Late Time Weak Field Scaling Consistency Test for the Hubble and S8 Cosmological Tensions

Late Time Weak Field Scaling Consistency Test for the Hubble and S8 Cosmological Tensions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Late Time Weak Field Scaling Consistency Test for the Hubble and S8 Cosmological Tensions Andrew Morton This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8928023/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract High-precision cosmological probes show persistent, probe-dependent shifts in inferred late-time parameters, notably (i) the difference between early-time(CMB-inferred) and late-time determinations of the Hubble constant H0, and(ii) the lower late-time clustering amplitude inferred from weak lensing, often summarized by S8 ≡ σ8√(Ωm/0.3). We present a deliberately minimal and falsifiable consistency diagnostic for ΛCDM rather than a complete modified-gravity theory: we introduce a single phenomenological parameter s that rescales the effective weak-field amplitude relevant for time delays and lensing, activated only below a fixed redshift gate z∗ (fiducial value z∗ = 0.7). Under a conservative observable-level mapping (no scale dependence, no gravitational slip, and no modification to the background expansion), the same s maps onto strong-lens time-delay distance likelihoods and (approximately) onto the cosmic-shear amplitude direction. Using publicly released time-delay distance likelihood products from strong-lens cosmography and the publicly released KiDS-1000 cosmic shear posterior, we obtain slens = 0.9156 (+0.0245 / -0.0212) and sWL = 0.9023 (+0.0280 / -0.0303) (68% credible intervals), with posterior overlap O = 0.7626 and a descriptive difference-of-means proxy T = 0.4297σ. Rather than proposing a new cosmological model, this work introduces a one-parameter weak-field scaling diagnostic that can be applied directly to existing late-time observational data.The full analysis is reproducible withan open notebook that downloads the public products and records provenanceincluding repository commit identifiers and SHA-256 hashes. ΛCDM consistency cosmological tensions Hubble tension weak lensing strong lensing time delays public likelihood products Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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We present a deliberately minimal and falsifiable consistency diagnostic for ΛCDM rather than a complete modified-gravity theory: we introduce a single phenomenological parameter s that rescales the effective weak-field amplitude relevant for time delays and lensing, activated only below a fixed redshift gate z∗ (fiducial value z∗ = 0.7). Under a conservative observable-level mapping (no scale dependence, no gravitational slip, and no modification to the background expansion), the same s maps onto strong-lens time-delay distance likelihoods and (approximately) onto the cosmic-shear amplitude direction. Using publicly released time-delay distance likelihood products from strong-lens cosmography and the publicly released KiDS-1000 cosmic shear posterior, we obtain slens = 0.9156 (+0.0245 / -0.0212) and sWL = 0.9023 (+0.0280 / -0.0303) (68% credible intervals), with posterior overlap O = 0.7626 and a descriptive difference-of-means proxy T = 0.4297σ. 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