Estimation of cascading hydroclimatic hazard impacts on supply systems and associated economic shocks

Estimation of cascading hydroclimatic hazard impacts on supply systems and associated economic shocks | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Estimation of cascading hydroclimatic hazard impacts on supply systems and associated economic shocks Marlon Vieira Passos, Jung-Ching Kan, Georgia Destouni, Karina Barquet, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6446692/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Emerging systemic risks driven by climate extremes and societal vulnerabilities are causing considerable damage to supply systems and overall economies. In this study, we combined hydroclimatic hazard impact and supply-driven input-output models to develop an integrated approach for estimating the cascading impacts on food, electricity, and water supply associated with droughts, floods, and heatwaves. National-level results for Sweden indicate moderate to strong associations between annual supply variables and monthly climate indices( \(0.43 \leq R^2 \leq 0.70\) ) at municipal units. Economic modeling revealed losses in key sectors, such as agriculture, energy, and insurance. The results from this economic modeling show that hydroclimatic hazards between 2005 and 2022 inflicted €7.2 billion of economic damage on agriculture, electricity, and insurance. Of this, flood-related damage represented the largest share, totaling €3.8 billion, followed by drought-induced supply shortages (€2.6 billion), and heatwave impacts (€784 million). Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Scientific community and society/Agriculture Scientific community and society/Energy and society Scientific community and society/Water resources Hydroclimatic hazard on land cascading hazard impacts supply systems supply-driven economic input-output modelling Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 09 Jun, 2025 Reviews received at journal 09 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 03 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Jun, 2025 Reviews received at journal 13 May, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 May, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 May, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 24 Apr, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 14 Apr, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 14 Apr, 2025 First submitted to journal 14 Apr, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6446692","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":447655230,"identity":"08601f77-5595-4850-9bd4-a495393e0b07","order_by":0,"name":"Marlon Vieira 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