Global Warming and Frequency Amplification of Extreme Sea Levels

Global Warming and Frequency Amplification of Extreme Sea Levels | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Data Note Global Warming and Frequency Amplification of Extreme Sea Levels Khin Nawarat, Claudia Tebaldi, Johan Reyns, Roshanka Ranasinghe This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9300882/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Extreme sea level (ESL), a major driver of coastal flooding, is widely used as a benchmark for coastal engineering design, coastal zone management, and risk assessment. With global warming, ESL events are projected to become more frequent and intense along most of the world’s coastline. Tebaldi et al. (2021) estimated the minimum global warming level (GWL) and timing at which the present-day 100-year ESL becomes an annual event along the global ice-free coastline. Comparable information for other return periods—such as 10-, 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-year events—relevant to broader applications remains unavailable. Here, we present global datasets describing the minimum GWL and timing at which multiple present-day ESL return levels transition to annual occurrence. The datasets are derived using a multimethod framework consistent with Tebaldi et al. (2021), combining multiple global datasets of present-day ESL and projections of relative sea level change, while accounting for uncertainties. The resulting datasets provide a consistent global reference for assessing how the frequency of ESLs changes across return periods and GWLs, supporting applications in large-scale coastal impact assessment, planning, and risk analysis. Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9300882","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Data Note","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":616471428,"identity":"d2257a0d-37ea-42dc-a430-db61cff7a027","order_by":0,"name":"Khin Nawarat","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA40lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACCTiLvQFIGBwgQQsPzwGStUgkgCgitEg28B78zFNzT95e8o3ZA4aCO3IM7L2PX+DTIs3AlyzNc6zYsEc6x9yAweCZMQPPcTMLfFrkGHgMpHPYEhiBWsyk/xgcTmyQSGMzIKDF+HfOvwT7HskzZhIMBofrCWqRZuAxk85tS0jskeABa0lgkEhjfoBPi2Qzj5n1376E5J4zaWUgLYZtPMfY8OlgkDjeY3xzxrcE2/b2w9skGP4cludnb2P+gFcPM7oA0Ao2CWwq8RuD35ZRMApGwSgYaQAAovs8wDJKvD8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-2741-8896","institution":"IHE Delft Institute for Water Education","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Khin","middleName":"","lastName":"Nawarat","suffix":""},{"id":616473007,"identity":"5fa4ce10-589c-43ae-8e87-34fbb4d85ca2","order_by":1,"name":"Claudia Tebaldi","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9233-8903","institution":"University of Maryland","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Claudia","middleName":"","lastName":"Tebaldi","suffix":""},{"id":616473008,"identity":"ef9b8284-3262-47b3-9f07-043c1e7b70e8","order_by":2,"name":"Johan Reyns","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0849-1532","institution":"IHE Delft Institute for Water Education","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Johan","middleName":"","lastName":"Reyns","suffix":""},{"id":616473009,"identity":"a397dbf6-57e2-4f8d-aaed-f8d508060626","order_by":3,"name":"Roshanka Ranasinghe","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6234-2063","institution":"IHE Delft Institute for Water Education","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Roshanka","middleName":"","lastName":"Ranasinghe","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-02 09:11:22","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9300882/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9300882/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106094414,"identity":"68c19317-4d98-4925-b0af-4c2fa9e45cb3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-03 11:42:30","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":638949,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"NawaratetalESLfrequencychangebyGWLpreprint.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9300882/v1_covered_4915816f-5865-48b7-8b54-93fe1fc7a51d.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eGlobal Warming and Frequency Amplification of Extreme Sea Levels\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"IHE Delft Institute for Water Education","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9300882/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9300882/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eExtreme sea level (ESL), a major driver of coastal flooding, is widely used as a benchmark for coastal engineering design, coastal zone management, and risk assessment. With global warming, ESL events are projected to become more frequent and intense along most of the world\u0026rsquo;s coastline. Tebaldi et al. (2021) estimated the minimum global warming level (GWL) and timing at which the present-day 100-year ESL becomes an annual event along the global ice-free coastline. Comparable information for other return periods\u0026mdash;such as 10-, 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-year events\u0026mdash;relevant to broader applications remains unavailable. Here, we present global datasets describing the minimum GWL and timing at which multiple present-day ESL return levels transition to annual occurrence. The datasets are derived using a multimethod framework consistent with Tebaldi et al. (2021), combining multiple global datasets of present-day ESL and projections of relative sea level change, while accounting for uncertainties. 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