Narratives for the Future of Brazilian Agriculture A Sectoral Downscaling of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

Narratives for the Future of Brazilian Agriculture A Sectoral Downscaling of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Narratives for the Future of Brazilian Agriculture A Sectoral Downscaling of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Milena Magalhães Oliveira, Aryeverton Fortes de Oliveira, Vania Rosa Pereira, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7011493/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Despite advances in agricultural productivity, sustainable practices, and cleaner energy, Brazil’s agricultural sector remains highly vulnerable to climate change. Projected rises in temperature, water stress, and extreme weather will increasingly impact national agroecosystems. This study presents the AGROBR-SSPs (Agricultural Pathways for Brazil within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework), a set of qualitative, region-specific scenarios developed through a top-down downscaling of the global SSPs. These narratives reflect Brazil’s socio-environmental and institutional contexts, integrating key factors such as governance, economic trends, and lifestyle changes. The AGROBR-SSPs support integrated analyses of land use, crop productivity, environmental pressures, and fossil resource use. By aligning national pathways with global frameworks, the research informs climate-resilient policy and strengthens the adaptability of Brazil’s agri-food systems through 2050. Brazilian Agriculture Shared socioeconomic pathways Agriculture Storylines Climate Change Full Text Supplementary Files ManuscriptLaTeXauthorsSSPSBRASIL.pdf SMCLIMATICCHANGE.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7011493","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":515450821,"identity":"c1e27eef-6246-4696-9739-7b0cb1786bcd","order_by":0,"name":"Milena Magalhães 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