial pattern of offenders at the macro scale, while the rational choice theory is employed to elucidate the motives and attitudes of offenders at the micro scale, paying particular attention to how offenders make targeting decisions at different trafficking links. The findings are expected to provide insightful clues for academia, government and the public to understand this issue better.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe study is organized as follows. The first part of the article reviews relevant theoretical perspectives and summarize previous findings, providing readers with an understanding of the research on child trafficking in China. It then describes the data and methods used. In the third part, the article focuses on the spatial pattern and operational process of child trafficking, as well as how offenders make rational decisions at different stages. Lastly, the author summarizes the findings and proposes several feasible strategies to intervene in the activities of offenders involved in child trafficking.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2. Literature review","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.1 A brief review of crime pattern theory\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eCrime pattern theory holds that crimes are not randomly distributed in places but rather tend to cluster geographically (Brantingham \u0026amp; Brantingham, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1995\u003c/span\u003e). Whether there is a criminal motive or not, some places where a large number of people converge, such as shopping malls, sports stadiums, transportation hubs, etc., may lead to a high volume of criminal opportunities. Therefore, these places were usually regarded as crime generators (Kinney et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2008\u003c/span\u003e). Another areas were more likely to attract motivated offenders, such as bar districts, drugselling spots, prostitution areas, which were well-known for providing opportunities for crime and are usually referred to as crime attractors (Kurland et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR31\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e). These places were more likely to generate the creation of crime hot spots and crime corridors by allowing the spatial awareness of offenders to intersect with that of potential victims (Brantingham et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). Awareness space is the places where a person regularly or recently activities, involving their habitual routes between these places and area within visual range of these places and routes (Bernasco, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eCrime pattern theory argues that crime occurs when the awareness space of motivated offenders and attractive criminal opportunities overlap in time and space (Johnson \u0026amp; Summers, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). Offenders are most likely to commit crimes in familiar areas where they have better practical knowledge, including familiar with routes and better knowledge of opportunities. In contrast, offenders rarely venture into unknown areas to commit crimes or unexplored environments to seek new opportunities, which is related to awareness space (Rengert \u0026amp; Wasilchick, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR46\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2000\u003c/span\u003e). In these places, offenders can make the least effort to locate desirable criminal opportunities, thereby reducing the risks related to criminal involvement, which is a seemingly rational decision made by offenders based on cost-effectiveness. Scholars have utilized detailed arrest data provided by the police to analyze the patterns, processes, and mechanisms of crime from a geographical perspective, focusing on aspects such as the travel distances, spatial decision-making and repeat crime of offenders (Van Daele et al., 2011; Bernasco et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR5\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e; Johnson et al., 2015). Research on burglary cases has found that burglars must know a location in order to choose it as a target for burglary. The awareness spaces of burglars not only included their former home locations, but may also involves other former anchor points, such as workplaces, schools or friends' homes (Johnson \u0026amp; Summers, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). In the analysis of property crime, it seems obvious that outbound offending frequently occurs in affluent target areas and near motorways, so as to reduce their relative transportation costs during the offence process (Van Daele et al, 2011).\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.2 A brief review of rational choice theory\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe spatial decision-making of offenders is a relatively rational process, which is the result of weighing among benefits, costs and risks (Cornish,1986). The choice of offenders not only depends on the number of potential victims in the area, but also is related to the availability of \u0026lsquo;desirable\u0026rsquo; or \u0026lsquo;suitable\u0026rsquo; targets (Bernasco et al, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). In order to find suitable targets for crime, motivated offenders must go to unguarded, vulnerable, or unguarded places to identify targets carrying valuable or freely disposable goods. According to rational choice theory, the behaviour of a person making decision to commit crime is related to her or his rational weighing of the costs and benefits of the crime (Broadhurst et al, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). The benefits of crime may be related to financial gain, social status, or other personal rewards, while the costs a series of punitive measures, such as fines, imprisonment, or damage to one\u0026rsquo;s reputation (Broadhurst et al, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). The benefits of crime may include financial gain, social status, or other personal rewards, while the costs may include fines, imprisonment, or damage to one\u0026rsquo;s reputation (Broadhurst et al, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). It is evident that the lower the cost and risk of crime, the greater the potential reward, and the more likely people are to engage in crime.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eRational choice theory holds that individuals are motivated by their own interests, they always tend to pursue the maximization of benefits and the minimization of costs (Engeler \u0026amp; Balietti, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Among them, accessibility is an important factor affecting the cost of crime in areas, the higher the accessibility, the lower the cost and the easier it is to attract offenders (Davies \u0026amp; Johnson, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). To minimize costs, the spatial decisions of offenders tend towards neighboring points (Johnson et al, 2015). Because offenders are familiar with the areas, nodes and paths near their homes, it not only helps them choose suitable targets (Bernasco et al, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e), but also enables them to hide, evade or avoid being discovered. Scholars obtained data by random interviews with imprisoned or arrested offenders, using criminal investigation or social psychology methods to reveal, prevent and confirm the means and decision of offenders (Cook et al, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR15\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e; Lindegaard et al, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR36\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). A study explored arms trafficking by organized crime groups in the Balkans (Arsovska \u0026amp; Kostakos, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2008\u003c/span\u003e). The demand for illegal goods or services and the pursuit of financial gain were the main target driving the choices made by criminal syndicate. Another study found that drug trafficking is a rational choice, especially on cryptomarkets where the benefits outweigh the potential costs, and a few entrepreneurs who have organized crime groups engaging in the voluminous drug sales to minimize risk (Sankul \u0026amp; Saira, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR48\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023\u003c/span\u003e). Nonetheless, the fact remains that the benefits outweigh the risks in the drug trafficking market (Demant et al, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR19\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). At present, due to the difficulty in obtaining criminal data, the risks and benefits of offenders in child trafficking are rarely concerned, and it is urgent to carry out relevant work to solve this thorny problem.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec5\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.3 Research on child trafficking\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn fact, child trafficking is a complex process that is widely considered to be related to the source, transit, and destination geographies, involving temporal and spatial changes between offenders (traffickers) and victims (children) (Zhou et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR63\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). Spatial analysis targeting these specific source, transit and demand destinations is crucial (e.g., trafficking hotspots, trafficking routes, trafficking networks). A latest study revealed that child trafficking was spatially clustered at spatial scales ranging from provinces to zones within cities (Huang \u0026amp; Weng, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e; Li et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR35\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). Specifically, the origin provinces have a huge impact on transfer paths of child trafficking (Yao et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR60\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Southwest China has been identified as the key origin of child trafficking, which served as a supplier (Li et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR35\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). And eastern China was the primary destination that showed a high frequency of child purchases (Xin \u0026amp; Cai, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR57\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). Non-capital cities were playing an important role in the national trafficking network (Huang \u0026amp; Weng, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). Further narrowing down the scale to micro locations revealed that child trafficking usually occurred in open spaces or facilities, including rural doorsteps, streets and alleys, parks, squares or fairs and so on (Zhou et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR65\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023a\u003c/span\u003e). Undoubtedly, such efforts have improved understanding of child trafficking from the perspective of geography, which have contributed to relevant authorities take a more detailed and targeted response. Surprisingly, most of these studies focus on victims (children) to identify key areas. The spatial distribution of offenders (traffickers) has been neglected to some extent.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eChild trafficking involved physical contact between the offender and the target in space. \u0026lsquo;Space\u0026rsquo; not only includes a physical place, but also extends to the network of interaction between offenders in different links (Jin et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e). Beyond insight about the spatial pattern, interventions to reduce harms from child trafficking also need to understand the connections among the relevant stakeholders (e.g., sellers, middlemen, and buyers) across the trafficking process, as well as the rational decisions made by offenders in different trafficking links. At present, the literature on legal judgments of offenders and anti-trafficking operations appears to be increasing (Xin \u0026amp; Cai, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR58\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e; Wang, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR54\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). Especially the discussions on the sentencing standards for offenders with different roles such as sellers, middlemen, and buyers have become more intense (Xing, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR59\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e; Jiang \u0026amp; S\u0026aacute;nchez-Barricart, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR26\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). These efforts stem from the fields of law and criminology. Although methodologically interesting, the existing studies focuses on information about where crimes occur, without reference to where offenders reside. It remains unknown whether the crime location is close to the residences of offenders in space. There is significantly less literature characterizing motivations, attitudes, behaviors of offenders in the whole process of child trafficking. In response to the call for an in-depth study on trafficking from a geographical perspective, this study not only provides a spatial analysis of trafficking by means of GIS mapping, but also extends its focus to the operational steps involved in child trafficking and the decisions made by offenders in different phrases.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec6\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.4 Crime script analysis\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eCrime scripts can systematically analyze each step required to commit a crime, highlighting the sequence of decision points within an individual's experience (Cornish \u0026amp; Clarke, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2002\u003c/span\u003e). It is widely applied to crimes such as pickpocketing, burglary, and drug manufacturing to analyze criminal activities involving individuals or groups. Cornish (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1994\u003c/span\u003e) divided the crime script of predatory crimes into nine stages: including preparation, entry, precondition, instrumental precondition, instrumental initiation, instrumental actualization, doing, postcondition, and exit scenes. Child trafficking is a complex process involving a series of actions, offender may make decisions at each step. In this context, crime scripts provide important insights into the essential steps required for the child trafficking to take place and identifying how and where to intervene. Given the significant differences in stages and number of scripts among different types of crimes, the results may eventually be biased. Therefore, based on the reference to existing research (van der Bruggen \u0026amp; Blokland, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR53\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e), we have adjusted the exact number of stages to fit the crime under scrutiny in this study. The crime script was divided into four stages : preparation (the offender with motive), pre-activity (finding the crime target), activity (trafficking process), and post-activity (escape). The structure of these four stages corresponds to the process of premeditated child trafficking in this study.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"3 Data and method","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec8\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e3.1 Data\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn this study, we utilized the database from China Judgments Online (\u003cspan class=\"ExternalRef\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"RefSource\"\u003ehttps://wenshu.court.gov.cn/\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan address=\"https://wenshu.court.gov.cn/\" targettype=\"URL\" class=\"RefTarget\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e), the official platform publishing judicial documents from all levels of courts in China. Such court documents of trials are legal and authentic (Supreme People\u0026rsquo;s Court, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR50\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e), and researchers can access the publicly available data online. Using the keyword \u0026lsquo;child trafficking\u0026rsquo;, we downloaded all the related first-instance judgments issued by the courts in Southwest China. By January 2021, 1225 offenders were identified in the decisions of Southwest China. In these cases, 657 offenders were from Yunnan Province, 158 were from Guizhou Province, 382 were from Sichuan Province, and 28 were from Chongqing City. We read every judgment and manually coded all the information on offenders, including the date of birth, gender, age, province of origin, level of education, the trial date of the court document, date, price, and purpose of the transaction.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec9\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e3.2 Method\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eHot spot analysis and crime script are the key methods in this study. Hotspot analysis is a suitable analytical tool to reveal the spatial pattern of child trafficking (Zhou et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR64\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2023b\u003c/span\u003e). The ArcGIS 10.2 is used in this work to perform the hot spot analysis. This method evaluates whether child trafficking is significantly clustered and maps the habitual residence of offenders and the place where the offenders committed the crime. Meanwhile, crime script is a method used to analyze the critical steps of child trafficking (Cornish, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1994\u003c/span\u003e). According to the different stages of the crime script, the criminal behavior in child trafficking is divided into various stages. Once the script describes the steps of the crime, one can pinpoint identify the specific opportunities related to the crime and thereby design appropriate situational measure to prevent occurrence of the crime.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"4 Results","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec11\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e4.1 Spatial pattern of offenders\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn this study, we used ArcGIS10.2 to visualize the habitual residence of offenders in Southwest China. The number of traffickers at the city level was divided into five groups in this study (in order of decreasing number of offenders). As Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003ea shows, Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture were ranked highest with 342 offenders, followed by Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture with 133 offenders. The third city tier was the Hani-Yi Autonomous Prefecture of Honghe and Zhaotong City, with 61 and 52 offenders. The number of offenders in the fourth and fifth level were relatively small, with less than 30. Then, we focused on the county by identifying the hot and cold spots of offenders, which were divided into six confidence intervals at the 99%, 95%, and 90% thresholds. As shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003eb, the habitual residence of offenders was significantly heterogeneous. Among them, eleven counties were the hottest areas of offenders, including Guangnan County, Funing County, Yanshan County, Xichou County, wenshan city, Malipo County, Maguan County, luxi County, Yuanyang County, Yao Autonomous County of Hekou, Jinping Miao, Yao and Dai Autonomous County. Xundian Hui and Yi Autonomous County were the second hot spot area; other areas were insignificant. The cold spot offenders were clustered in Pingba District, Huichuan District, Gulin County, Xishui County, Jiangjin District, Hechuan District, and Wusheng County.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eNext, we use the same method to analyze the crime location, that is, the places where offenders first began to commit crime. As Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003ec shows, Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture was ranked highest with 388 offenders, followed by Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture with 213 offenders. The third tier of cities was the Hani-Yi Autonomous Prefecture of Honghe, with 104 offenders. The number of offenders in the fourth and fifth level were relatively small, with less than 40. Then, we identified the hot and cold spots where offenders carry out trafficking. As shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003ed, it could be observed that the most alluring areas were distributed in Guangnan County, Funing County, Yanshan County, Xichou County, Malipo County, Maguan County, and Ceheng County, followed by the districts of Qiubei County, luxi county, Xingyi City and Yanyuan County. Xichang City represented the third hottest area. The cold spots where offenders carry out trafficking were not prominent.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec12\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e4.2 Organizing information by crime script stage\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec13\" class=\"Section3\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e4.2.1 Preparation (The offender with motive)\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe preparation stage involves the physical condition and psychological motives of the offenders before entering the location of the crime. The occurrence of child trafficking depended on the interaction between the fewer guardians, the motivated offender, and a potential target (Cohen \u0026amp; Felson, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1979\u003c/span\u003e). When these three elements coincide in space and time, the opportunity for crime increases (Brunei \u0026amp; Barasa, 2017; Neubacher et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR45\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). More in detail, offenders looking for favorable opportunities were regarded as motivated offender. The appearance of children who attract offenders is regarded as a suitable target. The absence of guardianship such as the child's parents, grandparents or relatives provides suitable opportunities for motivated offenders. The spatial analysis revealed that the distribution of the offender residence was basically similar to that of the crime location, both concentrated in Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, and the Hani Autonomous Prefecture of Honghe. These regions share a common characteristic: complex and diverse terrain dominated by plateaus and mountains. Agricultural production serves as the primary source of income in these areas, where economic development is generally lagging. Further analysis found that the similar backgrounds participated in the trafficking business in Southwest China; 76.81% of offenders were farmers and unemployed, who had only attended primary school and depend mainly on agricultural production for income. However, frequent natural disasters in rural areas have unemployment of agricultural workers during the cultivation season, reduced their economic income, and seriously affected their livelihoods (Blakeslee and Fishman, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). In this case, crime increases with certain craved aspects such as the availability and disposability of substance (Sidebottom, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR49\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). Among them, financial enrichment played a dominant role in a motive for committing the crime, the perpetrators were secondary concerned with need (Doorewaard et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). Trafficking children for profit has become a desirable choice for offenders.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec14\" class=\"Section3\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e4.2.2 Pre-activity (Finding the crime target)\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe pre-activity stage related to all the actions and decisions taken by offenders prior to the criminal activity. For offenders, the first step in child trafficking was identifying potential targets (child victims). From the above spatial analysis, it is found that habitual residence of offenders and the origin where trafficking occurs tend to overlap. This suggested that offenders usually came from their own village or at least from the surrounding area. Children living in these villages or the surrounding areas became targets for their trafficking. Offenders preferred to target places in proximity to where they resided due to they were familiar with the space or are in it regularly. In rural areas, guardians during the day were usually busy with farm work in the field, and older children stayed at home to take care of young children. Some guardians went to work far away from home and left their children to their grandparents. Because rural infrastructure was poor, they cannot install surveillance cameras in every living area. And the guardians can't keep an eye on the child all the day. In this case, a large number of children without supervision have become the most suitable victims, the area near home seems to be a desirable \u0026lsquo;hunting grounds\u0026rsquo; for offenders to carry out the crime undetected. In addition, another interesting finding is that Southwest China is inhabited by many ethnic minorities with various customs and festivals, such as social and recreational festivals, farming activities festivals, annual festivals, and sacrificial festival. During the festival, the surrounding area of the village became a very attractive target area for offenders, because these places were more likely to contain daily activity nodes of significance to children, such as parks, squares and fairs. The frequent outing of children during the day provided exposure targets, producing more trafficking attractors. Meanwhile, offenders can approach and enter these places unhindered in the open. Once successful, they would take the next step to transport the children to a place far from home for sale.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec15\" class=\"Section3\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e4.2.3 Activity (Trafficking process)\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe activity stage covers the conduct or completion of criminal activities, involving the interaction between the offender and the victim as well as among the offenders themselves. To understand the contact between offenders and victims, we have counted the means used by offenders. As Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003ea shows, it was found that more than half (61.83%) of offenders usually bought children and then resold them because the profits gained from this way were large enough. 16.45% of guardians acted as offenders, and due to lighter sentences for crimes committed by guardians at the time, selling their children was an attractive option for guardians. 8.82% of offenders used snacks or toys to lure or kidnap younger children on streets or cheat older children in public places by good jobs or marriages, then selling them for profit. 4.92% of offenders bought children as adopted sons or daughters-in-law, and these offenders were usually couples who could not have a child or older men who could not marry. A minority of offenders used violence or other coercive means while trafficking and none of these were guardians of the victim.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eChild trafficking is a crime that requires coordination among multiple parties who may act as the head, seller, middleman, or transporter, among other roles (Xin \u0026amp; Cai, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR58\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). By counting the number of offenders involved in child trafficking, we roughly classified two types of trafficking groups. One is private transactions by 1\u0026ndash;2 members, direct trafficking. As Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003eb shows, only 3.56% of offenders would trafficking children by only one person. 13.25% of offenders carried out trafficking in pairs, including couples, father and son, siblings and relatives, or temporary trafficking groups with strangers. Another is those managed by trafficking groups or networks with more than two members that may not be highly organized and specialized from start to finish. At best, these trafficking groups could be regarded as non-hierarchical organizations with loose members. Offenders worked in small partnerships of 3\u0026ndash;5 members, accounting for 56.37%, including neighbors, workers, friends, relatives, and other partners. They appeared to invest most of their time and money in facilitating the transportation and sale of children. Gangs of 6\u0026ndash;8 members comprised 10.93%, involving acquaintances and strangers. Significant trafficking gangs with more than nine members accounted for less than 2%, which may be related to the fewer trafficking links, the lower costs and risks. The \u0026lsquo;social ties\u0026rsquo; among members play a vital role in coordinating trafficking activities.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eChild trafficking encompasses several passages, typical steps included acquiring/purchase, transfer, keeping, advertising/introduction and sale (Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). Moving children across regions into another province requires planning and organization. Trafficking groups need to collaborate along the trafficking step to ensure the eventual delivery of the child. The first step was to acquire the children, often referred to as the purchase phase, the number of offenders accounted for 30.31%, and some working alone to complete this step. The second step pertained to transfer the children, usually called the transportation phase with 10.50% of offenders. The third step involved the keeping phase, the number of offenders accounted for 2.10%. These offenders have been searching for opportunities to engage in matchmaking transactions and take care of receiving and distributing the buyer's payment. The fourth step was the advertising/introduction phase with 26.45% of offenders. The introducers make connections and bargaining with buyers and sellers, often for a small referral fee. The final step was the sale phase, which had the highest number of offenders at 30.65%. Multiple links of offenders were involved in this phase, such as receiving and accompanying the children to destinations and handing them over to buyers. Some offenders even engaged in the entire continuum. Regarding gender, male offenders dominate the trafficking process, accounting for 47.02%, while female offenders account for only 38.80%, mainly engaged in support work[2]\u003ca class=\"FNLink\" href=\"#Fn2\" id=\"#FNLinkFn2\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e\u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe steps of child trafficking\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/caption\u003e\u003ccolgroup cols=\"6\"\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c6\" colnum=\"6\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cthead\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eItem\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eAcquiring/Purchase phase\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eTransfer phase\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eKeeping phase\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eAdvertising/Introduction phase\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eSale phase\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/th\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/thead\u003e\u003ctbody\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eMale\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e15.45%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e4.87%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.67%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e12.09%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e13.94%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eFemale\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e10.58%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e4.62%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e1.01%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e8.90%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e13.69%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eUnknown sex\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e4.28%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e1.01%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e0.42%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e5.46%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e3.02%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eTotal\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e30.31%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e10.50%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e2.10%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e26.45%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e30.65%\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e\u003c/tbody\u003e\u003c/colgroup\u003e\u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eBy counting these cases, interprovincial trafficking paths accounted for 83.29% of the observed cases. This suggested that a considerable share of trafficking paths was a long-distance across provinces. We further counted the means of transport by offenders (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e). In short distance transportation within neighboring districts, the cars were the preferred vehicle for offenders, accounting for 51.86%, followed by motorcycles at 6.39%, tricycles accounted for 4.67%. In long-distance transportation across provinces, offenders would prioritize the trains, accounting for 33.69%, followed by buses at 9.03%. offenders rarely fly, accounting for only 0.93%. In order to complete the whole process of trafficking, the offenders usually first take short distances transportation and then transfer to long-distance transportation to reach their destination. Land transportation was the most common way of trafficking. Transportation in Yunnan Province was generally dominated by highway. Most offenders took children on a motorcycle or self-driving car in the source provinces, and then took a bus to the destination province. Some offenders also took the train for a certain part of the journey. Railroad facilities were more developed in Sichuan and Guizhou provinces. Offenders usually took children by cars in the source provinces and then by train to the destination province.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec16\" class=\"Section3\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e4.2.4 Post-activity (Escape)\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe post-activity phase refers to the steps required to conceal criminal activities and prevent exposure after offenders have completed all actions. Although long-distance journeys were fraught with operational risks, offenders still use various modalities to transfer children from their places of origin to other destinations (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e). The particular type of transportation used by offenders was highly context specific, and was constrained by local availability and likelihood of avoiding suspicion. After completing illegal transactions at the destination, offenders usually switched and used various means of transportation to escape the destination depending on route and distance the regional characteristics. But they do not immediately return to their original residence. To conceal their tracks and evade being arrested by the police, offenders usually choose other places they consider safe to lie low temporarily, and then return to their residences.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec17\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e4.3 The decisions of offenders\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003ePrevious literature pointed out that offenders were more likely to commit crimes near areas where they live (Lammers et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR32\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e), and such offenders were referred to as marauders. Another finding indicated that offenders tended to leave their residential areas and travel to other areas to commit crimes (Van Daele et al, 2011), and such offenders were usually called commuters. In this study, the process of child trafficking connected the links of the purchase, transfer, keeping, introduction and sale, and offenders usually carried out criminal activities continuously from the source (near residential areas) to the destination (far from residential areas). It was obvious that offender played both the role of a marauder and a commuter in child trafficking. Inspired by rational choice theory that crime is a behavioral decision made by a criminal after a sound evaluation of benefit, risk, and cost rather than an impulsive and temporary crime (Clarke \u0026amp; Felson, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR13\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1993\u003c/span\u003e). Child trafficking was a premeditated crime. The decisions made by offenders at different stages depend on three factors: the ease of achieving a target, expected risk and expected profits (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e). At the preparation stage, the expected profits were a key factor influencing the offenders' motive for committing the crime.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAt the pre-activity stage, offenders appeared to exhibit a preference for targeting areas that were closer to their residential area. An important point to appreciate when considering this was that these places were usually also close to the nodes of children's daily activities. Their decision depended not only on the availability of \u0026lsquo;good\u0026rsquo; or \u0026lsquo;suitable\u0026rsquo; targets, but also on the limited spatial awareness of offenders. Offenders may not consider excessive benefits but rather how to easily identify suitable victims and place them in a low-risk situation where they go undetected. Offenders were often locals or street-level operators and were very familiar with the communities in which they traffic. They were likely to be involved with child trafficking over the long term and experienced. They can easily find or obtain their target in a short time or with minimal expense. That is to say, offenders' knowledge of these areas affects how they perceive rewards, efforts and risks.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAt the activity stage, offenders tended to operate like a small gang of three to five persons and have loose and fluid structures. Such groups were mostly formed by low level and amateur individuals. They seem to have clear divisions of labor in different trafficking links, but in fact, they operated in fragments. Because most of the connections among these offenders were \u0026lsquo;opportunistic\u0026rsquo; rather than \u0026lsquo;systematic\u0026rsquo; (Lavorgna, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR33\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). For instance, some offenders may pass on children (victims) to middleman contacts who then become involved as recruiters or advertisers in moving the children to the destination for sale, ceasing involvement in subsequent stages. Another experienced offender participated in the entire child trafficking process from origin to destination. In the process of child trafficking, the risk of the seller being arrested was much higher than that of the buyer. Therefore, by reducing the number of people involved in the trafficking process, offenders have been able to lower such costs and minimize the risks, and ultimately maximize benefits. The pattern was different from drug crimes, which were larger, more structured entities, often specializing in drug trafficking continuum (Manzi \u0026amp; Calderoni, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR41\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2024\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAlthough offenders tended to commit crimes closer to home area, once they find their targets, they need to move the victims to other places for sale. Their spatial decision making also appeared to be influenced by the route and distance from their home area to potential destinations, as predicted. After evaluating the economic value and constraints, offenders choose the \u0026lsquo;right\u0026rsquo; means of transportation to move children. For instance, offenders preferred to move children by car in short-distance transportation, while they would prioritize the trains, followed by buses in long-distance transportation. On the way to transfer, offenders also took advantage of the characteristics of the spatial blind area caused by the terrain conditions to hide their whereabouts, thereby reducing the risk of detection. For offenders, although traveling a longer distance incurs higher costs, the benefits they gain will be greater. Higher earnings might compensate for the cost of travel. Therefore, if the move has more success, the effort for offenders have put in to get there could be worthwhile, which is a rational response. This crime pattern seems to have a different logic from other crimes: maximizing profits and travel effectiveness are the priorities for offenders rather than minimizing costs and travel.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAt the post-activity, offenders would immediately flee their destinations, but they seldom return to their residences via the same route. This behavior is mainly influenced by the risk of being arrested and the cost of being sentenced.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"5 Discussion and Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis study aimed to provide a detailed understanding of spatial patterns of child trafficking, with particular focus on the operational steps and rational decisions of offenders. ArcGIS for spatial analysis can pinpoint the residence of offenders and crime locations down to specific cities, counties, or even villages areas. The mean, group and transportation involved in trafficking process were identified by using the crime script analysis. The results showed that habitual residence of offenders and the origin where trafficking occurs tend to overlap in space. The pattern observed could be the result of offenders being more likely to commit crime (seek targets) closer to their homes which was also near the areas where children live. This finding confirmed that most crimes proposed by the crime pattern theory occur in areas close to home areas, with criminal activity diminishes as distance increases. Loose organizational structures consisting of 3 to 5 persons were the most common crime groups in child trafficking. Offenders usually used various means of transportation to move children from the source to the destination, such as cars, buses, trains or tricycles. Child trafficking spanned a continuum involving the acquiring/purchase, transfer, keeping, advertising/introduction and sale. Offenders made decisions in different phases of child trafficking and the reasons for doing so depended on whether it was at the onset, progression or end of trafficking. In the trafficking onset, the decisions were related to what the offenders expected of the target (child). The awareness space played an important part in shaping their target choices. In the progression of the trafficking, predictable and generous returns played a significant role. After the trafficking ends, until the offender leaves the destination, the decisions made by the offenders were mainly related to the cost of punishment after being arrested. These new discoveries have not received much attention in previous studies. Compared to other types of crime, the study of child trafficking in the Chinese context enhances the variety of research areas concerning criminology of place.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThis study used crime script analysis to break up the process of child trafficking into distinct stages. This practice not only provides detailed information on each separate step in the trafficking process but also helps us better understand the motives, actions and decisions of offenders, offering significant assistance for law enforcement intervention. Addressing child trafficking is a complex and challenging task that requires coordinated efforts among multiple stakeholders across departments and regions. The interventions on the offenders should be aimed at crackdown on operational process in different phases than just a certain area. The current findings indicated that desirable targets for combating child trafficking would be the activities stage, especially in the purchasing and selling phrases. Offenders involved in these two phases occupy a large share, and they played a pivotal role in both the source regions (supply market) and destination regions (demand market) of child trafficking. Intervention measures targeting the source areas could include adjusted or optimizing for infrastructure layout or spatial function in rural, and increasing the number of surveillance facilities to reduce the chances of committing crimes. It may also include increasing investment in agricultural production and educational resources, improve the economic income and educational level of local residents, making child trafficking less attractive for offenders for their activities. Efforts to crack down on destinations areas should enhance the registration and screening of migrant populations, including children and adults. At the same time, the enforcement of criminal penalties against buyers must be strictly implemented to increase the cost and risk of crimes. Next are the intermediaries involved in the advertising or introduction phase. Without their facilitation, sellers might struggle to find buyers in need and would likely fail to successfully sell the children. Therefore, interventions targeting these offenders are expected to have a significant impact. Finally, offenders in the transportation stage played a significant role. It is suggested that inspections at transportation hubs such as railway stations, bus stations and gas stations be strengthened to increase the difficulty and risk of committing crimes and prevent victims from being further transferred from the source. It is worth noting that nowadays, with the popularization of online platforms, child trafficking has provided a novel method of transaction, breaking the regular modes of trafficking offline. Some transaction processes may be completed online, such as on social software like Wechat, Microblog, TikTok and Kwai. Some new strategies should be developing by law enforcement agencies, which may involve the use of advanced technologies, such as global position system, face recognition technology, blockchain analysis tools to track information associated with child trafficking on these platforms, in order to disrupt crime networks operating on these platforms. In summary, only by considering these traditional and novel types of transactions in combination, it may be possible to reduce the harms related to child trafficking.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eInevitably, there are some limitations present in our study. All data of offenders used in this study were obtained from China Judgments Online, mainly for criminal cases in the past 20 years. Although the Ministry of Public Security prioritizes investigating child trafficking, it is still a difficult task to detect every case. Not all court documents relating to the trials of child trafficking were uploaded to the website. One side, some special cases of trafficking did not go through the legal system and were considered inappropriate to publish online (Zhang, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR61\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2006\u003c/span\u003e). On the other side, some courts do not strictly comply with publication requirements to upload trafficking cases online. Therefore, an inevitable problem is considered to be sample selection in the study of trafficking, and researchers should be cautious about potential bias (Tyldum \u0026amp; Brunovskis, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR51\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2005\u003c/span\u003e). It is suggested that future research should collect more and larger samples through field investigation or in-depth interviews. The subsequent research should focus on criminals who have been released from prison to further reveal whether they have the motivation and actions to repeat crimes.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003ch2\u003eAuthor Contribution\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eZ. wrote the main manuscript text.L. provided fund support.G. and J. prepared figures 1-2.L. and W. processed the research data.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eArsovska, J., Kostakos, P.A., (2008). Illicit arms trafficking and the limits of rational choice theory: the case of the Balkans. Trends Organ. Crime 11, 352\u0026ndash;378. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s12117-008-9052-y\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eBao, X., Galiani, S., Li, K., \u0026amp; Long, C. (2019). Where have all the children gone? An empirical study of child abandonment and abduction in China. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3488215. Available at SSRN. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eBernasco, W. (2010). 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Scientia Geographica Sinica, 37(6):885-894. https://doi.org/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.06.010\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},{"header":"Footnotes","content":"\u003col\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003e \u003cspan class=\"ExternalRef\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"RefSource\"\u003ehttps://www.mps.gov.cn/n2254098/n4904352/c9982217/content.html\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan address=\"https://www.mps.gov.cn/n2254098/n4904352/c9982217/content.html\" targettype=\"URL\" class=\"RefTarget\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003e Note: Totals do not equal 100%, because the gender of some traffickers cannot be known.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Child trafficking, Operational steps, Decision-making, offenders, Southwest China","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7717431/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7717431/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eUsing a new database from China Judgments Online between 1990 and 2020, this study focuses on child trafficking in Southwest China. This study provides the spatial analysis and crime script analysis to examine the pattern and operational steps involved in child trafficking and the decisions made by offenders in different phrases. The results showed that habitual residence of offenders and the origin where trafficking occurs tend to overlap in space. Offenders tended to find target close to their home area, then they prefer to operate in groups of 3 to 5 members and have loose and fluid structures. Offenders preferred to move children by car in short-distance transportation, while they would prioritize the trains, followed by buses in long-distance transportation. Child trafficking spanned a continuum involving the acquiring/purchase, transfer, keeping, advertising/introduction and sale. Offenders made decisions in different phases of child trafficking and the reasons for doing so depended on whether it was at the onset or progression of trafficking. The ease of achieving a target, expected risk and expected profits are the three key factors influencing offenders. The results provide novel evidence for targeted efforts to combat and prevent child trafficking.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Investigating the operational process and decision-making of child trafficking in Southwest China","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-23 16:11:42","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7717431/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"3744eb03-57fe-44bb-9f77-86fb6bf39804","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 23rd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-04T19:53:39+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-23 16:11:42","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7717431","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7717431","identity":"rs-7717431","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}