High Concentration Heightens Risk for Power Lithium-ion Battery Supply Chains Globally

High Concentration Heightens Risk for Power Lithium-ion Battery Supply Chains Globally | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article High Concentration Heightens Risk for Power Lithium-ion Battery Supply Chains Globally Youping Miao, Lili Liu, Kaihua Xu, Jinhui Li This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2083016/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 22 Apr, 2023 Read the published version in Environmental Science and Pollution Research → Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Global low-carbon contracts, along with the energy and environmental crises, have promoted the rapid development of the new-energy vehicle industry and encouraged the rapid development of the power battery industry. As the current first choice of power battery, lithium-ion batteries have overwhelming advantages. However, the explosive growth of the demand for power lithium-ion batteries is likely to cause crises such as resource shortages and supply-demand imbalances, hindering the future of the low-carbon world. This study adopts qualitative and quantitative research methods to comprehensively evaluate the global power lithium-ion battery supply and demand risks by analyzing the global material flow of these batteries. Based on data availability, we use qualitative research on the world reserves and mine production of critical raw materials and quantitative dynamic material flow analysis for the shipment, installation, and global consumption of the batteries. The results show that each process in the power lithium-ion battery industry is highly concentrated, but each within different countries or regions, creating significant risks for the raw material supply, battery shipping, and market demand sides. The comprehensive results show that the supply risk of power lithium-ion batteries is very high. Power lithium-ion batteries Supply Chains Supply-demand risk assessment Dynamic material flow analysis Critical metal materials Sustainable development Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Highlights We built a model with qualitative and quantitative methods to assess the risks of power lithium-ion batteries globally. The top 3 countries accounted 92.22% of production side in 2020. The resources, production, and consumer sides of power lithium-ion batteries are all highly concentrated. High concentration heightens risk of power lithium-ion battery supply chains globally. Introduction The global traditional energy crisis and low-carbon vision have prompted mankind to focus on the new energy industry. Many countries have released different policies to accelerate the new energy vehicle industry. As the main power source of new energy vehicles in the current and foreseeable future, lithium-ion batteries have received more and more attention. However, the manufacture of power lithium-ion batteries requires a variety of key raw materials, and the explosive growth of demand has put enormous pressure on the supply chain of power lithium-ion batteries. The risk assessment in every stage of power lithium-ion batteries is woefully inadequate. From a global perspective, this research analyses the supply and demand from raw materials to consumers. The results show that the supply chain of power lithium-ion batteries is highly concentrated at each node, and the supply risk is very high. This study also proves that the risk elements in each stage are different, which is of great significance. The energy and environmental crisis is driving a boom in the new-energy industry, and electric vehicles will play an integral role in achieving net-zero emissions, globally(IEA 2021). As the most critical component of electric vehicles, the power battery accounts for about 30% of the cost of a vehicle(Hasan et al. 2021 ), and consequently has attracted great attention(Quanhong 2021 ). Lithium-ion batteries have the characteristics of high energy density, high operating voltage, and long cycle life. They are the first choice for power batteries, and command an absolute advantage in market share. In this article, we refer to the lithium-ion batteries used to power electric vehicles as power lithium-ion batteries. Global electric vehicle sales are forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of nearly 20% over the next decade. The average capacity of single-vehicle batteries will grow at a yearly rate of about 3%, causing the global demand for power lithium-ion batteries to compound these two growth ratios, to achieve even greater growth(EV 2021, Masias et al. 2021 ). The annual need for power lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles is predicted to reach nearly 2,100 gigawatt-hours (GWh) by 2030(GREENPEACE 2020 ). But these massive power battery increments will create the new challenges of scarce resources and supply chain risks(Mayyas et al. 2019 ). The Biden administration has announced that it will discuss a $ 3 billion fund investment project to refine battery materials such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite, and to build new battery recycling facilities(HOUSE 2022). The sustainable development of power lithium-ion batteries is an essential foundation for the sustainable development of the new-energy vehicle industry. Whether power lithium-ion batteries can be supplied sustainably and reliably on a global scale will be the primary influence on the sustainable development of the new-energy vehicle industry, and hence will determine whether the necessary carbon reduction targets can be achieved. Power lithium-ion batteries include mainly cathode materials, separators, and electrolytes(Francis et al. 2020 , Hong 2015, 2021 ). Cathode materials play a vital role in the power lithium-ion battery supply chain because they involve a variety of critical and scarce strategic metals; high-nickel cathodes, especially, are becoming more and more popular(Manthiram 2020 ). However, the market demand for an increasing number of power lithium-ion batteries may lead to a severe shortage of resources such as lithium and cobalt(Yan et al. 2020 ). Various other supply uncertainties have also increased(Marcos et al. 2021 ). Any interruptions in the supply of necessary metal raw materials such as lithium could slow down the development of the new-energy automobile industry(Liu et al. 2019 ). Researchers have conducted a series of studies on this problem, due to increasing concerns about supply chain-related issues of power lithium-ion batteries(Helbig et al. 2018 ). For example, there have been multiple studies on whether recycling cathode materials can sufficiently complement the supply chain(Fan et al. 2020 , Mossali et al. 2020 , Or et al. 2020 , Xiao et al. 2020 , Zhang et al. 2018 ). Life cycle analysis(Dai et al. 2019 ), material flow analysis(Song et al. 2019 ), and other research methods involving different stages of the power lithium-ion battery supply chain have also gradually come to the attention of researchers. To study the situation and the risks within each step in the supply chain, we believe that a broad-dimensional material flow analysis, combined with appropriate data analysis, is a very suitable method. Material flow analysis is an effective method to quantitatively study the metabolism of selected objects by tracking material or energy within a specific range. It is one of the most widely accepted research tools in industrial ecology(Graedel 2019 , Islam &Huda 2019 ). Material flow analysis aims to discover a series of material or energy changes and their interrelationships, as the research object is transformed into the final product, to find ways to save resources and improve the environment(Bringezu &Moriguchi 2018 ). The Sankey diagram is the most commonly used visualization tool in material flow analysis, which generally includes conventional static material flow analysis and dynamic material flow analysis. Dynamic material flow analysis is a new type of analysis based on the data of an object that has been under study for many years; it conducts a longitudinal comparative analysis over a period of years, to evaluate whether the phenomenon under study conforms to normal development trends(Park et al. 2011 ), and then explores the reasons for any deviations from the standard development track. Compared with static material flow analysis, dynamic material flow analysis has the advantages of revealing the regularity of material flow and effectively supplementing static material flow analysis. Dynamic material flow analysis plays a vital role in accurate industrial analysis. Some researchers have begun to use dynamic material flow models to analyze the situations of metals(Liu et al. 2021 , Wang et al. 2018 , Yang et al. 2022 ), graphite(Rui et al. 2021 ), and other elements. Several scholars have tried various material flow analyses for a specific time or as part of the study of the lithium-ion battery. Liu et al. used a dynamic MFA model to analyze the industrial metabolic evolution of lithium and cobalt in lithium-ion batteries in China(Liu et al. 2021 ). Song et al. conducted a logistics analysis of critical raw materials for lithium-ion batteries in China, using a CRM-MFA model to evaluate the life cycle of essential materials in selected battery industries, and concluded that lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite are the most vital metals in the material flow(Song et al. 2019 ). Kamran et al. predicted and assessed the cumulative demand for critical metals (Li, Co, Ni, and Mn) in the UK light vehicle and power generation industries over the next 30 years and concluded that recycling end-of-life power battery packs is effective in closing the material flow gap, and can stimulate the demand for key metals(Kamran et al. 2021 ). Hu et al. explored the evolution of the dynamic trade structure network of power lithium-ion batteries from the perspective of global trade, and also studied the dynamic trade structure network evolution of power lithium-ion batteries from the worldwide trade perspective. They concluded that the worldwide power lithium-ion battery trade network has apparent heterogeneity, and suggested diversifying trade to increase the flexibility of the trading system of power lithium-ion batteries(Hu et al. 2021 ). Sun et al. assessed the supply risks in the lithium-ion battery supply chain, including mining, refining, and manufacturing stages. They believed that cobalt and nickel were the most critical materials in lithium-ion batteries(Sun et al. 2019 ), but did not consider the back end of the battery in the supply chain. Manufacturing and consumption should also be included in the evaluation system, but the adverse impact of market demand on the supply chain has not been studied. As can be seen from the above discussion, previous studies on the flow of materials in power lithium-ion batteries have mainly focused on the trade flow of individual countries or regions, or on a single stage, or have only studied the local situation of a specific part of the supply chain(Sun et al. 2019 ). To the best of our current research knowledge, no corresponding study has provided a comprehensive dynamic material flow analysis of the global flow of power lithium-ion batteries, from manufacturers to vehicle installations to battery sales within EVs. As a result, stakeholders cannot fully understand the supply and demand balance and development trends of the global supply chain of power lithium-ion batteries. To fill these gaps, a comprehensive analysis of the worldwide material flow of power lithium-ion batteries and a thorough assessment of supply risks are required, to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the industry. Methods Technical Route Based on the availability of different data types, this study adopts a combination of qualitative and quantitative research to comprehensively analyze the supply and demand risks of power lithium-ion batteries and the global dynamic material flow. We divide the raw material supply side and battery consumption side of the power lithium-ion battery into two parts (front-side and back-side). We define the mineral resource reserves and mine production stage of critical raw materials for power lithium-ion batteries as the front side, and conduct qualitative research on its supply risk. We select a five-year dataset of mine production, from 2016 to 2020 inclusive. We refer to this as a critical raw material supply risk study. For the back side, we choose the material flow process of power lithium-ion battery shipment, installation, and sales to countries worldwide, for quantitative analysis. The analysis method is dynamic material flow analysis. For this analysis of global power lithium-ion batteries, we focus on selecting two critical nodes, the supply and demand sides, for comparative analysis, to discover each node's core elements and critical risks. Finally, combined with the respective core conclusions of qualitative and quantitative research, a comprehensive assessment of global power lithium-ion battery supply and demand risks is carried out. We call it QQ-DMFA (qualitative and quantitative study - dynamic material flow analysis). For the front-side research on the supply risk of critical raw materials, we select the types of critical raw materials based on the existing research basis: According to the calculation of Argonne Laboratory in the United States, the cost of vehicle power battery materials accounts for 62% of the cost of a power battery system pack, of which the positive electrode material accounts for 48%(Argonne 2021 ). Among the cathode materials, some researchers have identified Li, Co, Ni and graphite as the most critical materials for LIB production, through essential evaluation(Song et al. 2019 ). Among these four crucial raw materials, some researchers believe that nickel, cobalt, and lithium should command the most attention in the vital supply of the lithium-ion battery market(Ou et al. 2021 ), therefore, in the analysis of raw material mineral resources, this study selected nickel, cobalt, and lithium in cathode materials as the critical analysis objects. The data come from international authoritative research institutions, such as the USGS's mineral commodity summary reports over the years(USGS 2017 , 2018 , 2019, 2020, 2021 , 2022 ). The core research method of this study is dynamic material flow analysis at the back side of the power lithium-ion battery. We focus on dynamic material flow analysis in the following. Dynamic Material Flow Analysis System boundaries Material flow analysis needs to determine the research object, time boundary, space boundary, and research process. First is the spatial boundary of the material flow and stock of the research object. Usually, a country or region is used as the research space unit. Secondly, the time boundary of the study needs to be determined. Conventional material flow or static material flow analysis generally takes a particular year or time as the research time unit. In contrast, dynamic material flow analysis typically selects a time interval of many years as the study-time boundary. Vehicle power lithium-ion batteries have surpassed consumer batteries to become the world's most significant lithium-ion battery type(Miao et al. 2022 ). Whether the vehicle power lithium-ion battery industry can develop healthily will directly affect the sustainable development of the new-energy vehicle industry, determining whether the global low-carbon goal can be achieved. In terms of the time boundary, the commercial scale of electric vehicle power lithium-ion batteries is not long, and there are consequently not many years of traceable research-worthy data available. Electric vehicles have just developed from an embryonic stage to a growth stage in the past five years. Before 2015, the commercialization of electric cars was very low. In 2015, the global sales of plug-in electric vehicles were only 570,000(IEA 2020 ). Subsequently, global electric vehicle sales have skyrocketed, from 800,000 in 2016 to 6.7 million in 2021, increasing nearly 9-fold(Carlier 2022 ). The market for power lithium-ion batteries has also exploded rapidly with the growth of electric vehicles. In 2015, the global demand for power lithium-ion batteries for cars was 19 GWh; in 2016, the market was 32 GWh, and in 2020, the total increased to more than 170 GWh(Carlier 2021 ). Overall, the available research-worthy data on automotive power lithium-ion batteries began in 2016(Nations 2021 ). Therefore, based on the development background and data research on power lithium-ion batteries, this study selected five years, from 2016 to 2020, to conduct research on vehicle lithium-ion batteries. Model structure According to the design of this research route, the core research method is quantitative dynamic material flow analysis. The research process starts with the fact that power lithium-ion batteries are shipped as a finished product. After installation, they are sold worldwide within electric vehicles (onboard sales). In order to quantitatively evaluate the supply and demand balance and perform risk analysis, this research studies the global flow of power lithium-ion batteries from the supply side to the demand side (consumer side). Not included within the scope of this research are raw material mining, the manufacturing of battery material and components, and the scrapping and recycling of power lithium-ion batteries (because very little actual industrial data are currently available for research). Therefore, the structure of the research model is as follows. In this model, the shipment of the power lithium-ion battery supply is the initial step in the dynamic material flow diagram. The next stage is the installation of the shipped batteries into electric vehicles, and the remaining batteries become the battery inventory stock for the year. After a power lithium-ion battery is installed in an electric vehicle, it fulfills part of the current year’s global demand for electric cars as it flows into the worldwide market, as shown on the demand side of the material flow diagram. The batteries in the remaining unsold vehicles become the battery sales inventory of the electric vehicle companies. The supply and demand balance curve in economics reveals the law of market economy development, and usually shows a complex dynamic balance phenomenon. There are already relatively mature models(Whelan et al. 2001 ) for this process. There are also works of literature on the supply and demand bottleneck of lithium-ion batteries(Olivetti et al. 2017 ) and the impact of lithium recycling on the supply and demand balance(Miedema &Moll 2013 ). In our model, according to the principle of the equal flow of matter or energy in material flow methodology, we chose a simplified and balanced supply and demand system: determining the point where the supply and demand curves intersect, where they are equal. The excess on both sides is taken as the stock accumulation share. The unit of calculation is GWh. The drawing tools: e!Sankey pro. Data For the global power lithium-ion battery supply-side data, including shipment and installation, the primary data sources are international authoritative power lithium-ion battery research institutions, such as SNE Research, GGII (GaoGong Industrial Research Institute), SPIR (Starting Point Institute Research), Guanyan Tianxia.com, Evergrande Researcher and other institutional webpages and related literature. Demand data for power lithium-ion batteries in various countries or regions worldwide mainly come from BloombergNEF and IEA. In addition, the source of the mineral data for critical raw materials is the USGS. Results And Discussion Critical Raw Material Supply Risk Analysis Lithium : The data on lithium mine production comes from the latest five-year USGS report: USGS mcs2017-mcs2022. The reserve data were taken from the newest version, USGS mcs2022. However, to protect the data privacy of the mining companies in the United States, the historical data of lithium mine production in the United States has not been disclosed. According to the latest USGS data in 2022, the world's lithium reserves are highly concentrated in Chile (41%), Australia (25%), Argentina (10%), and China (7%). The production of lithium ore, with similar reserves, has been concentrated in Australia (in the range of 35%-65%), Chile (15%-35%), Argentina (5%-15%) and China (5%-20%) for the past five years. No other countries or regions have any significant proportion. Details are shown below: Thanks to the rapid development of electric vehicles, the proportion of lithium used in batteries worldwide have increased yearly, from 39% in 2016 to 71% in 2020, doubling in five years. With the rapid increase in the number of electric vehicles anticipated for the future, it is predicted that the proportion of mined lithium used in batteries will continue to increase, probably exceeding 90%. Therefore, analyzing the overall situation of global lithium resources is roughly equivalent to studying the lithium resources for batteries. Cobalt The world's cobalt reserves are highly concentrated in Congo (Kinshasa) (46%), Australia (18%), Indonesia (8%) and Cuba (7%). We can find that Congo (Kinshasa) has an overwhelming advantage in the annual amount of cobalt mine production, accounting for 55%-75%, followed by Australia (less than 5%), Cuba (less than 5%), and China (less than 3%). The global data on the cobalt content of batteries, however, has been unreliable over the years. The information was 51% in 2016 and 57% in 2020. Therefore, it has been inferred that the mined cobalt used in batteries has been between 50% and 60% in recent years. From this, it can be concluded that batteries account for the most significant proportion of mined cobalt resources, and that analyzing global cobalt ore use is equivalent to qualitative research on the worldwide cobalt use in batteries. Nickel : Compared with the global reserves of lithium and cobalt resources, the global nickel reserves are relatively less concentrated in any single dominant location. Indonesia and Australia are equally divided in the proportion of nickel, and together they have become the most crucial nickel ore suppliers. To sum up, the main distribution of nickel reserves is: Indonesia (22%), Australia (22%), Brazil (17%) and Russia (8%). In terms of global nickel mine production, in the past five years, Australia's primary production share has accounted for 5%-10% globally; Russia’s, 9%-12%; Canada’s, 6%-12%; the Philippines’, 12% -17%; Brazil’s, 2%-8%; China’s, 4%-5%; and New Caledonia’s, 7%-10%. To sum up, the supply of key mineral resources for power lithium-ion battery materials is highly concentrated in a few individual countries and regions, making access to this supply somewhat fragile; any major disruption could jeopardize the production volume of power lithium-ion batteries. Based on the three essential mineral resources of cobalt, nickel and lithium, the critical core countries are Australia, Congo, Chile and Indonesia. Dynamic Material Flow Analysis for Global Power Li-Ion Batteries According to the established material flow model, we used the tool e!Sankey 4 to process the data, we chose the figures in the years 2016, 2018, and 2020 for display, and obtained the results shown below, which are mainly based on the following dynamic material flow diagram: Single-year analysis of global material flows As can be seen from the above Figures, the top ten companies in global shipments are, without exception, concentrated in three countries: China, South Korea, and Japan, of which China’s shipments account for the largest share. The installation is less than the shipment shown in the layout because a small part of the power battery flow is an inventory backlog. The number of complete vehicles sold worldwide is less than the number of installations in that year because some of the vehicles are accumulated as inventory. From the perspective of the global market of power lithium-ion batteries, the Chinese market makes up the largest share, followed by the United States, Europe minus Germany and France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan, and the market share of all the other global regions combined is small. It can be seen that the market concentration of power batteries, from raw material mineral reserves and crude ore production to battery production, on the supply side, to vehicle sales on the demand side, is very high, and that battery production is highly concentrated, in only three countries: China, Japan, and South Korea. The demand side is also mainly concentrated in the primary market countries and regions, and the current share of other countries and areas in the world is tiny, in terms of both production and demand. Multi-year dynamic material flow analysis Demand-side analysis: Global sales of new-energy vehicles are expected to reach 10 million units in 2022, and the Chinese market is expected to continue to occupy about half of the global market share due to the driving force of increasing consumption. The US market is expected to gradually increase under its new policy of stimulating the overall growth market(Tencent 2022 ). The following are the results of our research: In the global demand for power batteries, China's market share surpassed that of the United States to become the highest in the world in 2016, increasing yearly. In 2015, China accounted for 25.98% of the world's total, slightly lower than the 28.24% of the United States. In 2016, China's share rapidly increased to 48.56%, with a growth rate of 86.92%. In 2017, China's share increased to 59.93%, with a growth rate of 23.43%. In the three years from 2018 to 2020, the market share in China was relatively stable, remaining between 55% and 60%: 60.00% in 2018, 56.35% in 2019, and 57.72% in 2020. The reasons for the rapid growth of the Chinese market can be traced to China's new-energy vehicle pilot subsidy policy, established in 2009, and its new-energy vehicle purchase tax exemption, established in 2012, both of which provided a positive stimulus for the entry of new-energy vehicles in China. As another essential policy milestone, Beijing has restricted the number of vehicles registered per year since 2013, and in 2015 began to introduce traffic control measures to limit the number of ordinary cars. However, since 2017, China's subsidy system has gradually become stricter, reducing the subsidy amount for new-energy vehicles. The policy has imposed severe restrictions on the cruising range and energy consumption standards of the batteries of subsidized vehicles(DieselNet 2022 ). This has curbed destructive competition to a certain extent and slowed down the growth trend, stabilizing the market share so that it remained between 55% and 60%, from 2018 to 2020. Owning more than half of the global market share gives China a pivotal role in the power battery market, especially as the market shares of developed countries such as the United States, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom have changed little in the last few years. Although the overall number of vehicles in those countries has shown an upward trend, their global market shares have shown a downward trend, year by year, partly because of the rise of the Chinese market and partly because the recent global economic downturn has brought about instability in the new-energy policies in some of those countries, offsetting their growth momentum. For supply-side analysis: To understand the development of the proportion of leading battery-producing companies, we have summarized and analyzed the cumulative shipments and installation of the world's top three, top five, and top three countries for the past five years. In 2016, the top three battery-producing companies in the world accounted for 44.42% of world production; by 2020, this had risen to 67.91%. In 2016, the total share of the top five companies globally was 56.42%. After a brief decline in 2017, the total percentage of the world's top five companies rose to 80.51% in 2020. At the national level, in 2016, the top three countries in the world accounted for 71.79% of the total production, and by 2020, the combined proportion of the top three countries had increased to 92.22%. China’s production proportion has been declining year by year. In 2016, the proportion of Chinese enterprises was 49.05%, and by 2020, it had dropped to 37.64%. Furthermore, China's ratio of super enterprises that account for more than 10% of global production has been decreasing yearly. Between 2016 and 2018, the high-production enterprises dropped to two: CATL and BYD. Then, after 2019, BYD's proportion started dropping, eventually falling out of the top 10%, leaving only one enterprise in this category—CATL, leading to China's total share of the production ratio falling significantly. By contrast, the proportion of South Korean companies has risen rapidly, from 7.58% in 2016 to 37.48% in 2020, globally, similar to the situation of Chinese companies. The rise of South Korea's share is mainly due to the rapid development of the South Korean company LGC in recent years. In 2016, their shipments accounted for 5.26%, and installation for 4.3%. By 2020, shipments had risen to 24.88%, installation capacity to 22.46%, and the other Korean companies, SDI and SKI, have also performed well. The proportion of Japanese companies has remained relatively stable. The only more competitive company has always been Panasonic, which accounted for 15.16% in 2016, increased to about 21% in 2018 and 2019, and dropped to 17.11% in 2020. Comprehensive Supply and Demand Risk Assessment Overall, the development trend of the power lithium-ion battery industry in recent years has been excellent. The power lithium-ion battery has shown a rapid growth trend from both the supply and demand sides. However, the new-energy market is still in an immature stage of development. Although the market is growing by leaps and bounds, the current share of new-energy vehicles in the overall vehicle market is not high. In recent years, it has remained in a situation of supply exceeding demand. However, the gap between supply and demand is gradually decreasing. With the significant increase in the market for power batteries and the limitation of the total amount of original resource reserves, it is expected that the power lithium-ion battery industry will shortly be in a short-supply market situation. The global distribution of the critical raw mineral resources needed for power lithium-ion batteries is as follows: the front-end key raw material lithium is concentrated in Australia and Chile, cobalt is concentrated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Australia, and nickel is concentrated in Australia and Indonesia. The countries where power lithium-ion battery manufacturers are also highly concentrated, mainly China, Japan, and South Korea. Since there is no overlap between these two lists, the front-end and back-end supply chain risks are relatively high. Furthermore, the core countries on the consumer side are China, the United States, Europe, etc. Compared to the above-mentioned key countries and regions, the proportion of other countries and regions is minute and not proportional to the overall economic volumes of countries in the world. For example, India and South Africa among the BRICS countries, and the OECD organization countries such as Canada, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, and Finland are not included in the list of core countries on either the supply side or the demand side. The most likely reason the market development of power lithium-ion batteries is not distributed proportionally to economic growth is that the electric vehicle industry is still in an early stage of development, and a country’s policies on, and technical levels of, new-energy development significantly affect the demand for power lithium-ion batteries. It is predicted that this situation will change in the next few decades when the electric vehicle market matures and the proportion of electric vehicles in the overall automobile market surpasses that of fossil-fueled vehicles and becomes the primary road vehicle. Then, outside the list, other countries and regions will significantly impact the market supply and demand layout changes. It is also expected that the development pattern of the power lithium-ion battery industry will undergo more remarkable changes in the future. Conclusion There are three aspects of power lithium-ion battery supply and demand: raw material supply, battery production and installation, and market demand, and all three are highly segmented; the core countries in each link are different. This segmentation puts the development and supply of the entire industry at significant risk. These three links restrict and affect each other. A problem in critical countries within any of the key links could cause considerable risk to the global supply balance of power lithium-ion batteries. The power lithium-ion battery market still has a long way to go for actual global development, and power lithium-ion batteries' supply and demand risks are relatively high into the foreseeable future. With more promotional policies, the market for power batteries will continue to grow. In recent years, Germany, Italy, France, and other countries have extended or increased subsidies for new-energy vehicles. France started subsidizing cars with low carbon emissions in January 2020, at the level of 6,000 or 3000 euros. In addition, countries such as Canada, China, France and Germany have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions in years to come. These policies will stimulate the future development of the new-energy industry and therefore of the power lithium-ion battery industry. However, the impact of indirect emissions from EV battery production, on the low-carbon transition, needs to be taken into account, and this effect may be another risk constraining the development of EVs(Wolfram et al. 2021 ). Battery recycling can play a buffer role in reducing the supply risk of key resources(Harper et al. 2019 ). A study shows that in China, by 2050, battery recycling alone may be able to meet 60% of the battery demand in the automotive market(Ou et al. 2021 ). However, with the explosive development of the futures market, the challenges, and risks faced by the future power lithium-ion battery industry will be even more severe than most current forecasts. If the existing constraints and problems are not addressed, the vast market of power lithium batteries may experience severe limitations. In addition, it should be noted that with the continuous evolution of technology, supply risk and overwhelming environmental risk have become the most significant constraints on the development of future power batteries. Declarations Ethical approval We declare that current research fully abides by both local and international guidelines of ethical research regulations. Consent to participate Not applicable Consent to publish All authors have explicit consent to publish this article submitted to ESPR. Availability of data and materials All source data used in this study is included in this manuscript and the supplementary information files. Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests. Author contributions All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Youping Miao : Conceptualization, Data Curation, Writing - Original Draft, Visualization, Writing - Review & Editing, Software. Lili Liu : Supervision, Writing- Reviewing and Editing. K aihua Xu : Investigation, Data Curation. Jinhui Li : Resources, Supervision, Writing- Reviewing and Editing. Funding& Acknowledgments This research is supported by National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFC1908504) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (52270127). Competing Interests The authors declare no competing interests. References Argonne SA (2021): Estmated Cost of EV Batteries 2018-2021, https://www.anl.gov/cse/batpac-model-software Bringezu S, Moriguchi Y (2018): Material flow analysis, Green accounting. Routledge, pp. 149-166 Carlier M (2021): Global electric vehicle lithium-ion battery requirement from 2014 to 2020(in gigawatt hours). Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/871057/lithium-ion-battery-demand-for-passenger-evs/ Carlier M (2022): Estimated plug-in electric light vehicle sales worldwide from 2015 to 2021. 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Materials Today Energy 14, 100347 Tencent (2022): 2021 Lithium Battery Industry Research Report https://new.qq.com/omn/20220110/20220110A01EKD00.html USGS 2017: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2017, https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/prd-wret/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pubs/mcs/mcs2017.pdf USGS 2018: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2018, https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/prd-wret/assets/palladium/production/mineral-pubs/mcs/mcs2018.pdf USGS 2019: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2019, https://prd-wret.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/atoms/files/mcs2019_all.pdf USGS 2020: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2020, https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020.pdf USGS 2021: Mineral commodity summaries 2021, Reston, VA USGS 2022: Mineral commodity summaries 2022, https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/mcs2022 Wang P, Li W, Kara S (2018): Dynamic life cycle quantification of metallic elements and their circularity, efficiency, and leakages. Journal of Cleaner Production 174, 1492-1502 Whelan J, Msefer K, Chung CV (2001): Economic supply & demand. MIT Wolfram P, Weber S, Gillingham K, Hertwich EG (2021): Pricing indirect emissions accelerates low—carbon transition of US light vehicle sector. Nature Communications 12, 7121 Xiao J, Li J, Xu Z (2020): Challenges to Future Development of Spent Lithium Ion Batteries Recovery from Environmental and Technological Perspectives. Environmental Science & Technology 54, 9-25 Yan W, Cao H, Zhang Y, Ning P, Song Q, Yang J, Sun Z (2020): Rethinking Chinese supply resilience of critical metals in lithium-ion batteries. Journal of Cleaner Production 256, 120719 Yang C, Zhang L, Chen Z, Gao Y, Xu Z (2022): Dynamic material flow analysis of aluminum from automobiles in China during 2000–2050 for standardized recycling management. Journal of Cleaner Production 337, 130544 Zhang J, Hu J, Zhang W, Chen Y, Wang C (2018): Efficient and economical recovery of lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese from cathode scrap of spent lithium-ion batteries. Journal of cleaner production 204, 437-446 Supplementary Files ListofAcronyms.pdf SupplementaryMaterial.pdf TOC.tif Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 22 Apr, 2023 Read the published version in Environmental Science and Pollution Research → Version 1 posted Reviewers invited by journal 15 Dec, 2022 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Oct, 2022 Editor assigned by journal 27 Sep, 2022 First submitted to journal 23 Sep, 2022 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-2083016","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":144135771,"identity":"31837bd4-4106-4335-9a40-4555aac47f14","order_by":0,"name":"Youping Miao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tsinghua University school of environment","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Youping","middleName":"","lastName":"Miao","suffix":""},{"id":144135772,"identity":"02640f3e-1329-4e65-a556-221608d2d8a8","order_by":1,"name":"Lili Liu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tsinghua University school of environment","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lili","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":144135773,"identity":"0f8a7c0e-1232-493f-bc95-d349083153b8","order_by":2,"name":"Kaihua Xu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National WEEE Recycling Engineering Research Centre","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kaihua","middleName":"","lastName":"Xu","suffix":""},{"id":144135774,"identity":"db089884-ae55-47b0-bbf4-db1136761593","order_by":3,"name":"Jinhui Li","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA6ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxmYGNgYGAxsGBmYwAoEEorSkSRCvBQiAWhgOS4BYxGlhbuc99pin4HydfDvv4deFbXYM/Ow5Bgw/d+BzGF+6MY/BbQmDw3xp1jPbkhkke94YMPaewaeFx0warIWZx8yYt42ZweBGjgEzYxtBLeck5JvBWuoZ7InUckCC4TCP8WPetsMMBhJEaJGcY5AsueEwjxkzz7njPBJnnhUc7MWjxbD/jJnEmz92/PL9Z4w/85RVy/G3J2988BOflgYEmw0UOTwg1gHcGhgY5JHYzB/wqRwFo2AUjIKRCwDcX0F4tgzs8AAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7819-478X","institution":"Tsinghua University","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jinhui","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2022-09-20 04:08:41","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-2083016/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2083016/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-27035-9","type":"published","date":"2023-04-22T20:30:47+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":27886747,"identity":"a3d5b8c9-8003-4879-a3f6-2c2ce51bf3f4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-10-17 18:43:21","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":394399,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eDynamic material flow analysis model for global power lithium-ion batteries\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2083016/v1/d11cf30203f83efc606fc05b.png"},{"id":27886355,"identity":"96ca96d8-1060-4ea0-80e0-123870374986","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-10-17 18:38:21","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":749096,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eProportions of global lithium, nickel, and cobalt reserves and mine production: (a) World lithium reserves, (b) Proportions of global lithium mine production, 2016-2020, (c) World cobalt reserves, (d) Proportions of global cobalt mine production, 2016-2020，(e) World Nickel reserves, (f) Proportions of global nickel mine production, 2016-2020.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2083016/v1/408189bd76c250075a60813d.png"},{"id":27886354,"identity":"505ab6b7-0dbf-4c05-85b2-ba90bfe0be73","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-10-17 18:38:21","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":684456,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFlow analysis of the global power lithium-ion battery market in 2016\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2083016/v1/b89e72443855b3bc4fd3fe9c.png"},{"id":27886357,"identity":"8d2092bf-4aa5-4e5b-93e3-151aea8d9061","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-10-17 18:38:21","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":669592,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFlow analysis of the global power lithium-ion battery market in 2018\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2083016/v1/d1c5bee07adb572792d530b1.png"},{"id":27886361,"identity":"552eba0d-9f33-47e0-8486-1ed56629c085","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-10-17 18:38:21","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":616306,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFlow analysis of the global power lithium-ion battery market in 2020\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2083016/v1/c5bae4e2603e37ec085a256e.png"},{"id":27886359,"identity":"b4904b4d-4516-4716-aeb3-3e9a9426abed","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-10-17 18:38:21","extension":"png","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":876172,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eGlobal supply and demand trends of power lithium-ion batteries: (a) Global demand for power lithium-ion batteries, 2015-2020, (b) Global supply and demand trends of power lithium-ion batteries, 2015-2020, (c) Proportions of the top three and top five enterprises, and top three countries, with global power lithium-ion battery manufacturers, (d)Trends in the proportions of the top three countries in the global power lithium-ion battery.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2083016/v1/240debbf31bd9e2619b2a765.png"},{"id":44725948,"identity":"9954000a-4c97-4229-a7f0-9d5e25dcdd1b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2023-10-16 20:44:33","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2231917,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2083016/v1/d5cf9c4f-3179-441f-8144-f9527ff1252b.pdf"},{"id":27886748,"identity":"41cb7318-14a1-4312-b154-0cb634fa4ca0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-10-17 18:43:21","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":55378,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ListofAcronyms.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2083016/v1/401decc407d541d5456f3ac2.pdf"},{"id":27886749,"identity":"278da070-6dec-42b3-8f07-48a667315614","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-10-17 18:43:21","extension":"pdf","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":291299,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryMaterial.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2083016/v1/75d9717d241682a4415f4309.pdf"},{"id":27886950,"identity":"86a1f257-75d7-4b28-ad87-d2c7e31903d6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-10-17 18:48:21","extension":"tif","order_by":3,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":1393236,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"TOC.tif","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-2083016/v1/edbe183f561278fdc82841df.tif"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"High Concentration Heightens Risk for Power Lithium-ion Battery Supply Chains Globally","fulltext":[{"header":"Highlights","content":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eWe built a model with qualitative and quantitative methods to assess the risks of power lithium-ion batteries globally.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe top 3 countries accounted 92.22% of production side in 2020.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eThe resources, production, and consumer sides of power lithium-ion batteries are all highly concentrated.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eHigh concentration heightens risk of power lithium-ion battery supply chains globally.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"},{"header":"Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe global traditional energy crisis and low-carbon vision have prompted mankind to focus on the new energy industry. Many countries have released different policies to accelerate the new energy vehicle industry. As the main power source of new energy vehicles in the current and foreseeable future, lithium-ion batteries have received more and more attention. However, the manufacture of power lithium-ion batteries requires a variety of key raw materials, and the explosive growth of demand has put enormous pressure on the supply chain of power lithium-ion batteries. The risk assessment in every stage of power lithium-ion batteries is woefully inadequate. From a global perspective, this research analyses the supply and demand from raw materials to consumers. The results show that the supply chain of power lithium-ion batteries is highly concentrated at each node, and the supply risk is very high. This study also proves that the risk elements in each stage are different, which is of great significance.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe energy and environmental crisis is driving a boom in the new-energy industry, and electric vehicles will play an integral role in achieving net-zero emissions, globally(IEA 2021). As the most critical component of electric vehicles, the power battery accounts for about 30% of the cost of a vehicle(Hasan et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR13\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e), and consequently has attracted great attention(Quanhong \u003cspan citationid=\"CR15\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Lithium-ion batteries have the characteristics of high energy density, high operating voltage, and long cycle life. They are the first choice for power batteries, and command an absolute advantage in market share. In this article, we refer to the lithium-ion batteries used to power electric vehicles as power lithium-ion batteries.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGlobal electric vehicle sales are forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of nearly 20% over the next decade. The average capacity of single-vehicle batteries will grow at a yearly rate of about 3%, causing the global demand for power lithium-ion batteries to compound these two growth ratios, to achieve even greater growth(EV 2021, Masias et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR26\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). The annual need for power lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles is predicted to reach nearly 2,100 gigawatt-hours (GWh) by 2030(GREENPEACE \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). But these massive power battery increments will create the new challenges of scarce resources and supply chain risks(Mayyas et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR27\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). The Biden administration has announced that it will discuss a \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e3\u0026nbsp;billion fund investment project to refine battery materials such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite, and to build new battery recycling facilities(HOUSE 2022). The sustainable development of power lithium-ion batteries is an essential foundation for the sustainable development of the new-energy vehicle industry. Whether power lithium-ion batteries can be supplied sustainably and reliably on a global scale will be the primary influence on the sustainable development of the new-energy vehicle industry, and hence will determine whether the necessary carbon reduction targets can be achieved.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePower lithium-ion batteries include mainly cathode materials, separators, and electrolytes(Francis et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e, Hong 2015, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR15\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Cathode materials play a vital role in the power lithium-ion battery supply chain because they involve a variety of critical and scarce strategic metals; high-nickel cathodes, especially, are becoming more and more popular(Manthiram \u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). However, the market demand for an increasing number of power lithium-ion batteries may lead to a severe shortage of resources such as lithium and cobalt(Yan et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR52\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). Various other supply uncertainties have also increased(Marcos et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR25\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Any interruptions in the supply of necessary metal raw materials such as lithium could slow down the development of the new-energy automobile industry(Liu et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). Researchers have conducted a series of studies on this problem, due to increasing concerns about supply chain-related issues of power lithium-ion batteries(Helbig et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). For example, there have been multiple studies on whether recycling cathode materials can sufficiently complement the supply chain(Fan et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e, Mossali et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR30\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e, Or et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR34\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e, Xiao et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR51\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e, Zhang et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR54\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). Life cycle analysis(Dai et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR5\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e), material flow analysis(Song et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR39\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e), and other research methods involving different stages of the power lithium-ion battery supply chain have also gradually come to the attention of researchers. To study the situation and the risks within each step in the supply chain, we believe that a broad-dimensional material flow analysis, combined with appropriate data analysis, is a very suitable method.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMaterial flow analysis is an effective method to quantitatively study the metabolism of selected objects by tracking material or energy within a specific range. It is one of the most widely accepted research tools in industrial ecology(Graedel \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e, Islam \u0026amp;Huda \u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). Material flow analysis aims to discover a series of material or energy changes and their interrelationships, as the research object is transformed into the final product, to find ways to save resources and improve the environment(Bringezu \u0026amp;Moriguchi \u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e). The Sankey diagram is the most commonly used visualization tool in material flow analysis, which generally includes conventional static material flow analysis and dynamic material flow analysis. Dynamic material flow analysis is a new type of analysis based on the data of an object that has been under study for many years; it conducts a longitudinal comparative analysis over a period of years, to evaluate whether the phenomenon under study conforms to normal development trends(Park et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR36\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2011\u003c/span\u003e), and then explores the reasons for any deviations from the standard development track. Compared with static material flow analysis, dynamic material flow analysis has the advantages of revealing the regularity of material flow and effectively supplementing static material flow analysis. Dynamic material flow analysis plays a vital role in accurate industrial analysis. Some researchers have begun to use dynamic material flow models to analyze the situations of metals(Liu et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e, Wang et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR48\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e, Yang et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR53\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e), graphite(Rui et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR38\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e), and other elements.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSeveral scholars have tried various material flow analyses for a specific time or as part of the study of the lithium-ion battery. Liu et al. used a dynamic MFA model to analyze the industrial metabolic evolution of lithium and cobalt in lithium-ion batteries in China(Liu et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Song et al. conducted a logistics analysis of critical raw materials for lithium-ion batteries in China, using a CRM-MFA model to evaluate the life cycle of essential materials in selected battery industries, and concluded that lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite are the most vital metals in the material flow(Song et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR39\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). Kamran et al. predicted and assessed the cumulative demand for critical metals (Li, Co, Ni, and Mn) in the UK light vehicle and power generation industries over the next 30 years and concluded that recycling end-of-life power battery packs is effective in closing the material flow gap, and can stimulate the demand for key metals(Kamran et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR21\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Hu et al. explored the evolution of the dynamic trade structure network of power lithium-ion batteries from the perspective of global trade, and also studied the dynamic trade structure network evolution of power lithium-ion batteries from the worldwide trade perspective. They concluded that the worldwide power lithium-ion battery trade network has apparent heterogeneity, and suggested diversifying trade to increase the flexibility of the trading system of power lithium-ion batteries(Hu et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Sun et al. assessed the supply risks in the lithium-ion battery supply chain, including mining, refining, and manufacturing stages. They believed that cobalt and nickel were the most critical materials in lithium-ion batteries(Sun et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR40\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e), but did not consider the back end of the battery in the supply chain. Manufacturing and consumption should also be included in the evaluation system, but the adverse impact of market demand on the supply chain has not been studied.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs can be seen from the above discussion, previous studies on the flow of materials in power lithium-ion batteries have mainly focused on the trade flow of individual countries or regions, or on a single stage, or have only studied the local situation of a specific part of the supply chain(Sun et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR40\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). To the best of our current research knowledge, no corresponding study has provided a comprehensive dynamic material flow analysis of the global flow of power lithium-ion batteries, from manufacturers to vehicle installations to battery sales within EVs. As a result, stakeholders cannot fully understand the supply and demand balance and development trends of the global supply chain of power lithium-ion batteries. To fill these gaps, a comprehensive analysis of the worldwide material flow of power lithium-ion batteries and a thorough assessment of supply risks are required, to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the industry.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Methods","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003eTechnical Route\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eBased on the availability of different data types, this study adopts a combination of qualitative and quantitative research to comprehensively analyze the supply and demand risks of power lithium-ion batteries and the global dynamic material flow. We divide the raw material supply side and battery consumption side of the power lithium-ion battery into two parts (front-side and back-side). We define the mineral resource reserves and mine production stage of critical raw materials for power lithium-ion batteries as the front side, and conduct qualitative research on its supply risk. We select a five-year dataset of mine production, from 2016 to 2020 inclusive. We refer to this as a critical raw material supply risk study. For the back side, we choose the material flow process of power lithium-ion battery shipment, installation, and sales to countries worldwide, for quantitative analysis. The analysis method is dynamic material flow analysis. For this analysis of global power lithium-ion batteries, we focus on selecting two critical nodes, the supply and demand sides, for comparative analysis, to discover each node's core elements and critical risks. Finally, combined with the respective core conclusions of qualitative and quantitative research, a comprehensive assessment of global power lithium-ion battery supply and demand risks is carried out. We call it QQ-DMFA (qualitative and quantitative study - dynamic material flow analysis).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFor the front-side research on the supply risk of critical raw materials, we select the types of critical raw materials based on the existing research basis: According to the calculation of Argonne Laboratory in the United States, the cost of vehicle power battery materials accounts for 62% of the cost of a power battery system pack, of which the positive electrode material accounts for 48%(Argonne \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Among the cathode materials, some researchers have identified Li, Co, Ni and graphite as the most critical materials for LIB production, through essential evaluation(Song et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR39\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). Among these four crucial raw materials, some researchers believe that nickel, cobalt, and lithium should command the most attention in the vital supply of the lithium-ion battery market(Ou et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR35\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e), therefore, in the analysis of raw material mineral resources, this study selected nickel, cobalt, and lithium in cathode materials as the critical analysis objects. The data come from international authoritative research institutions, such as the USGS's mineral commodity summary reports over the years(USGS \u003cspan citationid=\"CR42\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR43\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e, 2019, 2020, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR46\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR47\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). The core research method of this study is dynamic material flow analysis at the back side of the power lithium-ion battery. We focus on dynamic material flow analysis in the following.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003eDynamic Material Flow Analysis\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec5\" class=\"Section3\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003eSystem boundaries\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eMaterial flow analysis needs to determine the research object, time boundary, space boundary, and research process. First is the spatial boundary of the material flow and stock of the research object. Usually, a country or region is used as the research space unit. Secondly, the time boundary of the study needs to be determined. Conventional material flow or static material flow analysis generally takes a particular year or time as the research time unit. In contrast, dynamic material flow analysis typically selects a time interval of many years as the study-time boundary. Vehicle power lithium-ion batteries have surpassed consumer batteries to become the world's most significant lithium-ion battery type(Miao et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR28\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). Whether the vehicle power lithium-ion battery industry can develop healthily will directly affect the sustainable development of the new-energy vehicle industry, determining whether the global low-carbon goal can be achieved.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn terms of the time boundary, the commercial scale of electric vehicle power lithium-ion batteries is not long, and there are consequently not many years of traceable research-worthy data available. Electric vehicles have just developed from an embryonic stage to a growth stage in the past five years. Before 2015, the commercialization of electric cars was very low. In 2015, the global sales of plug-in electric vehicles were only 570,000(IEA \u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). Subsequently, global electric vehicle sales have skyrocketed, from 800,000 in 2016 to 6.7\u0026nbsp;million in 2021, increasing nearly 9-fold(Carlier \u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). The market for power lithium-ion batteries has also exploded rapidly with the growth of electric vehicles. In 2015, the global demand for power lithium-ion batteries for cars was 19 GWh; in 2016, the market was 32 GWh, and in 2020, the total increased to more than 170 GWh(Carlier \u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Overall, the available research-worthy data on automotive power lithium-ion batteries began in 2016(Nations \u003cspan citationid=\"CR31\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Therefore, based on the development background and data research on power lithium-ion batteries, this study selected five years, from 2016 to 2020, to conduct research on vehicle lithium-ion batteries.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec6\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003eModel structure\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccording to the design of this research route, the core research method is quantitative dynamic material flow analysis. The research process starts with the fact that power lithium-ion batteries are shipped as a finished product. After installation, they are sold worldwide within electric vehicles (onboard sales). In order to quantitatively evaluate the supply and demand balance and perform risk analysis, this research studies the global flow of power lithium-ion batteries from the supply side to the demand side (consumer side). Not included within the scope of this research are raw material mining, the manufacturing of battery material and components, and the scrapping and recycling of power lithium-ion batteries (because very little actual industrial data are currently available for research). Therefore, the structure of the research model is as follows.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn this model, the shipment of the power lithium-ion battery supply is the initial step in the dynamic material flow diagram. The next stage is the installation of the shipped batteries into electric vehicles, and the remaining batteries become the battery inventory stock for the year. After a power lithium-ion battery is installed in an electric vehicle, it fulfills part of the current year\u0026rsquo;s global demand for electric cars as it flows into the worldwide market, as shown on the demand side of the material flow diagram. The batteries in the remaining unsold vehicles become the battery sales inventory of the electric vehicle companies.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe supply and demand balance curve in economics reveals the law of market economy development, and usually shows a complex dynamic balance phenomenon. There are already relatively mature models(Whelan et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR49\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2001\u003c/span\u003e) for this process. There are also works of literature on the supply and demand bottleneck of lithium-ion batteries(Olivetti et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR33\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2017\u003c/span\u003e) and the impact of lithium recycling on the supply and demand balance(Miedema \u0026amp;Moll \u003cspan citationid=\"CR29\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2013\u003c/span\u003e). In our model, according to the principle of the equal flow of matter or energy in material flow methodology, we chose a simplified and balanced supply and demand system: determining the point where the supply and demand curves intersect, where they are equal. The excess on both sides is taken as the stock accumulation share. The unit of calculation is GWh.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe drawing tools: e!Sankey pro.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec7\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003eData\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eFor the global power lithium-ion battery supply-side data, including shipment and installation, the primary data sources are international authoritative power lithium-ion battery research institutions, such as SNE Research, GGII (GaoGong Industrial Research Institute), SPIR (Starting Point Institute Research), Guanyan Tianxia.com, Evergrande Researcher and other institutional webpages and related literature. Demand data for power lithium-ion batteries in various countries or regions worldwide mainly come from BloombergNEF and IEA. In addition, the source of the mineral data for critical raw materials is the USGS.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"Results And Discussion","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec9\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003eCritical Raw Material Supply Risk Analysis\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eLithium\u003c/b\u003e: The data on lithium mine production comes from the latest five-year USGS report: USGS mcs2017-mcs2022. The reserve data were taken from the newest version, USGS mcs2022. However, to protect the data privacy of the mining companies in the United States, the historical data of lithium mine production in the United States has not been disclosed.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccording to the latest USGS data in 2022, the world's lithium reserves are highly concentrated in Chile (41%), Australia (25%), Argentina (10%), and China (7%). The production of lithium ore, with similar reserves, has been concentrated in Australia (in the range of 35%-65%), Chile (15%-35%), Argentina (5%-15%) and China (5%-20%) for the past five years. No other countries or regions have any significant proportion. Details are shown below:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThanks to the rapid development of electric vehicles, the proportion of lithium used in batteries worldwide have increased yearly, from 39% in 2016 to 71% in 2020, doubling in five years. With the rapid increase in the number of electric vehicles anticipated for the future, it is predicted that the proportion of mined lithium used in batteries will continue to increase, probably exceeding 90%. Therefore, analyzing the overall situation of global lithium resources is roughly equivalent to studying the lithium resources for batteries.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eCobalt\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe world's cobalt reserves are highly concentrated in Congo (Kinshasa) (46%), Australia (18%), Indonesia (8%) and Cuba (7%). We can find that Congo (Kinshasa) has an overwhelming advantage in the annual amount of cobalt mine production, accounting for 55%-75%, followed by Australia (less than 5%), Cuba (less than 5%), and China (less than 3%). The global data on the cobalt content of batteries, however, has been unreliable over the years. The information was 51% in 2016 and 57% in 2020. Therefore, it has been inferred that the mined cobalt used in batteries has been between 50% and 60% in recent years. From this, it can be concluded that batteries account for the most significant proportion of mined cobalt resources, and that analyzing global cobalt ore use is equivalent to qualitative research on the worldwide cobalt use in batteries.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eNickel\u003c/b\u003e: Compared with the global reserves of lithium and cobalt resources, the global nickel reserves are relatively less concentrated in any single dominant location. Indonesia and Australia are equally divided in the proportion of nickel, and together they have become the most crucial nickel ore suppliers. To sum up, the main distribution of nickel reserves is: Indonesia (22%), Australia (22%), Brazil (17%) and Russia (8%). In terms of global nickel mine production, in the past five years, Australia's primary production share has accounted for 5%-10% globally; Russia\u0026rsquo;s, 9%-12%; Canada\u0026rsquo;s, 6%-12%; the Philippines\u0026rsquo;, 12% -17%; Brazil\u0026rsquo;s, 2%-8%; China\u0026rsquo;s, 4%-5%; and New Caledonia\u0026rsquo;s, 7%-10%.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTo sum up, the supply of key mineral resources for power lithium-ion battery materials is highly concentrated in a few individual countries and regions, making access to this supply somewhat fragile; any major disruption could jeopardize the production volume of power lithium-ion batteries. Based on the three essential mineral resources of cobalt, nickel and lithium, the critical core countries are Australia, Congo, Chile and Indonesia.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec10\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003eDynamic Material Flow Analysis for Global Power Li-Ion Batteries\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"BlockQuote\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccording to the established material flow model, we used the tool \u003cem\u003ee!Sankey 4\u003c/em\u003e to process the data, we chose the figures in the years 2016, 2018, and 2020 for display, and obtained the results shown below, which are mainly based on the following dynamic material flow diagram:\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec11\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003eSingle-year analysis of global material flows\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs can be seen from the above Figures, the top ten companies in global shipments are, without exception, concentrated in three countries: China, South Korea, and Japan, of which China\u0026rsquo;s shipments account for the largest share. The installation is less than the shipment shown in the layout because a small part of the power battery flow is an inventory backlog. The number of complete vehicles sold worldwide is less than the number of installations in that year because some of the vehicles are accumulated as inventory.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom the perspective of the global market of power lithium-ion batteries, the Chinese market makes up the largest share, followed by the United States, Europe minus Germany and France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan, and the market share of all the other global regions combined is small. It can be seen that the market concentration of power batteries, from raw material mineral reserves and crude ore production to battery production, on the supply side, to vehicle sales on the demand side, is very high, and that battery production is highly concentrated, in only three countries: China, Japan, and South Korea. The demand side is also mainly concentrated in the primary market countries and regions, and the current share of other countries and areas in the world is tiny, in terms of both production and demand.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec12\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003eMulti-year dynamic material flow analysis\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"BlockQuote\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eDemand-side analysis: Global sales of new-energy vehicles are expected to reach 10\u0026nbsp;million units in 2022, and the Chinese market is expected to continue to occupy about half of the global market share due to the driving force of increasing consumption. The US market is expected to gradually increase under its new policy of stimulating the overall growth market(Tencent \u003cspan citationid=\"CR41\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). The following are the results of our research:\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn the global demand for power batteries, China's market share surpassed that of the United States to become the highest in the world in 2016, increasing yearly. In 2015, China accounted for 25.98% of the world's total, slightly lower than the 28.24% of the United States. In 2016, China's share rapidly increased to 48.56%, with a growth rate of 86.92%. In 2017, China's share increased to 59.93%, with a growth rate of 23.43%. In the three years from 2018 to 2020, the market share in China was relatively stable, remaining between 55% and 60%: 60.00% in 2018, 56.35% in 2019, and 57.72% in 2020. The reasons for the rapid growth of the Chinese market can be traced to China's new-energy vehicle pilot subsidy policy, established in 2009, and its new-energy vehicle purchase tax exemption, established in 2012, both of which provided a positive stimulus for the entry of new-energy vehicles in China. As another essential policy milestone, Beijing has restricted the number of vehicles registered per year since 2013, and in 2015 began to introduce traffic control measures to limit the number of ordinary cars. However, since 2017, China's subsidy system has gradually become stricter, reducing the subsidy amount for new-energy vehicles. The policy has imposed severe restrictions on the cruising range and energy consumption standards of the batteries of subsidized vehicles(DieselNet \u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). This has curbed destructive competition to a certain extent and slowed down the growth trend, stabilizing the market share so that it remained between 55% and 60%, from 2018 to 2020.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOwning more than half of the global market share gives China a pivotal role in the power battery market, especially as the market shares of developed countries such as the United States, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom have changed little in the last few years. Although the overall number of vehicles in those countries has shown an upward trend, their global market shares have shown a downward trend, year by year, partly because of the rise of the Chinese market and partly because the recent global economic downturn has brought about instability in the new-energy policies in some of those countries, offsetting their growth momentum.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFor supply-side analysis: To understand the development of the proportion of leading battery-producing companies, we have summarized and analyzed the cumulative shipments and installation of the world's top three, top five, and top three countries for the past five years. In 2016, the top three battery-producing companies in the world accounted for 44.42% of world production; by 2020, this had risen to 67.91%. In 2016, the total share of the top five companies globally was 56.42%. After a brief decline in 2017, the total percentage of the world's top five companies rose to 80.51% in 2020.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAt the national level, in 2016, the top three countries in the world accounted for 71.79% of the total production, and by 2020, the combined proportion of the top three countries had increased to 92.22%. China\u0026rsquo;s production proportion has been declining year by year. In 2016, the proportion of Chinese enterprises was 49.05%, and by 2020, it had dropped to 37.64%. Furthermore, China's ratio of super enterprises that account for more than 10% of global production has been decreasing yearly. Between 2016 and 2018, the high-production enterprises dropped to two: CATL and BYD. Then, after 2019, BYD's proportion started dropping, eventually falling out of the top 10%, leaving only one enterprise in this category\u0026mdash;CATL, leading to China's total share of the production ratio falling significantly.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBy contrast, the proportion of South Korean companies has risen rapidly, from 7.58% in 2016 to 37.48% in 2020, globally, similar to the situation of Chinese companies. The rise of South Korea's share is mainly due to the rapid development of the South Korean company LGC in recent years. In 2016, their shipments accounted for 5.26%, and installation for 4.3%. By 2020, shipments had risen to 24.88%, installation capacity to 22.46%, and the other Korean companies, SDI and SKI, have also performed well. The proportion of Japanese companies has remained relatively stable. The only more competitive company has always been Panasonic, which accounted for 15.16% in 2016, increased to about 21% in 2018 and 2019, and dropped to 17.11% in 2020.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec13\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003eComprehensive Supply and Demand Risk Assessment\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"BlockQuote\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eOverall, the development trend of the power lithium-ion battery industry in recent years has been excellent. The power lithium-ion battery has shown a rapid growth trend from both the supply and demand sides. However, the new-energy market is still in an immature stage of development. Although the market is growing by leaps and bounds, the current share of new-energy vehicles in the overall vehicle market is not high. In recent years, it has remained in a situation of supply exceeding demand. However, the gap between supply and demand is gradually decreasing. With the significant increase in the market for power batteries and the limitation of the total amount of original resource reserves, it is expected that the power lithium-ion battery industry will shortly be in a short-supply market situation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe global distribution of the critical raw mineral resources needed for power lithium-ion batteries is as follows: the front-end key raw material lithium is concentrated in Australia and Chile, cobalt is concentrated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Australia, and nickel is concentrated in Australia and Indonesia. The countries where power lithium-ion battery manufacturers are also highly concentrated, mainly China, Japan, and South Korea. Since there is no overlap between these two lists, the front-end and back-end supply chain risks are relatively high. Furthermore, the core countries on the consumer side are China, the United States, Europe, etc.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCompared to the above-mentioned key countries and regions, the proportion of other countries and regions is minute and not proportional to the overall economic volumes of countries in the world. For example, India and South Africa among the BRICS countries, and the OECD organization countries such as Canada, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, and Finland are not included in the list of core countries on either the supply side or the demand side. The most likely reason the market development of power lithium-ion batteries is not distributed proportionally to economic growth is that the electric vehicle industry is still in an early stage of development, and a country\u0026rsquo;s policies on, and technical levels of, new-energy development significantly affect the demand for power lithium-ion batteries. It is predicted that this situation will change in the next few decades when the electric vehicle market matures and the proportion of electric vehicles in the overall automobile market surpasses that of fossil-fueled vehicles and becomes the primary road vehicle. Then, outside the list, other countries and regions will significantly impact the market supply and demand layout changes. It is also expected that the development pattern of the power lithium-ion battery industry will undergo more remarkable changes in the future.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eThere are three aspects of power lithium-ion battery supply and demand: raw material supply, battery production and installation, and market demand, and all three are highly segmented; the core countries in each link are different. This segmentation puts the development and supply of the entire industry at significant risk. These three links restrict and affect each other. A problem in critical countries within any of the key links could cause considerable risk to the global supply balance of power lithium-ion batteries. The power lithium-ion battery market still has a long way to go for actual global development, and power lithium-ion batteries' supply and demand risks are relatively high into the foreseeable future.\u003cdiv class=\"BlockQuote\"\u003e\u003cp\u003eWith more promotional policies, the market for power batteries will continue to grow. In recent years, Germany, Italy, France, and other countries have extended or increased subsidies for new-energy vehicles. France started subsidizing cars with low carbon emissions in January 2020, at the level of 6,000 or 3000 euros. In addition, countries such as Canada, China, France and Germany have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions in years to come. These policies will stimulate the future development of the new-energy industry and therefore of the power lithium-ion battery industry. However, the impact of indirect emissions from EV battery production, on the low-carbon transition, needs to be taken into account, and this effect may be another risk constraining the development of EVs(Wolfram et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR50\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). Battery recycling can play a buffer role in reducing the supply risk of key resources(Harper et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). A study shows that in China, by 2050, battery recycling alone may be able to meet 60% of the battery demand in the automotive market(Ou et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR35\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2021\u003c/span\u003e). However, with the explosive development of the futures market, the challenges, and risks faced by the future power lithium-ion battery industry will be even more severe than most current forecasts. If the existing constraints and problems are not addressed, the vast market of power lithium batteries may experience severe limitations. In addition, it should be noted that with the continuous evolution of technology, supply risk and overwhelming environmental risk have become the most significant constraints on the development of future power batteries.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEthical approval\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe declare that current research fully abides by both local and international guidelines of ethical research regulations.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConsent to participate\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNot applicable\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConsent to publish\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAll authors have explicit consent to publish this article submitted to ESPR.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAvailability of data and materials\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAll source data used in this study is included in this manuscript and the supplementary information files.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCompeting interests\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;The authors declare no competing interests.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAuthor contributions\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAll authors contributed to the study conception and design.\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;Youping Miao\u003c/strong\u003e: Conceptualization, Data Curation, Writing - Original Draft, Visualization, Writing - Review \u0026amp; Editing, Software. \u003cstrong\u003eLili Liu\u003c/strong\u003e: Supervision, Writing- Reviewing and Editing. \u003cstrong\u003eK\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eaihua Xu\u003c/strong\u003e: Investigation, Data Curation. \u003cstrong\u003eJinhui Li\u003c/strong\u003e: Resources, Supervision, Writing- Reviewing and Editing.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFunding\u0026amp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAcknowledgments\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis research is supported by National Key R\u0026amp;D Program of China (2019YFC1908504)\u0026nbsp;and National Natural Science Foundation of China (52270127).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCompeting Interests\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors declare no competing interests.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eArgonne SA (2021): Estmated Cost of EV Batteries 2018-2021, https://www.anl.gov/cse/batpac-model-software\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eBringezu S, Moriguchi Y (2018): Material flow analysis, Green accounting. 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Journal of cleaner production 204, 437-446\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-science-and-pollution-research","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"espr","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Science and Pollution Research](https://www.springer.com/journal/11356)","snPcode":"11356","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11356/3","title":"Environmental Science and Pollution Research","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Power lithium-ion batteries, Supply Chains, Supply-demand risk assessment, Dynamic material flow analysis, Critical metal materials, Sustainable development ","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-2083016/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2083016/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eGlobal low-carbon contracts, along with the energy and environmental crises, have promoted the rapid development of the new-energy vehicle industry and encouraged the rapid development of the power battery industry. As the current first choice of power battery, lithium-ion batteries have overwhelming advantages. However, the explosive growth of the demand for power lithium-ion batteries is likely to cause crises such as resource shortages and supply-demand imbalances, hindering the future of the low-carbon world. This study adopts qualitative and quantitative research methods to comprehensively evaluate the global power lithium-ion battery supply and demand risks by analyzing the global material flow of these batteries. Based on data availability, we use qualitative research on the world reserves and mine production of critical raw materials and quantitative dynamic material flow analysis for the shipment, installation, and global consumption of the batteries. The results show that each process in the power lithium-ion battery industry is highly concentrated, but each within different countries or regions, creating significant risks for the raw material supply, battery shipping, and market demand sides. The comprehensive results show that the supply risk of power lithium-ion batteries is very high.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"High Concentration Heightens Risk for Power Lithium-ion Battery Supply Chains Globally","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2022-10-17 18:38:19","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-2083016/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2022-12-15T16:51:11+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2022-10-14T01:52:41+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2022-09-27T04:15:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Environmental Science and Pollution Research","date":"2022-09-23T06:10:14+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-science-and-pollution-research","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"espr","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Science and Pollution Research](https://www.springer.com/journal/11356)","snPcode":"11356","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11356/3","title":"Environmental Science and Pollution Research","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"15002b92-7dc0-4b8d-8f6b-cb68e1f75f03","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 17th, 2022","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2023-10-16T20:38:29+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-2083016","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-27035-9","journal":{"identity":"environmental-science-and-pollution-research","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Environmental Science and Pollution Research"},"publishedOn":"2023-04-22 20:30:47","publishedOnDateReadable":"April 22nd, 2023"},"versionCreatedAt":"2022-10-17 18:38:19","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s11356-023-27035-9","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-27035-9","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-2083016","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-2083016","identity":"rs-2083016","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"WrCJVZZCHTDjtuVLN7oU0","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}