Climate Policy under Fear of Model Misspecification

Climate Policy under Fear of Model Misspecification | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Climate Policy under Fear of Model Misspecification Jacopo Ghirri, Massimo Marinacci, Massimo Tavoni This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6813235/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Models -including those used in climate change analysis- are rough approximations of reality, and thus 'all wrong'; yet, the implications of model misspecification for climate decision-making have yet to be quantified. Here, we use recent advances in decision theory to assess how fear of model misspecification influences salient climate policy choices, such as the stringency and overshoot of the carbon budget. We apply the decision framework to emulators of IPCC scenarios, quantifying mitigation costs and economic damages from climate change. Our findings indicate that when decision-makers consider that established models may be systematically inaccurate, they adopt more stringent climate policies with lower carbon budgets and reduced reliance on emissions overshoot. These results highlight the importance of integrating deep uncertainty into climate decision-making, reinforcing the case for precautionary and robust policy choices in the face of unknown risks. Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformationClimatePolicyunderFearofModelMisspecification.pdf Supplementary Material Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6813235","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":469306522,"identity":"02887cd4-263e-46ee-87fd-bc506a27ea49","order_by":0,"name":"Jacopo Ghirri","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgYow4AZSCRUMDDwARkHGAyI1nKGgYENogWPHhgAK2FsA2pB4mMFzO2HHz4uqGCw287O++zDw3l35NjYuRMPMBT8we2wnjRj4xlnGJJ3NrMbz0jc9syYjZl3A16HMTbksEnztjEkGxwGeiJx2+HENoJa+t8ga5lDjJYZEFvsIFoaiNLyDOQXiQSwloRjUL8kGBjj1GLYnwwKMRt7g/PHmBl/1NyR4+c/u/nDhz9yuLU0AAOagUEisQHCPwChEnBqYGCQZwBrYbBnQNEyCkbBKBgFowAJAADIfk0fXF4d+AAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4181-5797","institution":"Politecnico di Milano","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jacopo","middleName":"","lastName":"Ghirri","suffix":""},{"id":469306523,"identity":"e8b0d800-84e2-4e18-9846-281c85423926","order_by":1,"name":"Massimo Marinacci","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Università Bocconi","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Massimo","middleName":"","lastName":"Marinacci","suffix":""},{"id":469306524,"identity":"e2980cd8-2a23-4705-91d6-3de35c9c921f","order_by":2,"name":"Massimo Tavoni","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5069-4707","institution":"Polytechnic University of Milan","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Massimo","middleName":"","lastName":"Tavoni","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-03 16:16:49","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6813235/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6813235/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":86013552,"identity":"1e9afed7-ebb7-4881-b086-3f1ecf07ae8f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-04 10:19:34","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":609557,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"ManuscriptClimatePolicyunderFearofModelMisspecification.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6813235/v1_covered_8ed1acf2-d19e-4f69-a2af-f2160edb06cd.pdf"},{"id":86013361,"identity":"bf1e53a2-31a2-4f38-b403-902d64b7d962","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-04 10:11:32","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":160356,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Material","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryInformationClimatePolicyunderFearofModelMisspecification.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6813235/v1/6ca487a665bb76b31d4d983d.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Climate Policy under Fear of Model Misspecification","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6813235/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6813235/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Models -including those used in climate change analysis- are rough approximations of reality, and thus 'all wrong'; yet, the implications of model misspecification for climate decision-making have yet to be quantified. 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